More on Entrepreneurship/Creators
Evgenii Nelepko
3 years ago
My 3 biggest errors as a co-founder and CEO
Reflections on the closed company Hola! Dating app
I'll discuss my fuckups as an entrepreneur and CEO. All of them refer to the dating app Hola!, which I co-founded and starred in.
Spring 2021 was when we started. Two techies and two non-techies created a dating app. Pokemon Go and Tinder were combined.
Online dating is a business, and it takes two weeks from a like to a date. We questioned online dating app users if they met anyone offline last year.
75% replied yes, 50% sometimes, 25% usually.
Offline dating is popular, yet people have concerns.
Men are reluctant to make mistakes in front of others.
Women are curious about the background of everyone who approaches them.
We designed unique mechanics that let people date after a match. No endless chitchat. Women would be safe while men felt like cowboys.
I wish to emphasize three faults that lead to founders' estrangement.
This detachment ultimately led to us shutting down the company.
The wrong technology stack
Situation
Instead of generating a faster MVP and designing an app in a universal stack for iOS and Android, I argued we should pilot the app separately for iOS and Android. Technical founders' expertise made this possible.
Self-reflection
Mistaken strategy. We lost time and resources developing two apps at once. We chose iOS since it's more profitable. Apple took us out after the release, citing Guideline 4.3 Spam. After 4 months, we had nothing. We had a long way to go to get the app on Android and the Store.
I suggested creating a uniform platform for the company's growth. This makes parallel product development easier. The strategist's lack of experience and knowledge made it a piece of crap.
What would I have changed if I could?
We should have designed an Android universal stack. I expected Apple to have issues with a dating app.
Our approach should have been to launch something and subsequently improve it, but prejudice won.
The lesson
Discuss the IT stack with your CTO. It saves time and money. Choose the easiest MVP method.
2. A tardy search for investments
Situation
Though the universe and other founders encouraged me to locate investors first, I started pitching when we almost had an app.
When angels arrived, it was time to close. The app was banned, war broke out, I left the country, and the other co-founders stayed. We had no savings.
Self-reflection
I loved interviewing users. I'm proud of having done 1,000 interviews. I wanted to understand people's pain points and improve the product.
Interview results no longer affected the product. I was terrified to start pitching. I filled out accelerator applications and redid my presentation. You must go through that so you won't be terrified later.
What would I have changed if I could?
Get an external or internal mentor to help me with my first pitch as soon as possible. I'd be supported if criticized. He'd cheer with me if there was enthusiasm.
In 99% of cases, I'm comfortable jumping into the unknown, but there are exceptions. The mentor's encouragement would have prompted me to act sooner.
The lesson
Begin fundraising immediately. Months may pass. Show investors your pre-MVP project. Draw inferences from feedback.
3. Role ambiguity
Situation
My technical co-founders were also part-time lead developers, which produced communication issues. As co-founders, we communicated well and recognized the problems. Stakes, vesting, target markets, and approach were agreed upon.
We were behind schedule. Technical debt and strategic gap grew.
Bi-daily and weekly reviews didn't help. Each time, there were explanations. Inside, I was freaking out.
Self-reflection
I am a fairly easy person to talk to. I always try to stick to agreements; otherwise, my head gets stuffed with unnecessary information, interpretations, and emotions.
Sit down -> talk -> decide -> do -> evaluate the results. Repeat it.
If I don't get detailed comments, I start ruining everyone's mood. If there's a systematic violation of agreements without a good justification, I won't join the project or I'll end the collaboration.
What would I have done otherwise?
This is where it’s scariest to draw conclusions. Probably the most logical thing would have been not to start the project as we started it. But that was already a completely different project. So I would not have done anything differently and would have failed again.
But I drew conclusions for the future.
The lesson
First-time founders should find an adviser or team coach for a strategic session. It helps split the roles and responsibilities.

SAHIL SAPRU
3 years ago
Growth tactics that grew businesses from 1 to 100
Everyone wants a scalable startup.
Innovation helps launch a startup. The secret to a scalable business is growth trials (from 1 to 100).
Growth marketing combines marketing and product development for long-term growth.
Today, I'll explain growth hacking strategies popular startups used to scale.
1/ A Facebook user's social value is proportional to their friends.
Facebook built its user base using content marketing and paid ads. Mark and his investors feared in 2007 when Facebook's growth stalled at 90 million users.
Chamath Palihapitiya was brought in by Mark.
The team tested SEO keywords and MAU chasing. The growth team introduced “people you may know”
This feature reunited long-lost friends and family. Casual users became power users as the retention curve flattened.
Growth Hack Insights: With social network effect the value of your product or platform increases exponentially if you have users you know or can relate with.
2/ Airbnb - Focus on your value propositions
Airbnb nearly failed in 2009. The company's weekly revenue was $200 and they had less than 2 months of runway.
Enter Paul Graham. The team noticed a pattern in 40 listings. Their website's property photos sucked.
Why?
Because these photos were taken with regular smartphones. Users didn't like the first impression.
Graham suggested traveling to New York to rent a camera, meet with property owners, and replace amateur photos with high-resolution ones.
A week later, the team's weekly revenue doubled to $400, indicating they were on track.
Growth Hack Insights: When selling an “online experience” ensure that your value proposition is aesthetic enough for users to enjoy being associated with them.
3/ Zomato - A company's smartphone push ensured growth.
Zomato delivers food. User retention was a challenge for the founders. Indian food customers are notorious for switching brands at the drop of a hat.
Zomato wanted users to order food online and repeat orders throughout the week.
Zomato created an attractive website with “near me” keywords for SEO indexing.
Zomato gambled to increase repeat orders. They only allowed mobile app food orders.
Zomato thought mobile apps were stickier. Product innovations in search/discovery/ordering or marketing campaigns like discounts/in-app notifications/nudges can improve user experience.
Zomato went public in 2021 after users kept ordering food online.
Growth Hack Insights: To improve user retention try to build platforms that build user stickiness. Your product and marketing team will do the rest for them.
4/ Hotmail - Signaling helps build premium users.
Ever sent or received an email or tweet with a sign — sent from iPhone?
Hotmail did it first! One investor suggested Hotmail add a signature to every email.
Overnight, thousands joined the company. Six months later, the company had 1 million users.
When serving an existing customer, improve their social standing. Signaling keeps the top 1%.
5/ Dropbox - Respect loyal customers
Dropbox is a company that puts people over profits. The company prioritized existing users.
Dropbox rewarded loyal users by offering 250 MB of free storage to anyone who referred a friend. The referral hack helped Dropbox get millions of downloads in its first few months.
Growth Hack Insights: Think of ways to improve the social positioning of your end-user when you are serving an existing customer. Signaling goes a long way in attracting the top 1% to stay.
These experiments weren’t hacks. Hundreds of failed experiments and user research drove these experiments. Scaling up experiments is difficult.
Contact me if you want to grow your startup's user base.

Navdeep Yadav
2 years ago
31 startup company models (with examples)
Many people find the internet's various business models bewildering.
This article summarizes 31 startup e-books.
1. Using the freemium business model (free plus premium),
The freemium business model offers basic software, games, or services for free and charges for enhancements.
Examples include Slack, iCloud, and Google Drive
Provide a rudimentary, free version of your product or service to users.
Google Drive and Dropbox offer 15GB and 2GB of free space but charge for more.
Freemium business model details (Click here)
2. The Business Model of Subscription
Subscription business models sell a product or service for recurring monthly or yearly revenue.
Examples: Tinder, Netflix, Shopify, etc
It's the next step to Freemium if a customer wants to pay monthly for premium features.
Subscription Business Model (Click here)
3. A market-based business strategy
It's an e-commerce site or app where third-party sellers sell products or services.
Examples are Amazon and Fiverr.
On Amazon's marketplace, a third-party vendor sells a product.
Freelancers on Fiverr offer specialized skills like graphic design.
Marketplace's business concept is explained.
4. Business plans using aggregates
In the aggregator business model, the service is branded.
Uber, Airbnb, and other examples
Marketplace and Aggregator business models differ.
Amazon and Fiverr link merchants and customers and take a 10-20% revenue split.
Uber and Airbnb-style aggregator Join these businesses and provide their products.
5. The pay-as-you-go concept of business
This is a consumption-based pricing system. Cloud companies use it.
Example: Amazon Web Service and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) (AWS)
AWS, an Amazon subsidiary, offers over 200 pay-as-you-go cloud services.
“In short, the more you use the more you pay”
When it's difficult to divide clients into pricing levels, pay-as-you is employed.
6. The business model known as fee-for-service (FFS)
FFS charges fixed and variable fees for each successful payment.
For instance, PayU, Paypal, and Stripe
Stripe charges 2.9% + 30 per payment.
These firms offer a payment gateway to take consumer payments and deposit them to a business account.
Fintech business model
7. EdTech business strategy
In edtech, you generate money by selling material or teaching as a service.
edtech business models
Freemium When course content is free but certification isn't, e.g. Coursera
FREE TRIAL SkillShare offers free trials followed by monthly or annual subscriptions.
Self-serving marketplace approach where you pick what to learn.
Ad-revenue model The company makes money by showing adverts to its huge user base.
Lock-in business strategy
Lock in prevents customers from switching to a competitor's brand or offering.
It uses switching costs or effort to transmit (soft lock-in), improved brand experience, or incentives.
Apple, SAP, and other examples
Apple offers an iPhone and then locks you in with extra hardware (Watch, Airpod) and platform services (Apple Store, Apple Music, cloud, etc.).
9. Business Model for API Licensing
APIs let third-party apps communicate with your service.
Uber and Airbnb use Google Maps APIs for app navigation.
Examples are Google Map APIs (Map), Sendgrid (Email), and Twilio (SMS).
Business models for APIs
Free: The simplest API-driven business model that enables unrestricted API access for app developers. Google Translate and Facebook are two examples.
Developer Pays: Under this arrangement, service providers such as AWS, Twilio, Github, Stripe, and others must be paid by application developers.
The developer receives payment: These are the compensated content producers or developers who distribute the APIs utilizing their work. For example, Amazon affiliate programs
10. Open-source enterprise
Open-source software can be inspected, modified, and improved by anybody.
For instance, use Firefox, Java, or Android.
Google paid Mozilla $435,702 million to be their primary search engine in 2018.
Open-source software profits in six ways.
Paid assistance The Project Manager can charge for customization because he is quite knowledgeable about the codebase.
A full database solution is available as a Software as a Service (MongoDB Atlas), but there is a fee for the monitoring tool.
Open-core design R studio is a better GUI substitute for open-source applications.
sponsors of GitHub Sponsorships benefit the developers in full.
demands for paid features Earn Money By Developing Open Source Add-Ons for Current Products
Open-source business model
11. The business model for data
If the software or algorithm collects client data to improve or monetize the system.
Open AI GPT3 gets smarter with use.
Foursquare allows users to exchange check-in locations.
Later, they compiled large datasets to enable retailers like Starbucks launch new outlets.
12. Business Model Using Blockchain
Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology that allows firms to deploy smart contracts without a central authority.
Examples include Alchemy, Solana, and Ethereum.
Business models using blockchain
Economy of tokens or utility When a business uses a token business model, it issues some kind of token as one of the ways to compensate token holders or miners. For instance, Solana and Ethereum
Bitcoin Cash P2P Business Model Peer-to-peer (P2P) blockchain technology permits direct communication between end users. as in IPFS
Enterprise Blockchain as a Service (Baas) BaaS focuses on offering ecosystem services similar to those offered by Amazon (AWS) and Microsoft (Azure) in the web 3 sector. Example: Ethereum Blockchain as a Service with Bitcoin (EBaaS).
Blockchain-Based Aggregators With AWS for blockchain, you can use that service by making an API call to your preferred blockchain. As an illustration, Alchemy offers nodes for many blockchains.
13. The free-enterprise model
In the freeterprise business model, free professional accounts are led into the funnel by the free product and later become B2B/enterprise accounts.
For instance, Slack and Zoom
Freeterprise companies flourish through collaboration.
Start with a free professional account to build an enterprise.
14. Business plan for razor blades
It's employed in hardware where one piece is sold at a loss and profits are made through refills or add-ons.
Gillet razor & blades, coffee machine & beans, HP printer & cartridge, etc.
Sony sells the Playstation console at a loss but makes up for it by selling games and charging for online services.
Advantages of the Razor-Razorblade Method
lowers the risk a customer will try a product. enables buyers to test the goods and services without having to pay a high initial investment.
The product's ongoing revenue stream has the potential to generate sales that much outweigh the original investments.
Razor blade business model
15. The business model of direct-to-consumer (D2C)
In D2C, the company sells directly to the end consumer through its website using a third-party logistic partner.
Examples include GymShark and Kylie Cosmetics.
D2C brands can only expand via websites, marketplaces (Amazon, eBay), etc.
D2C benefits
Lower reliance on middlemen = greater profitability
You now have access to more precise demographic and geographic customer data.
Additional space for product testing
Increased customisation throughout your entire product line-Inventory Less
16. Business model: White Label vs. Private Label
Private label/White label products are made by a contract or third-party manufacturer.
Most amazon electronics are made in china and white-labeled.
Amazon supplements and electronics.
Contract manufacturers handle everything after brands select product quantities on design labels.
17. The franchise model
The franchisee uses the franchisor's trademark, branding, and business strategy (company).
For instance, KFC, Domino's, etc.
Subway, Domino, Burger King, etc. use this business strategy.
Many people pick a franchise because opening a restaurant is risky.
18. Ad-based business model
Social media and search engine giants exploit search and interest data to deliver adverts.
Google, Meta, TikTok, and Snapchat are some examples.
Users don't pay for the service or product given, e.g. Google users don't pay for searches.
In exchange, they collected data and hyper-personalized adverts to maximize revenue.
19. Business plan for octopuses
Each business unit functions separately but is connected to the main body.
Instance: Oyo
OYO is Asia's Airbnb, operating hotels, co-working, co-living, and vacation houses.
20, Transactional business model, number
Sales to customers produce revenue.
E-commerce sites and online purchases employ SSL.
Goli is an ex-GymShark.
21. The peer-to-peer (P2P) business model
In P2P, two people buy and sell goods and services without a third party or platform.
Consider OLX.
22. P2P lending as a manner of operation
In P2P lending, one private individual (P2P Lender) lends/invests or borrows money from another (P2P Borrower).
Instance: Kabbage
Social lending lets people lend and borrow money directly from each other without an intermediary financial institution.
23. A business model for brokers
Brokerages charge a commission or fee for their services.
Examples include eBay, Coinbase, and Robinhood.
Brokerage businesses are common in Real estate, finance, and online and operate on this model.
Buy/sell similar models Examples include financial brokers, insurance brokers, and others who match purchase and sell transactions and charge a commission.
These brokers charge an advertiser a fee based on the date, place, size, or type of an advertisement. This is known as the classified-advertiser model. For instance, Craiglist
24. Drop shipping as an industry
Dropshipping allows stores to sell things without holding physical inventories.
When a customer orders, use a third-party supplier and logistic partners.
Retailer product portfolio and customer experience Fulfiller The consumer places the order.
Dropshipping advantages
Less money is needed (Low overhead-No Inventory or warehousing)
Simple to start (costs under $100)
flexible work environment
New product testing is simpler
25. Business Model for Space as a Service
It's centered on a shared economy that lets millennials live or work in communal areas without ownership or lease.
Consider WeWork and Airbnb.
WeWork helps businesses with real estate, legal compliance, maintenance, and repair.
26. The business model for third-party logistics (3PL)
In 3PL, a business outsources product delivery, warehousing, and fulfillment to an external logistics company.
Examples include Ship Bob, Amazon Fulfillment, and more.
3PL partners warehouse, fulfill, and return inbound and outbound items for a charge.
Inbound logistics involves bringing products from suppliers to your warehouse.
Outbound logistics refers to a company's production line, warehouse, and customer.
27. The last-mile delivery paradigm as a commercial strategy
Last-mile delivery is the collection of supply chain actions that reach the end client.
Examples include Rappi, Gojek, and Postmates.
Last-mile is tied to on-demand and has a nighttime peak.
28. The use of affiliate marketing
Affiliate marketing involves promoting other companies' products and charging commissions.
Examples include Hubspot, Amazon, and Skillshare.
Your favorite youtube channel probably uses these short amazon links to get 5% of sales.
Affiliate marketing's benefits
In exchange for a success fee or commission, it enables numerous independent marketers to promote on its behalf.
Ensure system transparency by giving the influencers a specific tracking link and an online dashboard to view their profits.
Learn about the newest bargains and have access to promotional materials.
29. The business model for virtual goods
This is an in-app purchase for an intangible product.
Examples include PubG, Roblox, Candy Crush, etc.
Consumables are like gaming cash that runs out. Non-consumable products provide a permanent advantage without repeated purchases.
30. Business Models for Cloud Kitchens
Ghost, Dark, Black Box, etc.
Delivery-only restaurant.
These restaurants don't provide dine-in, only delivery.
For instance, NextBite and Faasos
31. Crowdsourcing as a Business Model
Crowdsourcing = Using the crowd as a platform's source.
In crowdsourcing, you get support from people around the world without hiring them.
Crowdsourcing sites
Open-Source Software gives access to the software's source code so that developers can edit or enhance it. Examples include Firefox browsers and Linux operating systems.
Crowdfunding The oculus headgear would be an example of crowdfunding in essence, with no expectations.
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JEFF JOHN ROBERTS
3 years ago
What just happened in cryptocurrency? A plain-English Q&A about Binance's FTX takedown.
Crypto people have witnessed things. They've seen big hacks, mind-boggling swindles, and amazing successes. They've never seen a day like Tuesday, when the world's largest crypto exchange murdered its closest competition.
Here's a primer on Binance and FTX's lunacy and why it matters if you're new to crypto.
What happened?
CZ, a shrewd Chinese-Canadian billionaire, runs Binance. FTX, a newcomer, has challenged Binance in recent years. SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried)—a young American with wild hair—founded FTX (initials are a thing in crypto).
Last weekend, CZ complained about SBF's lobbying and then exploited Binance's market power to attack his competition.
How did CZ do that?
CZ invested in SBF's new cryptocurrency exchange when they were friends. CZ sold his investment in FTX for FTT when he no longer wanted it. FTX clients utilize those tokens to get trade discounts, although they are less liquid than Bitcoin.
SBF made a mistake by providing CZ just too many FTT tokens, giving him control over FTX. It's like Pepsi handing Coca-Cola a lot of stock it could sell at any time. CZ got upset with SBF and flooded the market with FTT tokens.
SBF owns a trading fund with many FTT tokens, therefore this was catastrophic. SBF sought to defend FTT's worth by selling other assets to buy up the FTT tokens flooding the market, but it didn't succeed, and as FTT's value plummeted, his liabilities exceeded his assets. By Tuesday, his companies were insolvent, so he sold them to his competition.
Crazy. How could CZ do that?
CZ likely did this to crush a rising competition. It was also personal. In recent months, regulators have been tough toward the crypto business, and Binance and FTX have been trying to stay on their good side. CZ believed SBF was poisoning U.S. authorities by saying CZ was linked to China, so CZ took retribution.
“We supported previously, but we won't pretend to make love after divorce. We're neutral. But we won't assist people that push against other industry players behind their backs," CZ stated in a tragic tweet on Sunday. He crushed his rival's company two days later.
So does Binance now own FTX?
No. Not yet. CZ has only stated that Binance signed a "letter of intent" to acquire FTX. CZ and SBF say Binance will protect FTX consumers' funds.
Who’s to blame?
You could blame CZ for using his control over FTX to destroy it. SBF is also being criticized for not disclosing the full overlap between FTX and his trading company, which controlled plenty of FTT. If he had been upfront, someone might have warned FTX about this vulnerability earlier, preventing this mess.
Others have alleged that SBF utilized customer monies to patch flaws in his enterprises' balance accounts. That happened to multiple crypto startups that collapsed this spring, which is unfortunate. These are allegations, not proof.
Why does this matter? Isn't this common in crypto?
Crypto is notorious for shady executives and pranks. FTX is the second-largest crypto business, and SBF was largely considered as the industry's golden boy who would help it get on authorities' good side. Thus far.
Does this affect cryptocurrency prices?
Short-term, it's bad. Prices fell on suspicions that FTX was in peril, then rallied when Binance rescued it, only to fall again later on Tuesday.
These occurrences have hurt FTT and SBF's Solana token. It appears like a huge token selloff is affecting the rest of the market. Bitcoin fell 10% and Ethereum 15%, which is bad but not catastrophic for the two largest coins by market cap.

Bob Service
3 years ago
Did volcanic 'glasses' play a role in igniting early life?
Quenched lava may have aided in the formation of long RNA strands required by primitive life.
It took a long time for life to emerge. Microbes were present 3.7 billion years ago, just a few hundred million years after the 4.5-billion-year-old Earth had cooled enough to sustain biochemistry, according to fossils, and many scientists believe RNA was the genetic material for these first species. RNA, while not as complicated as DNA, would be difficult to forge into the lengthy strands required to transmit genetic information, raising the question of how it may have originated spontaneously.
Researchers may now have a solution. They demonstrate how basaltic glasses assist individual RNA letters, also known as nucleoside triphosphates, join into strands up to 200 letters long in lab studies. The glasses are formed when lava is quenched in air or water, or when melted rock generated by asteroid strikes cools rapidly, and they would have been plentiful in the early Earth's fire and brimstone.
The outcome has caused a schism among top origin-of-life scholars. "This appears to be a great story that finally explains how nucleoside triphosphates react with each other to create RNA strands," says Thomas Carell, a scientist at Munich's Ludwig Maximilians University. However, Harvard University's Jack Szostak, an RNA expert, says he won't believe the results until the study team thoroughly describes the RNA strands.
Researchers interested in the origins of life like the idea of a primordial "RNA universe" since the molecule can perform two different functions that are essential for life. It's made up of four chemical letters, just like DNA, and can carry genetic information. RNA, like proteins, can catalyze chemical reactions that are necessary for life.
However, RNA can cause headaches. No one has yet discovered a set of plausible primordial conditions that would cause hundreds of RNA letters—each of which is a complicated molecule—to join together into strands long enough to support the intricate chemistry required to kick-start evolution.
Basaltic glasses may have played a role, according to Stephen Mojzsis, a geologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder. They're high in metals like magnesium and iron, which help to trigger a variety of chemical reactions. "Basaltic glass was omnipresent on Earth at the time," he adds.
He provided the Foundation for Applied Molecular Evolution samples of five different basalt glasses. Each sample was ground into a fine powder, sanitized, and combined with a solution of nucleoside triphosphates by molecular biologist Elisa Biondi and her colleagues. The RNA letters were unable to link up without the presence of glass powder. However, when the molecules were mixed with the glass particles, they formed long strands of hundreds of letters, according to the researchers, who published their findings in Astrobiology this week. There was no need for heat or light. Biondi explains, "All we had to do was wait." After only a day, little RNA strands produced, yet the strands continued to grow for months. Jan Paek, a molecular biologist at Firebird Biomolecular Sciences, says, "The beauty of this approach is its simplicity." "Mix the components together, wait a few days, and look for RNA."
Nonetheless, the findings pose a slew of problems. One of the questions is how nucleoside triphosphates came to be in the first place. Recent study by Biondi's colleague Steven Benner suggests that the same basaltic glasses may have aided in the creation and stabilization of individual RNA letters.
The form of the lengthy RNA strands, according to Szostak, is a significant challenge. Enzymes in modern cells ensure that most RNAs form long linear chains. RNA letters, on the other hand, can bind in complicated branching sequences. Szostak wants the researchers to reveal what kind of RNA was produced by the basaltic glasses. "It irritates me that the authors made an intriguing initial finding but then chose to follow the hype rather than the research," Szostak says.
Biondi acknowledges that her team's experiment almost probably results in some RNA branching. She does acknowledge, however, that some branched RNAs are seen in species today, and that analogous structures may have existed before the origin of life. Other studies carried out by the study also confirmed the presence of lengthy strands with connections, indicating that they are most likely linear. "It's a healthy argument," says Dieter Braun, a Ludwig Maximilian University origin-of-life chemist. "It will set off the next series of tests."

Ray Dalio
3 years ago
The latest “bubble indicator” readings.
As you know, I like to turn my intuition into decision rules (principles) that can be back-tested and automated to create a portfolio of alpha bets. I use one for bubbles. Having seen many bubbles in my 50+ years of investing, I described what makes a bubble and how to identify them in markets—not just stocks.
A bubble market has a high degree of the following:
- High prices compared to traditional values (e.g., by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates).
- Conditons incompatible with long-term growth (e.g., extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle).
- Many new and inexperienced buyers were drawn in by the perceived hot market.
- Broad bullish sentiment.
- Debt financing a large portion of purchases.
- Lots of forward and speculative purchases to profit from price rises (e.g., inventories that are more than needed, contracted forward purchases, etc.).
I use these criteria to assess all markets for bubbles. I have periodically shown you these for stocks and the stock market.
What Was Shown in January Versus Now
I will first describe the picture in words, then show it in charts, and compare it to the last update in January.
As of January, the bubble indicator showed that a) the US equity market was in a moderate bubble, but not an extreme one (ie., 70 percent of way toward the highest bubble, which occurred in the late 1990s and late 1920s), and b) the emerging tech companies (ie. As well, the unprecedented flood of liquidity post-COVID financed other bubbly behavior (e.g. SPACs, IPO boom, big pickup in options activity), making things bubbly. I showed which stocks were in bubbles and created an index of those stocks, which I call “bubble stocks.”
Those bubble stocks have popped. They fell by a third last year, while the S&P 500 remained flat. In light of these and other market developments, it is not necessarily true that now is a good time to buy emerging tech stocks.
The fact that they aren't at a bubble extreme doesn't mean they are safe or that it's a good time to get long. Our metrics still show that US stocks are overvalued. Once popped, bubbles tend to overcorrect to the downside rather than settle at “normal” prices.
The following charts paint the picture. The first shows the US equity market bubble gauge/indicator going back to 1900, currently at the 40% percentile. The charts also zoom in on the gauge in recent years, as well as the late 1920s and late 1990s bubbles (during both of these cases the gauge reached 100 percent ).
The chart below depicts the average bubble gauge for the most bubbly companies in 2020. Those readings are down significantly.
The charts below compare the performance of a basket of emerging tech bubble stocks to the S&P 500. Prices have fallen noticeably, giving up most of their post-COVID gains.
The following charts show the price action of the bubble slice today and in the 1920s and 1990s. These charts show the same market dynamics and two key indicators. These are just two examples of how a lot of debt financing stock ownership coupled with a tightening typically leads to a bubble popping.
Everything driving the bubbles in this market segment is classic—the same drivers that drove the 1920s bubble and the 1990s bubble. For instance, in the last couple months, it was how tightening can act to prick the bubble. Review this case study of the 1920s stock bubble (starting on page 49) from my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises to grasp these dynamics.
The following charts show the components of the US stock market bubble gauge. Since this is a proprietary indicator, I will only show you some of the sub-aggregate readings and some indicators.
Each of these six influences is measured using a number of stats. This is how I approach the stock market. These gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole. The table below shows the current readings of these US equity market indicators. It compares current conditions for US equities to historical conditions. These readings suggest that we’re out of a bubble.
1. How High Are Prices Relatively?
This price gauge for US equities is currently around the 50th percentile.
2. Is price reduction unsustainable?
This measure calculates the earnings growth rate required to outperform bonds. This is calculated by adding up the readings of individual securities. This indicator is currently near the 60th percentile for the overall market, higher than some of our other readings. Profit growth discounted in stocks remains high.
Even more so in the US software sector. Analysts' earnings growth expectations for this sector have slowed, but remain high historically. P/Es have reversed COVID gains but remain high historical.
3. How many new buyers (i.e., non-existing buyers) entered the market?
Expansion of new entrants is often indicative of a bubble. According to historical accounts, this was true in the 1990s equity bubble and the 1929 bubble (though our data for this and other gauges doesn't go back that far). A flood of new retail investors into popular stocks, which by other measures appeared to be in a bubble, pushed this gauge above the 90% mark in 2020. The pace of retail activity in the markets has recently slowed to pre-COVID levels.
4. How Broadly Bullish Is Sentiment?
The more people who have invested, the less resources they have to keep investing, and the more likely they are to sell. Market sentiment is now significantly negative.
5. Are Purchases Being Financed by High Leverage?
Leveraged purchases weaken the buying foundation and expose it to forced selling in a downturn. The leverage gauge, which considers option positions as a form of leverage, is now around the 50% mark.
6. To What Extent Have Buyers Made Exceptionally Extended Forward Purchases?
Looking at future purchases can help assess whether expectations have become overly optimistic. This indicator is particularly useful in commodity and real estate markets, where forward purchases are most obvious. In the equity markets, I look at indicators like capital expenditure, or how much businesses (and governments) invest in infrastructure, factories, etc. It reflects whether businesses are projecting future demand growth. Like other gauges, this one is at the 40th percentile.
What one does with it is a tactical choice. While the reversal has been significant, future earnings discounting remains high historically. In either case, bubbles tend to overcorrect (sell off more than the fundamentals suggest) rather than simply deflate. But I wanted to share these updated readings with you in light of recent market activity.
