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Will Lockett

Will Lockett

3 years ago

Tesla recently disclosed its greatest secret.

More on Leadership

Sammy Abdullah

Sammy Abdullah

3 years ago

Payouts to founders at IPO

How much do startup founders make after an IPO? We looked at 2018's major tech IPOs. Paydays aren't what founders took home at the IPO (shares are normally locked up for 6 months), but what they were worth at the IPO price on the day the firm went public. It's not cash, but it's nice. Here's the data.

Several points are noteworthy.

Huge payoffs. Median and average pay were $399m and $918m. Average and median homeownership were 9% and 12%.

Coinbase, Uber, UI Path. Uber, Zoom, Spotify, UI Path, and Coinbase founders raised billions. Zoom's founder owned 19% and Spotify's 28% and 13%. Brian Armstrong controlled 20% of Coinbase at IPO and was worth $15bn. Preserving as much equity as possible by staying cash-efficient or raising at high valuations also helps.

The smallest was Ping. Ping's compensation was the smallest. Andre Duand owned 2% but was worth $20m at IPO. That's less than some billion-dollar paydays, but still good.

IPOs can be lucrative, as you can see. Preserving equity could be the difference between a $20mm and $15bln payday (Coinbase).

Al Anany

Al Anany

2 years ago

Because of this covert investment that Bezos made, Amazon became what it is today.

He kept it under wraps for years until he legally couldn’t.

Midjourney

His shirt is incomplete. I can’t stop thinking about this…

Actually, ignore the article. Look at it. JUST LOOK at it… It’s quite disturbing, isn’t it?

Ughh…

Me: “Hey, what up?” Friend: “All good, watching lord of the rings on amazon prime video.” Me: “Oh, do you know how Amazon grew and became famous?” Friend: “Geek alert…Can I just watch in peace?” Me: “But… Bezos?” Friend: “Let it go, just let it go…”

I can question you, the reader, and start answering instantly without his consent. This far.

Reader, how did Amazon succeed? You'll say, Of course, it was an internet bookstore, then it sold everything.

Mistaken. They moved from zero to one because of this. How did they get from one to thousand? AWS-some. Understand? It's geeky and lame. If not, I'll explain my geekiness.

Over an extended period of time, Amazon was not profitable.

Business basics. You want customers if you own a bakery, right?

Well, 100 clients per day order $5 cheesecakes (because cheesecakes are awesome.)

$5 x 100 consumers x 30 days Equals $15,000 monthly revenue. You proudly work here.

Now you have to pay the barista (unless ChatGPT is doing it haha? Nope..)

  • The barista is requesting $5000 a month.

  • Each cheesecake costs the cheesecake maker $2.5 ($2.5 × 100 x 30 = $7500).

  • The monthly cost of running your bakery, including power, is about $5000.

Assume no extra charges. Your operating costs are $17,500.

Just $15,000? You have income but no profit. You might make money selling coffee with your cheesecake next month.

Is losing money bad? You're broke. Losing money. It's bad for financial statements.

It's almost a business ultimatum. Most startups fail. Amazon took nine years.

I'm reading Amazon Unbound: Jeff Bezos and the Creation of a Global Empire to comprehend how a company has a $1 trillion market cap.

Many things made Amazon big. The book claims that Bezos and Amazon kept a specific product secret for a long period.

Clouds above the bald head.

In 2006, Bezos started a cloud computing initiative. They believed many firms like Snapchat would pay for reliable servers.

In 2006, cloud computing was not what it is today. I'll simplify. 2006 had no iPhone.

Bezos invested in Amazon Web Services (AWS) without disclosing its revenue. That's permitted till a certain degree.

Google and Microsoft would realize Amazon is heavily investing in this market and worry.

Bezos anticipated high demand for this product. Microsoft built its cloud in 2010, and Google in 2008.

If you managed Google or Microsoft, you wouldn't know how much Amazon makes from their cloud computing service. It's enough. Yet, Amazon is an internet store, so they'll focus on that.

All but Bezos were wrong.

Time to come clean now.

They revealed AWS revenue in 2015. Two things were apparent:

  1. Bezos made the proper decision to bet on the cloud and keep it a secret.

  2. In this race, Amazon is in the lead.

Synergy Research Group

They continued. Let me list some AWS users today.

  • Netflix

  • Airbnb

  • Twitch

More. Amazon was unprofitable for nine years, remember? This article's main graph.

Visual Capitalist

AWS accounted for 74% of Amazon's profit in 2021. This 74% might not exist if they hadn't invested in AWS.

Bring this with you home.

Amazon predated AWS. Yet, it helped the giant reach $1 trillion. Bezos' secrecy? Perhaps, until a time machine is invented (they might host the time machine software on AWS, though.)

Without AWS, Amazon would have been profitable but unimpressive. They may have invested in anything else that would have returned more (like crypto? No? Ok.)

Bezos has business flaws. His success. His failures include:

  • introducing the Fire Phone and suffering a $170 million loss.

  • Amazon's failure in China In 2011, Amazon had a about 15% market share in China. 2019 saw a decrease of about 1%.

  • not offering a higher price to persuade the creator of Netflix to sell the company to him. He offered a rather reasonable $15 million in his proposal. But what if he had offered $30 million instead (Amazon had over $100 million in revenue at the time)? He might have owned Netflix, which has a $156 billion market valuation (and saved billions rather than invest in Amazon Prime Video).

Some he could control. Some were uncontrollable. Nonetheless, every action he made in the foregoing circumstances led him to invest in AWS.

Caspar Mahoney

Caspar Mahoney

2 years ago

Changing Your Mindset From a Project to a Product

Product game mindsets? How do these vary from Project mindset?

1950s spawned the Iron Triangle. Project people everywhere know and live by it. In stakeholder meetings, it is used to stretch the timeframe, request additional money, or reduce scope.

Quality was added to this triangle as things matured.

Credit: Peter Morville — https://www.flickr.com/photos/morville/40648134582

Quality was intended to be transformative, but none of these principles addressed why we conduct projects.

Value and benefits are key.

Product value is quantified by ROI, revenue, profit, savings, or other metrics. For me, every project or product delivery is about value.

Most project managers, especially those schooled 5-10 years or more ago (thousands working in huge corporations worldwide), understand the world in terms of the iron triangle. What does that imply? They worry about:

a) enough time to get the thing done.

b) have enough resources (budget) to get the thing done.

c) have enough scope to fit within (a) and (b) >> note, they never have too little scope, not that I have ever seen! although, theoretically, this could happen.

Boom—iron triangle.

To make the triangle function, project managers will utilize formal governance (Steering) to move those things. Increase money, scope, or both if time is short. Lacking funds? Increase time, scope, or both.

In current product development, shifting each item considerably may not yield value/benefit.

Even terrible. This approach will fail because it deprioritizes Value/Benefit by focusing the major stakeholders (Steering participants) and delivery team(s) on Time, Scope, and Budget restrictions.

Pre-agile, this problem was terrible. IT projects failed wildly. History is here.

Value, or benefit, is central to the product method. Product managers spend most of their time planning value-delivery paths.

Product people consider risk, schedules, scope, and budget, but value comes first. Let me illustrate.

Imagine managing internal products in an enterprise. Your core customer team needs a rapid text record of a chat to fix a problem. The consumer wants a feature/features added to a product you're producing because they think it's the greatest spot.

Project-minded, I may say;

Ok, I have budget as this is an existing project, due to run for a year. This is a new requirement to add to the features we’re already building. I think I can keep the deadline, and include this scope, as it sounds related to the feature set we’re building to give the desired result”.

This attitude repeats Scope, Time, and Budget.

Since it meets those standards, a project manager will likely approve it. If they have a backlog, they may add it and start specking it out assuming it will be built.

Instead, think like a product;

What problem does this feature idea solve? Is that problem relevant to the product I am building? Can that problem be solved quicker/better via another route ? Is it the most valuable problem to solve now? Is the problem space aligned to our current or future strategy? or do I need to alter/update the strategy?

A product mindset allows you to focus on timing, resource/cost, feasibility, feature detail, and so on after answering the aforementioned questions.

The above oversimplifies because

Leadership in discovery

Photo by Meriç Dağlı on Unsplash

Project managers are facilitators of ideas. This is as far as they normally go in the ‘idea’ space.

Business Requirements collection in classic project delivery requires extensive upfront documentation.

Agile project delivery analyzes requirements iteratively.

However, the project manager is a facilitator/planner first and foremost, therefore topic knowledge is not expected.

I mean business domain, not technical domain (to confuse matters, it is true that in some instances, it can be both technical and business domains that are important for a single individual to master).

Product managers are domain experts. They will become one if they are training/new.

They lead discovery.

Product Manager-led discovery is much more than requirements gathering.

Requirements gathering involves a Business Analyst interviewing people and documenting their requests.

The project manager calculates what fits and what doesn't using their Iron Triangle (presumably in their head) and reports back to Steering.

If this requirements-gathering exercise failed to identify requirements, what would a project manager do? or bewildered by project requirements and scope?

They would tell Steering they need a Business SME or Business Lead assigning or more of their time.

Product discovery requires the Product Manager's subject knowledge and a new mindset.

How should a Product Manager handle confusing requirements?

Product Managers handle these challenges with their talents and tools. They use their own knowledge to fill in ambiguity, but they have the discipline to validate those assumptions.

To define the problem, they may perform qualitative or quantitative primary research.

They might discuss with UX and Engineering on a whiteboard and test assumptions or hypotheses.

Do Product Managers escalate confusing requirements to Steering/Senior leaders? They would fix that themselves.

Product managers raise unclear strategy and outcomes to senior stakeholders. Open talks, soft skills, and data help them do this. They rarely raise requirements since they have their own means of handling them without top stakeholder participation.

Discovery is greenfield, exploratory, research-based, and needs higher-order stakeholder management, user research, and UX expertise.

Product Managers also aid discovery. They lead discovery. They will not leave customer/user engagement to a Business Analyst. Administratively, a business analyst could aid. In fact, many product organizations discourage business analysts (rely on PM, UX, and engineer involvement with end-users instead).

The Product Manager must drive user interaction, research, ideation, and problem analysis, therefore a Product professional must be skilled and confident.

Creating vs. receiving and having an entrepreneurial attitude

Photo by Yannik Mika on Unsplash

Product novices and project managers focus on details rather than the big picture. Project managers prefer spreadsheets to strategy whiteboards and vision statements.

These folks ask their manager or senior stakeholders, "What should we do?"

They then elaborate (in Jira, in XLS, in Confluence or whatever).

They want that plan populated fast because it reduces uncertainty about what's going on and who's supposed to do what.

Skilled Product Managers don't only ask folks Should we?

They're suggesting this, or worse, Senior stakeholders, here are some options. After asking and researching, they determine what value this product adds, what problems it solves, and what behavior it changes.

Therefore, to move into Product, you need to broaden your view and have courage in your ability to discover ideas, find insightful pieces of information, and collate them to form a valuable plan of action. You are constantly defining RoI and building Business Cases, so much so that you no longer create documents called Business Cases, it is simply ingrained in your work through metrics, intelligence, and insights.

Product Management is not a free lunch.

Plateless.

Plates and food must be prepared.

In conclusion, Product Managers must make at least three mentality shifts:

  1. You put value first in all things. Time, money, and scope are not as important as knowing what is valuable.

  2. You have faith in the field and have the ability to direct the search. YYou facilitate, but you don’t just facilitate. You wouldn't want to limit your domain expertise in that manner.

  3. You develop concepts, strategies, and vision. You are not a waiter or an inbox where other people can post suggestions; you don't merely ask folks for opinion and record it. However, you excel at giving things that aren't clearly spoken or written down physical form.

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Tech With Dom

Tech With Dom

3 years ago

6 Awesome Desk Accessories You Must Have!

My Desk Setup

I'm gadget-obsessed. So I shared my top 6 desk gadgets.

These gadgets improve my workflow and are handy for working from home.

Without further ado...

Computer light bar Xiaomi Mi

Xiaomi Mi Monitor Light Bar

I've previously recommended the Xiaomi Mi Light Bar, and I still do. It's stylish and convenient.

The Mi bar is a monitor-mounted desk lamp. The lamp's hue and brightness can be changed with a stylish wireless remote.

Changeable hue and brightness make it ideal for late-night work.

Desk Mat 2.

Razer Goliathus Extended Chroma Mouse Mat

I wasn't planning to include a desk surface in this article, but I find it improves computer use.

The mouse feels smoother and is a better palm rest than wood or glass.

I'm currently using the overkill Razer Goliathus Extended Chroma RGB Gaming Surface, but I like RGB.

Using a desk surface or mat makes computer use more comfortable, and it's not expensive.

Third, the Logitech MX Master 3 Mouse

Logitech MX Master 3

The Logitech MX Master 3 or any from the MX Master series is my favorite mouse.

The side scroll wheel on these mice is a feature I've never seen on another mouse.

Side scroll wheels are great for spreadsheets and video editing. It would be hard for me to switch from my Logitech MX Master 3 to another mouse. Only gaming is off-limits.

Google Nest 4.

Google Nest Hub 2nd Generation

Without a smart assistant, my desk is useless. I'm currently using the second-generation Google Nest Hub, but I've also used the Amazon Echo Dot, Echo Spot, and Apple HomePod Mini.

As a Pixel 6 Pro user, the Nest Hub works best with my phone.

My Nest Hub plays news, music, and calendar events. It also lets me control lights and switches with my smartphone. It plays YouTube videos.

Google Pixel Stand, No. 5

Google Pixel Stand 2nd Generation

A wireless charger on my desk is convenient for charging my phone and other devices while I work. My desk has two wireless chargers. I have a Satechi aluminum fast charger and a second-generation Google Pixel Stand.

If I need to charge my phone and earbuds simultaneously, I use two wireless chargers. Satechi chargers are well-made and fast. Micro-USB is my only complaint.

The Pixel Stand converts compatible devices into a smart display for adjusting charging speeds and controlling other smart devices. My Pixel 6 Pro charges quickly. Here's my video review.

6. Anker Power Bank

Anker 65W Charger

Anker's 65W charger is my final recommendation. This online find was a must-have. This can charge my laptop and several non-wireless devices, perfect for any techie!

The charger has two USB-A ports and two USB-C ports, one with 45W and the other with 20W, so it can charge my iPad Pro and Pixel 6 Pro simultaneously.

Summary

These are some of my favorite office gadgets. My kit page has an updated list.

Links to the products mentioned in this article are in the appropriate sections. These are affiliate links.

You're up! Share the one desk gadget you can't live without and why.

Mark Schaefer

Mark Schaefer

2 years ago

20 Fun Uses for ChatGPT

Our RISE community is stoked on ChatGPT. ChatGPT has countless uses.

Early on. Companies are figuring out the legal and ethical implications of AI's content revolution. Using AI for everyday tasks is cool.

So I challenged RISE friends... Let's have fun and share non-obvious uses.

Onward!

1. Tweet

Jim MacLeod requested a design-themed Twitter thread from ChatGPT.

2. Novelize

Giuseppe Fratoni writes novels.

"This is amazing!" Impotent. I asked about writing, mystery novels, and jazz.

"Develop a mystery novel plot in which a disillusioned homicide detective hunts a serial killer who targets jazz musicians who play Autumn Leaves."

"I have:

Detective James Thompson is a seasoned veteran of the Homicide department, but lately he’s been feeling burnt out and disillusioned. His latest case, the murder of a young jazz pianist who was found brutally killed in his home, only serves to deepen his sense of despair … (much more provided)

3. Question-and-answer sessions

Bliss recommends:

You have a guest speaker and want to ask audience questions.

Pre-generate questions with ChatGPT. "And here's a question from our AI?"

The conference is about Western water scarcity. Water management expert. My AI question was...

Which desalination-related questions should I ask an expert?

ChatGPT said...

  • How is desalination currently being used around the world, and in what types of locations is it most effective?

  • What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of using desalination to provide fresh water?

  • What are some of the key challenges and limitations of desalination technology, and how are they being addressed?

4. Game-making

Richard's a board game expert. He suggests using ChatGPT to plan games. Note: Some people have started getting help solving crossword puzzle clues.

5. Matchmaking

Tanya Thompson thinks it helps dating. ChatGPT:

Here are some flirty first-message ideas for dating apps:

I noticed you from afar. I had to say hi and see if we clicked.

Your profile picture is gorgeous. I'm obsessed with your [Feature] and want to know you better.

I don't usually message first, but I had to. You're [Attractive Quality] and I can't wait to talk.”

Hello. Your profile intimidates me. I'm starstruck by your [Attractiveness]. (Many instances)

5. Solitude/anxiety

ChatGPT excels at one-on-one conversations.

PepperBrooks: "I'm sad and lonely."

ChatGPT: I’m sorry to hear that you’re feeling sad and lonely. It’s natural to feel down sometimes, but it’s important to remember that you’re not alone. There are many people who care about you and want to help you. It can be helpful to talk to someone about your feelings, whether it’s a close friend, family member, or mental health professional.

Sometimes, just expressing your thoughts and emotions to someone else can help to alleviate your sadness and loneliness. It’s also important to take care of yourself and do things that make you happy, such as spending time with loved ones, pursuing a hobby, or exercising. These things can help to improve your mood and make you feel more connected to others. Remember that you are strong and capable, and that you can get through this difficult time.

Daniel Nestle asked ChatGPT to generate journal prompts to help him deal with anxiety.

  1. Write down the things that are causing you anxiety at the moment.

  2. Describe a situation in which you felt anxious and how you coped with it.

  3. Reflect on how your thoughts and beliefs contribute to your anxiety.

  4. Write a letter to your anxiety, expressing your feelings and concerns

  5. Imagine yourself in a calm and peaceful place, and describe it in detail.

  6. (many more items followed)

6. Names

Continued Daniel:

Also, naming ideas.

Me: Name this drink. Japanese gin, unsweetened tonic, lime, Szechuan pepper, grapefruit.

ChatGPT: How about “Sakura Sunrise?” The name incorporates the Japanese gin and the citrus flavors of grapefruit and lime, and the word “sunrise” suggests a fresh and invigorating start to the day. Alternatively, you could go with something like “Peppered Grapefruit Gin Fizz” to emphasize the unique flavor combination of Szechuan pepper and grapefruit.

7. Translation on the go

Monks recommends: ChatGPT is a perfect mobile translation tool. Say you need help in Italy.

ME: Translate to Italian

Where is the nearest gas station?

ChatGPT: “La mia auto sta per esaurire il carburante, mi puoi dire dove si trova la stazione di servizio più vicina?”

8. Fitness

Monks added:

ME: In 3 months, I want to run 5km. Plan out how I can do this.

ChatGPT: Here's a 3-month plan to run 5km.

  • Start by walking for 15–20 minutes each day to build up your endurance and get your body used to regular exercise.

  • After a week of walking, begin incorporating short jogs into your routine. Start by jogging for 1–2 minutes at a time, with walking breaks in between. Gradually increase the length of your jogs and reduce the amount of time you spend walking.

  • Once you can jog for 10 minutes without stopping, start increasing the distance of your runs. Aim to run 1km without stopping and then gradually increase the distance over time.

  • In addition to your regular runs, incorporate strength training and stretching into your routine to improve your overall fitness and reduce the risk of injury.

  • (more details continued on)

9. Integrations and coding

10. Teacher lesson plans

Spencer Crandall saved time.

This morning, I wondered who has the hardest job. Teachers.

Many students, little time. ChatGPT could handle lesson planning. I tried it and got this.

Lesson Title: The History and Impact of Artificial Intelligence

Students will understand the history and development of AI and the potential positive and negative impacts on society.

AI timeline AI technologies and applications

Overview:

  1. Introduce the topic of artificial intelligence, and explain that it refers to the development of computer systems and algorithms that can simulate human intelligence and behavior.

  2. Show the timeline of significant events in the history of AI, and discuss the key milestones and developments in the field.

  3. Show examples of AI technologies and applications, and explain how they are used in various industries and fields.

  4. Discuss the potential positive and negative impacts of AI on society, including its potential to improve productivity, efficiency, and safety, as well as its potential to create new challenges and concerns, such as job displacement and ethical issues.

(many more details followed)

11. Find podcast guests.

Joeri Billast suggested:

Who should be on my Web3 podcast?

ChatGPT: Web3 marketing experts, influencers, and thought leaders make great podcast guests. These include Web3 marketers, content creators, business owners, entrepreneurs, and technologists. You could invite Web3 startups and organizations to your podcast.

Please give examples.

ChatGPT: Ideal Web3 marketing podcast guests include:

  • Tim Berner-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web

  • Chris Dixon, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz

  • Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum

  • Joe Lubin, founder of ConsenSys

  • Susan Fowler, author of Whistleblower

  • (many other suggestions)

12. Comments and reviews on social media

Lisa Monk thinks ChatGPT can help retail staff with social media.

She asked ChatGPT to "review this restaurant"

POSITIVE CUSTOMER REVIEW: I absolutely love this place. We eat out a lot however this place has topped it all. Perfect meals, amazing staff and the timing for it all was great! Special thanks to Sophie B (you rock) From your guests all the way from the Gold Coast, THANK YOU

ChatGPT REPLY: Thank you so much for your kind words and for taking the time to write a review. We are delighted to hear that you had such a great experience at our restaurant. We are thrilled that you enjoyed your meal and the service provided by Sophie. It’s always a pleasure to serve guests visiting from the Gold Coast and we are grateful for your support. We look forward to welcoming you back again soon. Thank you again for your positive review.

CUSTOMER REVIEW: Most average food, there is a nice view, But that’s about it

ChatGPT: Thank you for your review. We apologize if your dining experience was not up to your expectations. We strive to provide top-quality food and service to all of our customers, and we will take your feedback into consideration as we continue to improve. Thank you for letting us know about your experience.

13. Crime-fighting

Zack Seipert said, "I researched some famous unsolved murders, and ChatGPT laid out the crime, suspects, clues, and more." I bet experienced detectives could solve some of these cold cases.

14. Reduce bias

Joanne Taylor struggles to remove biases from her writing. She asked ChatGPT for ideas.

I asked ChatGPT to check a text for racial bias, and it did well.

15. Furnishings

I designed a small, unique table using ChatGPT and MidJourney. I edited ChatGPT's idea for clarity and brevity before entering it in MidJourney.

Results:

16. Serialize a novel

Scott Scowcoft led ChatCPT through iterations of a story text to create serialized novel frames. You can view this here.

17. Interview preparation

I was on a sales podcast. Although this is marketing-related, it's not my forte. I asked ChatGPT for help with a sales interview. Response:

Here are some interview questions about the future of sales and how to answer them.

How will technology affect sales in the future?

Technology will impact sales in the coming years. Automation and AI could be used to handle routine tasks, and data analysis and CRM could become more important. E-commerce and online sales channels are also reshaping the sales landscape.

How will the salesperson's role change?

Future sales roles may change in response to changing customer needs and expectations. Salespeople must be knowledgeable and consultative to help customers navigate complex products and services. Increasing importance of data analysis and CRM tools will require salespeople to understand and use technology effectively.

Future sales professionals will need what skills?

Future salespeople will need many skills. Sales professionals must have strong communication and interpersonal skills, as well as product and service knowledge and the ability to use data analysis and CRM tools effectively. Adapting to changing customer needs and staying current on industry trends will also be important for sales success.

18. Gift ideas

I need Christmas gift ideas for my wife. I asked:

Suggest a gift idea under $200 for a middle-aged woman who loves The Eagles.

A middle-aged woman who loves The Eagles might like a vinyl record of "Hotel California" or "The Long Run." Many music fans enjoy the unique sound and experience of vinyl records.

Pair the record with a high-quality record player for a complete gift. The vinyl record and record player should fit within your $200 budget for an Eagles fan.

19. Explaining complex concepts

I entered: Explain quantum physics to me as if I were 10 years old.

Quantum physics is a branch of science that studies how tiny particles, like atoms and subatomic particles, behave. These particles are so small that they don’t always follow the same rules as the things we can see and touch every day.

For example, sometimes they can be in two places at the same time, or they can be friends with each other even if they are far apart. This might sound strange, but it’s what scientists have learned from studying these tiny particles. Quantum physics helps us understand how the world works at a very small scale, and it can also help us make new technologies, like computers that are much faster than the ones we have today.

20. AP-style editing

Blogs, journals, and books follow AP Style. I asked ChatGPT to "edit using AP Style" and it did a great job.

And then... "Write a catchy headline for a blog post about 16 ChatGPT uses"

Here are some possible blog post titles for 20 creative ChatGPT uses:

  • “20 Fun and Creative Ways to Use ChatGPT: From Games to Quizzes and More”

  • “The Ultimate Guide to Using ChatGPT for Entertainment and Creativity”

  • “20 Reasons to Use ChatGPT: How it Can Enhance Your Gaming, Storytelling, and More”

  • 20 Entertaining Uses for ChatGPT You Never Knew Were Possible”

  • “Unleash Your Imagination with ChatGPT: 16 Creative and Fun Ways to Use it”

In a previous post, I said ChatGPT will change marketing careers forever. I have never made a statement like that in my life. Even in the early days of the internet, people were cautious.

This technology was just released two weeks ago, and over a million people are already using it. This is the fastest technology adoption in history.

Today's post offers inventive and entertaining ideas, but it's just the beginning. ChatGPT writes code, music, and papers.

Jan-Patrick Barnert

Jan-Patrick Barnert

3 years ago

Wall Street's Bear Market May Stick Around

If history is any guide, this bear market might be long and severe.

This is the S&P 500 Index's fourth such incident in 20 years. The last bear market of 2020 was a "shock trade" caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, although earlier ones in 2000 and 2008 took longer to bottom out and recover.

Peter Garnry, head of equities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, compares the current selloff to the dotcom bust of 2000 and the 1973-1974 bear market marked by soaring oil prices connected to an OPEC oil embargo. He blamed high tech valuations and the commodity crises.

"This drop might stretch over a year and reach 35%," Garnry wrote.

Here are six bear market charts.

Time/depth

The S&P 500 Index plummeted 51% between 2000 and 2002 and 58% during the global financial crisis; it took more than 1,000 trading days to recover. The former took 638 days to reach a bottom, while the latter took 352 days, suggesting the present selloff is young.

Valuations

Before the tech bubble burst in 2000, valuations were high. The S&P 500's forward P/E was 25 times then. Before the market fell this year, ahead values were near 24. Before the global financial crisis, stocks were relatively inexpensive, but valuations dropped more than 40%, compared to less than 30% now.

Earnings

Every stock crash, especially earlier bear markets, returned stocks to fundamentals. The S&P 500 decouples from earnings trends but eventually recouples.

Support

Central banks won't support equity investors just now. The end of massive monetary easing will terminate a two-year bull run that was among the strongest ever, and equities may struggle without cheap money. After years of "don't fight the Fed," investors must embrace a new strategy.

Bear Haunting Bear

If the past is any indication, rising government bond yields are bad news. After the financial crisis, skyrocketing rates and a falling euro pushed European stock markets back into bear territory in 2011.

Inflation/rates

The current monetary policy climate differs from past bear markets. This is the first time in a while that markets face significant inflation and rising rates.


This post is a summary. Read full article here