The comeback tour continues…

First, he founded a $47 billion co-working company (sorry, a “tech company”).

He established WeLive to disrupt apartment life.

Then he created WeGrow, a school that tossed aside the usual curriculum to feed children's souls and release their potential.

He raised the world’s consciousness.

Then he blew it all up (without raising the world’s consciousness). (He bought a wave pool.)

Adam Neumann's WeWork business burned investors' money. The founder sailed off with unimaginable riches, leaving long-time employees with worthless stocks and the company bleeding money. His track record, which includes a failing baby clothing company, should have stopped investors cold.

Once the dust settled, folks went on. We forgot about the Neumanns! We forgot about the private jets, company retreats, many houses, and WeWork's crippling. In that moment, the prodigal son of entrepreneurship returned, choosing the blockchain as his industry. His homecoming tour began with Flowcarbon, which sold Goddess Nature Tokens to lessen companies' carbon footprints.

Did it work?

Of course not.

Despite receiving $70 million from Andreessen Horowitz's a16z, the project has been halted just two months after its announcement.

This triumph should lower his grade.

Neumann seems to have moved on and has another revolutionary idea for the future of living. Flow (not Flowcarbon) aims to help people live in flow and will launch in 2023. It's the classic Neumann pitch: lofty goals, yogababble, and charisma to attract investors.

It's a winning formula for one investment fund. a16z has backed the project with its largest single check, $350 million. It has a splash page and 3,000 rental units, but is valued at over $1 billion. The blog post praised Neumann for reimagining the office and leading a paradigm-shifting global company.

Flow's mission is to solve the nation's housing crisis. How? Idk. It involves offering community-centric services in apartment properties to the same remote workforce he once wooed with free beer and a pingpong table. Revolutionary! It seems the goal is to apply WeWork's goals of transforming physical spaces and building community to apartments to solve many of today's housing problems.

The elevator pitch probably sounded great.

At least a16z knows it's a near-impossible task, calling it a seismic shift. Marc Andreessen opposes affordable housing in his wealthy Silicon Valley town. As details of the project emerge, more investors will likely throw ethics and morals out the window to go with the flow, throwing money at a man known for burning through it while building toxic companies, hoping he can bank another fantasy valuation before it all crashes.

Insanity is repeating the same action and expecting a different result. Everyone on the Neumann hype train needs to sober up.

Like WeWork, this venture Won’tWork.

Like before, it'll cause a shitstorm.

One-hour ebook sales, affiliate relationships, and more.

If you follow me, you may know I started a new ebook in August 2022.

Despite publishing on this platform, my website, and Quora, I'm not a writer.

My writing speed is slow, 2,000 words a day, and I struggle to communicate cohesively.

In April 2022, I wrote a successful guide on How to Write Google-Friendly Blog Posts.

I had no email list or social media presence. I've made $1,600+ selling ebooks.

Evidence:

My first digital offering isn't a book.

It's an actionable guide with my tried-and-true process for writing Google-friendly content.

I'm not bragging.

Established authors like Tim Denning make more from my ebook sales with one newsletter.

This experience taught me writing isn't a privilege.

Writing a book and making money online doesn't require expertise.

Many don't consult experts. They want someone approachable.

Two years passed before I realized my own limits.

I have a brain, two hands, and Internet to spread my message.

I wrote and published a second ebook after the first's success.

On Gumroad, I released my second digital product.

Here's my complete Gumroad evaluation.

Gumroad is a marketplace for content providers to develop and sell sales pages.

Gumroad handles payments and client requests. It's helpful when someone sends a bogus payment receipt requesting an ebook (actual story!).

You'll forget administrative concerns after your first ebook sale.

After my first ebook sale, I did this: I made additional cash!

After every sale, I tell myself, "I built a new semi-passive revenue source."

This thinking shift helps me become less busy while increasing my income and quality of life.

Besides helping others, folks sell evergreen digital things to earn passive money.

It's in my second ebook.

I explain how I built and sold 50+ copies of my SEO writing ebook without being an influencer.

I show how anyone can sell ebooks on Gumroad and automate their sales process.

This is my ebook.

After publicizing the ebook release, I sold three copies within an hour.

Wow, or meh?

I don’t know.

The answer is different for everyone.

These three sales came from a small email list of 40 motivated fans waiting for my ebook release.

I had bigger plans.

I'll market my ebook on Medium, my website, Quora, and email.

I'm testing affiliate partnerships this time.

One of my ebook buyers is now promoting it for 40% commission.

Become my affiliate if you think your readers would like my ebook.

My ebook is a few days old, but I'm interested to see where it goes.

My SEO writing book started without an email list, affiliates, or 4,000 website visitors. I've made four figures.

I'm slowly expanding my communication avenues to have more impact.

Even a small project can open doors you never knew existed.

So began my writing career.

In summary

If you dare, every concept can become a profitable trip.

Before, I couldn't conceive of creating an ebook.

How to Sell eBooks on Gumroad is my second digital product.

Marketing and writing taught me that anything can be sold online.

Higher startup valuations are often favorable for all parties. High valuations show a business's potential. New customers and talent are attracted. They earn respect.

Everyone benefits if a company's valuation rises.

Founders and investors have always been incentivized to overestimate a company's value.

Post-money valuations were inflated by 2021 market expectations and the valuation model's mechanisms.

Founders must understand both levers to handle a normalizing market.

2021, the year of miracles

2021 must've seemed miraculous to entrepreneurs, employees, and VCs. Valuations rose, and funding resumed after the first Covid-19 epidemic caution.

In 2021, VC investments increased from $335B to $643B. 518 new worldwide unicorns vs. 134 in 2020; 951 US IPOs vs. 431.

Things can change quickly, as 2020-21 showed.

Rising interest rates, geopolitical developments, and normalizing technology conditions drive down share prices and tech company market caps in 2022. Zoom, the poster-child of early lockdown success, is down 37% since 1st Jan.

Once-inflated valuations can become a problem in a normalizing market, especially for founders, employees, and early investors.

the reason why startups are always overvalued

To see why inflated valuations are a problem, consider one of its causes.

Private company values only fluctuate following a new investment round, unlike publicly-traded corporations. The startup's new value is calculated simply:

(Latest round share price) x (total number of company shares)

This is the industry standard Post-Money Valuation model.

Let’s illustrate how it works with an example. If a VC invests $10M for 1M shares (at $10/share), and the company has 10M shares after the round, its Post-Money Valuation is $100M (10/share x 10M shares).

This approach might seem like the most natural way to assess a business, but the model often unintentionally overstates the underlying value of the company even if the share price paid by the investor is fair. All shares aren't equal.

New investors in a corporation will always try to minimize their downside risk, or the amount they lose if things go wrong. New investors will try to negotiate better terms and pay a premium.

How the value of a struggling SpaceX increased

SpaceX's 2008 Series D is an example. Despite the financial crisis and unsuccessful rocket launches, the company's Post-Money Valuation was 36% higher after the investment round. Why?

Series D SpaceX shares were protected. In case of liquidation, Series D investors were guaranteed a 2x return before other shareholders.

Due to downside protection, investors were willing to pay a higher price for this new share class.

The Post-Money Valuation model overpriced SpaceX because it viewed all the shares as equal (they weren't).

Why entrepreneurs, workers, and early investors stand to lose the most

Post-Money Valuation is an effective and sufficient method for assessing a startup's valuation, despite not taking share class disparities into consideration.

In a robust market, where the firm valuation will certainly expand with the next fundraising round or exit, the inflated value is of little significance.

Fairness endures. If a corporation leaves at a greater valuation, each stakeholder will receive a proportional distribution. (i.e., 5% of a $100M corporation yields $5M).

SpaceX's inherent overvaluation was never a problem. Had it been sold for less than its Post-Money Valuation, some shareholders, including founders, staff, and early investors, would have seen their ownership drop.

The unforgiving world of 2022

In 2022, founders, employees, and investors who benefited from inflated values will face below-valuation exits and down-rounds.

For them, 2021 will be a curse, not a blessing.

Some tech giants are worried. Klarna's valuation fell from $45B (Oct 21) to $30B (Jun 22), Canvas from $40B to $27B, and GoPuffs from $17B to $8.3B.

Shazam and Blue Apron have to exit or IPO at a cheaper price. Premium share classes are protected, while others receive less. The same goes for bankrupts.

Those who continue at lower valuations will lose reputation and talent. When their value declines by half, generous employee stock options become less enticing, and their ability to return anything is questioned.

What can we infer about the present situation?

Such techniques to enhance your company's value or stop a normalizing market are fiction.

The current situation is a painful reminder for entrepreneurs and a crucial lesson for future firms.

The devastating market fall of the previous six months has taught us one thing:

1. Keep in mind that any valuation is speculative. Money Post A startup's valuation is a highly simplified approximation of its true value, particularly in the early phases when it lacks significant income or a cutting-edge product. It is merely a projection of the future and a hypothetical meter. Until it is achieved by an exit, a valuation is nothing more than a number on paper.
   

2. Assume the value of your company is lower than it was in the past. Your previous valuation might not be accurate now due to substantial changes in the startup financing markets. There is little reason to think that your company's value will remain the same given the 50%+ decline in many newly listed IT companies. Recognize how the market situation is changing and use caution.
   

3. Recognize the importance of the stake you hold. Each share class has a unique value that varies. Know the sort of share class you own and how additional contractual provisions affect the market value of your security. Frameworks have been provided by Metrick and Yasuda (Yale & UC) and Gornall and Strebulaev (Stanford) for comprehending the terms that affect investors' cash-flow rights upon withdrawal. As a result, you will be able to more accurately evaluate your firm and determine the worth of each share class.
   

4. Be wary of approving excessively protective share terms.
   The trade-offs should be considered while negotiating subsequent rounds. Accepting punitive contractual terms could first seem like a smart option in order to uphold your inflated worth, but you should proceed with caution. Such provisions ALWAYS result in misaligned shareholders, with common shareholders (such as you and your staff) at the bottom of the list.

Effective: August 31, 2022

These Terms of Service ("Terms") govern your access to and use of INTΞGRITY’s (or "we") websites, mobile applications, and other online products and services (collectively, the "Services"). By clicking your assent (e.g. "Continue," "Sign-in," or "Sign-up") or by utilizing our Services, you consent to these Terms, including the mandatory arbitration provision and class action waiver in the Resolving Disputes; Binding Arbitration Section.

Our Privacy Policy describes how we gather and utilize your information, while our Rules detail your duties when utilizing our Services. You agree to be bound by these Terms and our Rules by utilizing our Services. Please refer to our Privacy Statement for details on how we collect, utilize, disclose, and otherwise manage your information.

Please contact us at hello@int3grity.com if you have any queries regarding these Terms or our Services.

Account Details and Responsibilities

You are responsible for your use of the Services and any content you contribute, including compliance with all relevant laws. The Services may host content that is protected by the intellectual property rights of third parties. Please do not copy, post, download, or distribute content without permission.

You must adhere to our Rules when using the Services.

To use any or all of our services, you may need to register for an account. Contribute to the protection of your account. Protect your account's password, and maintain accurate account details. We advise you not to share your password with anyone else.

If you are accepting these Terms and using the Services on behalf of someone else (such as another person or entity), you confirm that you are allowed to do so, and the words "you" or "your" in these Terms refer to that other person or entity.

You must be at least 13 years old to access our services.

If you use the Services to access, collect, or otherwise utilize the personal information of other INTΞGRITY users ("Personal Information"), you agree to comply with all applicable laws. You also undertake not to sell any Personal Information, where "sell" has the meaning ascribed to it by relevant legislation.

For Personal Information you provide to us (as a Newsletter Editor, for example), you represent and warrant that you have lawfully collected the Personal Information and that you or a third party have provided all required notices and obtained all required consents prior to collecting the Personal Information. You further represent and warrant that INTΞGRITY’s use of such Personal Information in accordance with the purposes for which you provided the Personal Information will not violate, misappropriate, or infringe any rights of a third party (including intellectual property rights or privacy rights) or cause us to violate any applicable laws.

The Services' User Content

INTΞGRITY may monitor your conduct and material for compliance with these Terms and our Rules, and reserves the right to remove any content that violates these guidelines.

INTΞGRITY maintains the right to remove or disable content that is accused to violate the intellectual property rights of others, as well as to cancel the accounts of repeat infringers. We respond to notifications of alleged copyright violations if they comply with the law; please report such notices using our Copyright Policy.

Ownership and Rights

You maintain ownership of all content that you submit, upload, or display on or through the Services.

By submitting, posting, or displaying content on or through the Services, unless otherwise agreed in writing, you grant INTΞGRITY a nonexclusive, royalty-free, worldwide, fully paid, and sublicensable license to use, reproduce, modify, adapt, publish, translate, create derivative works from, distribute, publicly perform and display your content and any name, username or likeness provided in connection with your content in all media formats and distribution methods now known or later developed.

INTΞGRITY requires this license because you are the owner of your material, and INTΞGRITY cannot show it across its multiple platforms (mobile, online) without your consent.

This type of license is also required for content distribution throughout our Services. For example, you may publish a piece on INTΞGRITY. It is duplicated as versions on both our website and app, and distributed to many locations on INTΞGRITY, including the homepage and reading lists. A tweak could be that we display a fragment of your work as a preview (rather than the entire post), with attribution. An example of a derivative work might be a list of top authors or quotations on INTΞGRITY that includes chunks of your article, again with full attribution. This license solely applies to our Services and does not grant us permissions outside of our Services.

So long as you comply with these Terms, INTΞGRITY grants you a limited, non-exclusive, personal, and non-transferable license to access and utilize our Services.

Copyright, trademark, and other United States and international laws protect the Services. These Terms do not grant you any right, title, or interest in the Services, the material posted by other users on the Services, or INTΞGRITY’s trademarks, logos, or other brand characteristics.

In addition to the content you submit, post, or display on our Services, we appreciate your feedback, which may include your thoughts, ideas, and suggestions regarding our Services. This input may be used for any reason at our sole discretion and without obligation to you. We may treat your comments as non-confidential.

We reserve the right, at our sole discretion, to discontinue the Services or any of its features. In addition, we reserve the right to impose limits on use and storage, and to remove or restrict the distribution of content on the Services.

Termination

You are allowed to terminate your use of our services at any time. We have the right to stop or cancel your use of the Services with or without notice.

Moving and Processing Information

To enable us to deliver our Services, you accept that we may handle, transfer, and retain information about you in the United States and other countries, where you may not enjoy the same rights and protections as you do under local law.

Indemnification

To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, you will indemnify, defend, and hold harmless INTΞGRITY, and our officers, directors, agents, partners, and employees (collectively, the "INTΞGRITY Parties"), from and against any losses, liabilities, claims, demands, damages, expenses or costs ("Claims") arising out of or relating to your violation, misappropriation, or infringement of any rights of another (including intellectual property rights or privacy rights). You undertake to promptly notify INTΞGRITY Parties of any third-party Claims, to assist INTΞGRITY Parties in fighting such Claims, and to pay any fees, charges, and expenses connected with defending such Claims (including attorneys' fees). You further agree that, at INTΞGRITY’s sole discretion, the INTΞGRITY Parties will govern the defense or settlement of any third-party Claims.

Disclaimers — Services Provided "As Is"

INTΞGRITY strives to provide you with excellent Services, but there are certain things we cannot guarantee. Utilization of our services is at your own risk. You acknowledge that our Services and any content uploaded or shared by users on the Services are given "as is" and "as available" without explicit or implied warranties of any kind, including warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, and non-infringement. In addition, INTΞGRITY does not represent or promise that our Services are accurate, comprehensive, dependable, up-to-date, or error-free. No advice or information gained from INTΞGRITY or via the Services shall create any warranty or representation unless expressly set forth in this section. INTΞGRITY may provide information on third-party products, services, activities, or events, or we may permit third parties to make their material and information accessible via our Services (collectively, "Third-Party Content"). We neither control nor endorse any Third-Party Content, nor do we make any claims or warranties about it. Accessing and utilizing Third-Party Content is at your own risk. The disclaimers in this section may not apply to you if they are prohibited in your location.

Limitation of Liability

We do not exclude or limit our obligation to you where it would be unlawful to do so; this includes any liability for the gross negligence, fraud, or willful misconduct of INTΞGRITY or the other INTΞGRITY Parties in providing the Services. In jurisdictions where the foregoing exclusions are not permitted, our liability to you is limited to losses and damages that are reasonably foreseeable as a result of our failure to exercise reasonable care and skill or breach of contract with you. This paragraph does not impact consumer rights that cannot be waived or limited by contract.

In jurisdictions that permit liability exclusions or limits, INTΞGRITY and INTΞGRITY Parties will not be liable for:

(a) Any indirect, consequential, exemplary, incidental, punitive, or extraordinary damages, or any loss of use, data, or profits, based on any legal theory, even if INTΞGRITY or the other INTΞGRITY Parties were advised of the potential of such damages.

(b) Except for the types of liability we cannot limit by law (as described in this section), we limit the total liability of INTΞGRITY and the other INTΞGRITY Parties for any claim arising out of or related to these Terms or our Services, regardless of the form of action, to $100.00 USD.

Arbitration; Resolution of Disputes

We intend to address your concerns without filing a formal lawsuit. Before making a claim against INTΞGRITY, you agree to contact us and attempt to resolve the dispute informally by emailing hello@int3grity.com or by sending certified mail to INTΞGRITY, P.O. JOY, 479 Jessie St, San Francisco, CA 94103. The notice must (a) contain your name, address, email address, and telephone number; (b) identify the nature and grounds of the claim; and (c) detail the relief requested. Our notice to you will be sent to the email address linked with your online account and will contain the information specified in the preceding section. Any party may commence a formal procedure if we are unable to reach a resolution within thirty (30) days of the date of any notice.

Please read the following section carefully because it compels you to arbitrate certain claims and disputes with INTΞGRITY and limits the method in which you can seek redress from us, unless you opt out of arbitration by following the steps provided below. This arbitration provision does not permit class or representative lawsuits or arbitrations. In addition, arbitration prohibits you from filing a lawsuit or having a jury trial.

(a) Absence of Representative Actions You and INTΞGRITY agree that any dispute arising out of or relating to these Terms or our Services is personal to you and INTΞGRITY and will be resolved entirely via individual action, and not by class arbitration, class action, or other representative procedure.

(b) Dispute Arbitration. Except for small claims disputes in which you or INTΞGRITY seeks to bring an individual action in small claims court located in the county where you reside and disputes in which you or INTΞGRITY seeks injunctive or other equitable relief for the alleged infringement or misappropriation of intellectual property, you and INTΞGRITY waive your rights to a jury trial and to have any other dispute arising out of or relating to these Terms or our Services, including claims related to privity of contract, decided by a jury. All Disputes submitted to JAMS shall be decided by confidential, binding arbitration before a single arbitrator. If you are a consumer, you may choose to have the arbitration in your county of residence. A "consumer" is a person who uses the Services for personal, family, or household purposes for the purposes of this provision. You and INTΞGRITY agree that Disputes shall be resolved using the JAMS Streamlined Arbitration Rules and Procedures ("JAMS Rules"). The latest version of the JAMS Rules is accessible on the JAMS website and is incorporated herein by reference. Either you accept and agree that you have read and comprehended the JAMS Rules or you forfeit your right to read the JAMS Rules and any claim that the JAMS Rules are unreasonable or should not apply for any reason.

(c) You and INTΞGRITY agree that these Terms affect interstate commerce and that the enforceability of this provision is subject to the Federal Arbitration Act, 9 U.S.C. 1 et seq. (the "FAA"), to the maximum extent permissible by applicable law. As limited by the FAA, these Terms, and the JAMS Rules, the arbitrator will have sole authority to make all procedural and substantive judgments regarding any Dispute, and to grant any remedy that would otherwise be available in court, including the authority to determine arbitrability. The arbitrator may only conduct an individual arbitration and may not consolidate the claims of more than one party, preside over any sort of class or representative procedure, or preside over any proceeding involving more than one party.

d) The arbitration will permit the discovery or exchange of nonconfidential information pertinent to the Dispute. The arbitrator, INTΞGRITY, and you will maintain the confidentiality of all arbitration proceedings, judgments, and awards, as well as any information gathered, prepared, or presented for the purposes of the arbitration or relating to the Dispute(s) therein. Unless the law specifies otherwise, the arbitrator will have the right to make decisions that protect confidentiality. The duty of confidentiality does not apply where disclosure is required to prepare for or conduct the arbitration hearing on the merits, in connection with a court application for a preliminary remedy, in connection with a judicial challenge to an arbitration award or its enforcement, or where disclosure is otherwise required by law or judicial decision.

e) You and INTΞGRITY agree that for any arbitration you begin, you will pay the filing fee (up to $250 if you are a consumer) and INTΞGRITY will pay the remaining JAMS fees and costs. INTΞGRITY will pay all JAMS fees and costs for any and all arbitrations it initiates. You and INTΞGRITY agree that the state and federal courts of California and the United States located in San Francisco have exclusive jurisdiction over any appeals and the implementation of an arbitration award.

(f) Any Dispute must be filed within one year after the relevant claim arose; otherwise, the Dispute is permanently barred, meaning that neither you nor INTΞGRITY will be able to assert the claim.

(g) You have the right to opt-out of binding arbitration within 30 days of the date you initially accepted the terms of this section by sending an email to hello@int3grity.com. For the opt-out notification to be effective, it must include your full name and address and clearly explain your intent to opt out of binding arbitration. By declining binding arbitration, you consent to the resolution of Disputes in accordance with "Governing Law and Venue" below.

(h) If any portion of this section is found to be unenforceable or unlawful for any reason: (1) the unenforceable or unlawful provision shall be severed from these Terms; (2) the severance of the unenforceable or unlawful provision shall have no effect whatsoever on the remainder of this section or the parties' ability to compel arbitration of any remaining claims on an individual basis pursuant to this section; and (3) to the extent that any claims must therefore proceed on an individual basis, the parties agree to arbitrate those claims on an individual basis. In addition, if it is determined that any portion of this section prohibits an individual claim seeking public injunctive relief, that provision will be null and void to the extent that such relief may be sought outside of arbitration, and the balance of this section will be enforceable.

Statute and Location

These Terms and any dispute that may arise between you and INTΞGRITY are governed by California law, excluding its conflict of law provisions. Any issue between the parties that is not arbitrable or cannot be heard in small claims court will be determined by the state or federal courts of California and the United States, sitting in San Francisco, California.

Some nations have regulations that require agreements to be controlled by the consumer's country's laws. These statutes are not overridden by this paragraph.

Amendments

Periodically, we may make modifications to these Terms. If we make modifications, we will notify you by sending an email to the address connected with your account, providing an in-product message, or amending the date at the top of these Terms. Unless we specify otherwise in our notification, the modified Terms will take effect immediately, and your continued use of our Services after we issue such notice indicates your acceptance of the changes. If you do not accept the updated Terms, you must cease using our services.

Severability

If any section or portion of a provision of these Terms is determined to be unlawful, void, or unenforceable, that provision or part of the provision shall be deemed severable from these Terms and shall not affect the validity and enforceability of the other terms.

Miscellaneous INTΞGRITY’s omission to assert or enforce any right or term of these Terms is not a waiver of such right or provision. These Terms and the terms and policies specified in the Other Terms and Policies that May Apply to You Section constitute the complete agreement between the parties pertaining to the subject matter hereof and supersede all prior agreements, statements, and understandings between the parties. The section headings in these Terms are for convenience only and have no legal or contractual significance. The use of the word "including" shall be taken to mean "including without limitation." Unless otherwise specified, these Terms are intended solely for the benefit of the parties and are not intended to confer third-party beneficiary rights on any other person or entity. You consent to the use of electronic means for our communications and transactions.

What quarterly bank earnings reveal

Big banks know the economy best. Unless we’re talking about a housing crisis in 2007…

Banks are crucial to the U.S. economy. The Fed, communities, and investments exchange money.

An economy depends on money flow. Banks' views on the economy can affect their decision-making.

Most large banks released quarterly earnings and forward guidance last week. Others were pessimistic about the future.

What Makes Banks Confident

Bank of America's profit decreased 30% year-over-year, but they're optimistic about the economy. Comparatively, they're bullish.

Who banks serve affects what they see. Bank of America supports customers.

They think consumers' future is bright. They believe this for many reasons.

The average customer has decent credit, unless the system is flawed. Bank of America's new credit card and mortgage borrowers averaged 771. New-car loan and home equity borrower averages were 791 and 797.

2008's housing crisis affected people with scores below 620.

Bank of America and the economy benefit from a robust consumer. Major problems can be avoided if individuals maintain spending.

Reasons Other Banks Are Less Confident

Spending requires income. Many companies, mostly in the computer industry, have announced they will slow or freeze hiring. Layoffs are frequently an indication of poor times ahead.

BOA is positive, but investment banks are bearish.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, outlined various difficulties our economy could confront.

But geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity, combined with the war in Ukraine and its harmful effect on global energy and food prices are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road.

That's more headwinds than tailwinds.

JPMorgan, which helps with mergers and IPOs, is less enthusiastic due to these concerns. Incoming headwinds signal drying liquidity, they say. Less business will be done.

Final Reflections

I don't think we're done. Yes, stocks are up 10% from a month ago. It's a long way from old highs.

I don't think the stock market is a strong economic indicator.

Many executives foresee a 2023 recession. According to the traditional definition, we may be in a recession when Q2 GDP statistics are released next week.

Regardless of criteria, I predict the economy will have a terrible year.

Weekly layoffs are announced. Inflation persists. Will prices return to 2020 levels if inflation cools? Perhaps. Still expensive energy. Ukraine's war has global repercussions.

I predict BOA's next quarter earnings won't be as bullish about the consumer's strength.