More on Entrepreneurship/Creators

Jenn Leach
3 years ago
How Much I Got Paid by YouTube for a 68 Million Views Video
My nameless, faceless channel case study
The Numbers
I anonymize this YouTube channel.
It's in a trendy, crowded niche. Sharing it publicly will likely enhance competition.
I'll still share my dashboard numbers:
A year ago, the video was released.
What I earned
I'll stop stalling. Here's a screenshot of my YouTube statistics page displaying Adsense profits.
YouTube Adsense made me ZERO dollars.
OMG!
How is this possible?
YouTube Adsense can't monetize my niche. This is typical in faceless niches like TikTok's rain videos. If they were started a while ago, I'm sure certain rain accounts are monetized, but not today.
I actually started a soothing sounds faceless YouTube channel. This was another account of mine.
I looped Pexels films for hours. No background music, just wind, rain, etc.
People could watch these videos to relax or get ready for bed. They're ideal for background noise and relaxation.
They're long-lasting, too. It's easy to make a lot from YouTube Adsense if you insert ads.
Anyway, I tried to monetize it and couldn’t. This was about a year ago. That’s why I doubt new accounts in this genre would be able to get approved for ads.
Back to my faceless channel with 68 million views.
I received nothing from YouTube Adsense, but I made money elsewhere.
Getting paid by the gods of affiliate marketing
Place links in the video and other videos on the channel to get money. Visitors that buy through your affiliate link earn you a commission.
This video earned many clicks on my affiliate links.
I linked to a couple of Amazon products, a YouTube creator tool, my kofi link, and my subscribe link.
Sponsorships
Brands pay you to include ads in your videos.
This video led to many sponsorships.
I've done dozens of sponsorship campaigns that paid $40 to $50 for an end screen to $450 for a preroll ad.
Last word
Overall, I made less than $3,000.
If I had time, I'd be more proactive with sponsorships. You can pitch brand sponsorships. This actually works.
I'd do that if I could rewind time.
I still can, but I think the reaction rate would be higher closer to the viral video's premiere date.

Rachel Greenberg
3 years ago
The Unsettling Fact VC-Backed Entrepreneurs Don't Want You to Know
What they'll do is scarier.
My acquaintance recently joined a VC-funded startup. Money, equity, and upside possibilities were nice, but he had a nagging dread.
They just secured a $40M round and are hiring like crazy to prepare for their IPO in two years. All signals pointed to this startup's (a B2B IT business in a stable industry) success, and its equity-holding workers wouldn't pass that up.
Five months after starting the work, my friend struggled with leaving. We might overlook the awful culture and long hours at the proper price. This price plus the company's fate and survival abilities sent my friend departing in an unpleasant unplanned resignation before jumping on yet another sinking ship.
This affects founders. This affects VC-backed companies (and all businesses). This affects anyone starting, buying, or running a business.
Here's the under-the-table approach that's draining VC capital, leaving staff terrified (or jobless), founders rattled, and investors upset. How to recognize, solve, and avoid it
The unsettling reality behind door #1
You can't raise money off just your looks, right? If "looks" means your founding team's expertise, then maybe. In my friend's case, the founding team's strong qualifications and track records won over investors before talking figures.
They're hardly the only startup to raise money without a profitable customer acquisition strategy. Another firm raised money for an expensive sleep product because it's eco-friendly. They were off to the races with a few keywords and key players.
Both companies, along with numerous others, elected to invest on product development first. Company A employed all the tech, then courted half their market (they’re a tech marketplace that connects two parties). Company B spent millions on R&D to create a palatable product, then flooded the world with marketing.
My friend is on Company B's financial team, and he's seen where they've gone wrong. It's terrible.
Company A (tech market): Growing? Not quite. To achieve the ambitious expansion they (and their investors) demand, they've poured much of their little capital into salespeople: Cold-calling commission and salary salesmen. Is it working? Considering attrition and companies' dwindling capital, I don't think so.
Company B (green sleep) has been hiring, digital marketing, and opening new stores like crazy. Growing expenses should result in growing revenues and a favorable return on investment; if you grow too rapidly, you may neglect to check that ROI.
Once Company A cut headcount and Company B declared “going concerned”, my friend realized both startups had the same ailment and didn't recognize it.
I shouldn't have to ask a friend to verify a company's cash reserves and profitability to spot a financial problem. It happened anyhow.
The frightening part isn't that investors were willing to invest millions without product-market fit, CAC, or LTV estimates. That's alarming, but not as scary as the fact that startups aren't understanding the problem until VC rounds have dried up.
When they question consultants if their company will be around in 6 months. It’s a red flag. How will they stretch $20M through a 2-year recession with a $3M/month burn rate and no profitability? Alarms go off.
Who's in danger?
In a word, everyone who raised money without a profitable client acquisition strategy or enough resources to ride out dry spells.
Money mismanagement and poor priorities affect every industry (like sinking all your capital into your product, team, or tech, at the expense of probing what customer acquisition really takes and looks like).
This isn't about tech, real estate, or recession-proof luxury products. Fast, cheap, easy money flows into flashy-looking teams with buzzwords, trending industries, and attractive credentials.
If these companies can't show progress or get a profitable CAC, they can't raise more money. They die if they can't raise more money (or slash headcount and find shoestring budget solutions until they solve the real problem).
The kiss of death (and how to avoid it)
If you're running a startup and think raising VC is the answer, pause and evaluate. Do you need the money now?
I'm not saying VC is terrible or has no role. Founders have used it as a Band-Aid for larger, pervasive problems. Venture cash isn't a crutch for recruiting consumers profitably; it's rocket fuel to get you what and who you need.
Pay-to-play isn't a way to throw money at the wall and hope for a return. Pay-to-play works until you run out of money, and if you haven't mastered client acquisition, your cash will diminish quickly.
How can you avoid this bottomless pit? Tips:
Understand your burn rate
Keep an eye on your growth or profitability.
Analyze each and every marketing channel and initiative.
Make lucrative customer acquisition strategies and satisfied customers your top two priorities. not brand-new products. not stellar hires. avoid the fundraising rollercoaster to save time. If you succeed in these two tasks, investors will approach you with their thirsty offers rather than the other way around, and your cash reserves won't diminish as a result.
Not as much as your grandfather
My family friend always justified expensive, impractical expenditures by saying it was only monopoly money. In business, startups, and especially with money from investors expecting a return, that's not true.
More founders could understand that there isn't always another round if they viewed VC money as their own limited pool. When the well runs dry, you must refill it or save the day.
Venture financing isn't your grandpa's money. A discerning investor has entrusted you with dry powder in the hope that you'll use it wisely, strategically, and thoughtfully. Use it well.

Navdeep Yadav
3 years ago
31 startup company models (with examples)
Many people find the internet's various business models bewildering.
This article summarizes 31 startup e-books.
1. Using the freemium business model (free plus premium),
The freemium business model offers basic software, games, or services for free and charges for enhancements.
Examples include Slack, iCloud, and Google Drive
Provide a rudimentary, free version of your product or service to users.
Google Drive and Dropbox offer 15GB and 2GB of free space but charge for more.
Freemium business model details (Click here)
2. The Business Model of Subscription
Subscription business models sell a product or service for recurring monthly or yearly revenue.
Examples: Tinder, Netflix, Shopify, etc
It's the next step to Freemium if a customer wants to pay monthly for premium features.
Subscription Business Model (Click here)
3. A market-based business strategy
It's an e-commerce site or app where third-party sellers sell products or services.
Examples are Amazon and Fiverr.
On Amazon's marketplace, a third-party vendor sells a product.
Freelancers on Fiverr offer specialized skills like graphic design.
Marketplace's business concept is explained.
4. Business plans using aggregates
In the aggregator business model, the service is branded.
Uber, Airbnb, and other examples
Marketplace and Aggregator business models differ.
Amazon and Fiverr link merchants and customers and take a 10-20% revenue split.
Uber and Airbnb-style aggregator Join these businesses and provide their products.
5. The pay-as-you-go concept of business
This is a consumption-based pricing system. Cloud companies use it.
Example: Amazon Web Service and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) (AWS)
AWS, an Amazon subsidiary, offers over 200 pay-as-you-go cloud services.
“In short, the more you use the more you pay”
When it's difficult to divide clients into pricing levels, pay-as-you is employed.
6. The business model known as fee-for-service (FFS)
FFS charges fixed and variable fees for each successful payment.
For instance, PayU, Paypal, and Stripe
Stripe charges 2.9% + 30 per payment.
These firms offer a payment gateway to take consumer payments and deposit them to a business account.
Fintech business model
7. EdTech business strategy
In edtech, you generate money by selling material or teaching as a service.
edtech business models
Freemium When course content is free but certification isn't, e.g. Coursera
FREE TRIAL SkillShare offers free trials followed by monthly or annual subscriptions.
Self-serving marketplace approach where you pick what to learn.
Ad-revenue model The company makes money by showing adverts to its huge user base.
Lock-in business strategy
Lock in prevents customers from switching to a competitor's brand or offering.
It uses switching costs or effort to transmit (soft lock-in), improved brand experience, or incentives.
Apple, SAP, and other examples
Apple offers an iPhone and then locks you in with extra hardware (Watch, Airpod) and platform services (Apple Store, Apple Music, cloud, etc.).
9. Business Model for API Licensing
APIs let third-party apps communicate with your service.
Uber and Airbnb use Google Maps APIs for app navigation.
Examples are Google Map APIs (Map), Sendgrid (Email), and Twilio (SMS).
Business models for APIs
Free: The simplest API-driven business model that enables unrestricted API access for app developers. Google Translate and Facebook are two examples.
Developer Pays: Under this arrangement, service providers such as AWS, Twilio, Github, Stripe, and others must be paid by application developers.
The developer receives payment: These are the compensated content producers or developers who distribute the APIs utilizing their work. For example, Amazon affiliate programs
10. Open-source enterprise
Open-source software can be inspected, modified, and improved by anybody.
For instance, use Firefox, Java, or Android.
Google paid Mozilla $435,702 million to be their primary search engine in 2018.
Open-source software profits in six ways.
Paid assistance The Project Manager can charge for customization because he is quite knowledgeable about the codebase.
A full database solution is available as a Software as a Service (MongoDB Atlas), but there is a fee for the monitoring tool.
Open-core design R studio is a better GUI substitute for open-source applications.
sponsors of GitHub Sponsorships benefit the developers in full.
demands for paid features Earn Money By Developing Open Source Add-Ons for Current Products
Open-source business model
11. The business model for data
If the software or algorithm collects client data to improve or monetize the system.
Open AI GPT3 gets smarter with use.
Foursquare allows users to exchange check-in locations.
Later, they compiled large datasets to enable retailers like Starbucks launch new outlets.
12. Business Model Using Blockchain
Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology that allows firms to deploy smart contracts without a central authority.
Examples include Alchemy, Solana, and Ethereum.
Business models using blockchain
Economy of tokens or utility When a business uses a token business model, it issues some kind of token as one of the ways to compensate token holders or miners. For instance, Solana and Ethereum
Bitcoin Cash P2P Business Model Peer-to-peer (P2P) blockchain technology permits direct communication between end users. as in IPFS
Enterprise Blockchain as a Service (Baas) BaaS focuses on offering ecosystem services similar to those offered by Amazon (AWS) and Microsoft (Azure) in the web 3 sector. Example: Ethereum Blockchain as a Service with Bitcoin (EBaaS).
Blockchain-Based Aggregators With AWS for blockchain, you can use that service by making an API call to your preferred blockchain. As an illustration, Alchemy offers nodes for many blockchains.
13. The free-enterprise model
In the freeterprise business model, free professional accounts are led into the funnel by the free product and later become B2B/enterprise accounts.
For instance, Slack and Zoom
Freeterprise companies flourish through collaboration.
Start with a free professional account to build an enterprise.
14. Business plan for razor blades
It's employed in hardware where one piece is sold at a loss and profits are made through refills or add-ons.
Gillet razor & blades, coffee machine & beans, HP printer & cartridge, etc.
Sony sells the Playstation console at a loss but makes up for it by selling games and charging for online services.
Advantages of the Razor-Razorblade Method
lowers the risk a customer will try a product. enables buyers to test the goods and services without having to pay a high initial investment.
The product's ongoing revenue stream has the potential to generate sales that much outweigh the original investments.
Razor blade business model
15. The business model of direct-to-consumer (D2C)
In D2C, the company sells directly to the end consumer through its website using a third-party logistic partner.
Examples include GymShark and Kylie Cosmetics.
D2C brands can only expand via websites, marketplaces (Amazon, eBay), etc.
D2C benefits
Lower reliance on middlemen = greater profitability
You now have access to more precise demographic and geographic customer data.
Additional space for product testing
Increased customisation throughout your entire product line-Inventory Less
16. Business model: White Label vs. Private Label
Private label/White label products are made by a contract or third-party manufacturer.
Most amazon electronics are made in china and white-labeled.
Amazon supplements and electronics.
Contract manufacturers handle everything after brands select product quantities on design labels.
17. The franchise model
The franchisee uses the franchisor's trademark, branding, and business strategy (company).
For instance, KFC, Domino's, etc.
Subway, Domino, Burger King, etc. use this business strategy.
Many people pick a franchise because opening a restaurant is risky.
18. Ad-based business model
Social media and search engine giants exploit search and interest data to deliver adverts.
Google, Meta, TikTok, and Snapchat are some examples.
Users don't pay for the service or product given, e.g. Google users don't pay for searches.
In exchange, they collected data and hyper-personalized adverts to maximize revenue.
19. Business plan for octopuses
Each business unit functions separately but is connected to the main body.
Instance: Oyo
OYO is Asia's Airbnb, operating hotels, co-working, co-living, and vacation houses.
20, Transactional business model, number
Sales to customers produce revenue.
E-commerce sites and online purchases employ SSL.
Goli is an ex-GymShark.
21. The peer-to-peer (P2P) business model
In P2P, two people buy and sell goods and services without a third party or platform.
Consider OLX.
22. P2P lending as a manner of operation
In P2P lending, one private individual (P2P Lender) lends/invests or borrows money from another (P2P Borrower).
Instance: Kabbage
Social lending lets people lend and borrow money directly from each other without an intermediary financial institution.
23. A business model for brokers
Brokerages charge a commission or fee for their services.
Examples include eBay, Coinbase, and Robinhood.
Brokerage businesses are common in Real estate, finance, and online and operate on this model.
Buy/sell similar models Examples include financial brokers, insurance brokers, and others who match purchase and sell transactions and charge a commission.
These brokers charge an advertiser a fee based on the date, place, size, or type of an advertisement. This is known as the classified-advertiser model. For instance, Craiglist
24. Drop shipping as an industry
Dropshipping allows stores to sell things without holding physical inventories.
When a customer orders, use a third-party supplier and logistic partners.
Retailer product portfolio and customer experience Fulfiller The consumer places the order.
Dropshipping advantages
Less money is needed (Low overhead-No Inventory or warehousing)
Simple to start (costs under $100)
flexible work environment
New product testing is simpler
25. Business Model for Space as a Service
It's centered on a shared economy that lets millennials live or work in communal areas without ownership or lease.
Consider WeWork and Airbnb.
WeWork helps businesses with real estate, legal compliance, maintenance, and repair.
26. The business model for third-party logistics (3PL)
In 3PL, a business outsources product delivery, warehousing, and fulfillment to an external logistics company.
Examples include Ship Bob, Amazon Fulfillment, and more.
3PL partners warehouse, fulfill, and return inbound and outbound items for a charge.
Inbound logistics involves bringing products from suppliers to your warehouse.
Outbound logistics refers to a company's production line, warehouse, and customer.
27. The last-mile delivery paradigm as a commercial strategy
Last-mile delivery is the collection of supply chain actions that reach the end client.
Examples include Rappi, Gojek, and Postmates.
Last-mile is tied to on-demand and has a nighttime peak.
28. The use of affiliate marketing
Affiliate marketing involves promoting other companies' products and charging commissions.
Examples include Hubspot, Amazon, and Skillshare.
Your favorite youtube channel probably uses these short amazon links to get 5% of sales.
Affiliate marketing's benefits
In exchange for a success fee or commission, it enables numerous independent marketers to promote on its behalf.
Ensure system transparency by giving the influencers a specific tracking link and an online dashboard to view their profits.
Learn about the newest bargains and have access to promotional materials.
29. The business model for virtual goods
This is an in-app purchase for an intangible product.
Examples include PubG, Roblox, Candy Crush, etc.
Consumables are like gaming cash that runs out. Non-consumable products provide a permanent advantage without repeated purchases.
30. Business Models for Cloud Kitchens
Ghost, Dark, Black Box, etc.
Delivery-only restaurant.
These restaurants don't provide dine-in, only delivery.
For instance, NextBite and Faasos
31. Crowdsourcing as a Business Model
Crowdsourcing = Using the crowd as a platform's source.
In crowdsourcing, you get support from people around the world without hiring them.
Crowdsourcing sites
Open-Source Software gives access to the software's source code so that developers can edit or enhance it. Examples include Firefox browsers and Linux operating systems.
Crowdfunding The oculus headgear would be an example of crowdfunding in essence, with no expectations.
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Tim Soulo
3 years ago
Here is why 90.63% of Pages Get No Traffic From Google.
The web adds millions or billions of pages per day.
How much Google traffic does this content get?
In 2017, we studied 2 million randomly-published pages to answer this question. Only 5.7% of them ranked in Google's top 10 search results within a year of being published.
94.3 percent of roughly two million pages got no Google traffic.
Two million pages is a small sample compared to the entire web. We did another study.
We analyzed over a billion pages to see how many get organic search traffic and why.
How many pages get search traffic?
90% of pages in our index get no Google traffic, and 5.2% get ten visits or less.
90% of google pages get no organic traffic
How can you join the minority that gets Google organic search traffic?
There are hundreds of SEO problems that can hurt your Google rankings. If we only consider common scenarios, there are only four.
Reason #1: No backlinks
I hate to repeat what most SEO articles say, but it's true:
Backlinks boost Google rankings.
Google's "top 3 ranking factors" include them.
Why don't we divide our studied pages by the number of referring domains?
66.31 percent of pages have no backlinks, and 26.29 percent have three or fewer.
Did you notice the trend already?
Most pages lack search traffic and backlinks.
But are these the same pages?
Let's compare monthly organic search traffic to backlinks from unique websites (referring domains):
More backlinks equals more Google organic traffic.
Referring domains and keyword rankings are correlated.
It's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and none of these graphs prove backlinks boost Google rankings. Most SEO professionals agree that it's nearly impossible to rank on the first page without backlinks.
You'll need high-quality backlinks to rank in Google and get search traffic.
Is organic traffic possible without links?
Here are the numbers:
Four million pages get organic search traffic without backlinks. Only one in 20 pages without backlinks has traffic, which is 5% of our sample.
Most get 300 or fewer organic visits per month.
What happens if we exclude high-Domain-Rating pages?
The numbers worsen. Less than 4% of our sample (1.4 million pages) receive organic traffic. Only 320,000 get over 300 monthly organic visits, or 0.1% of our sample.
This suggests high-authority pages without backlinks are more likely to get organic traffic than low-authority pages.
Internal links likely pass PageRank to new pages.
Two other reasons:
Our crawler's blocked. Most shady SEOs block backlinks from us. This prevents competitors from seeing (and reporting) PBNs.
They choose low-competition subjects. Low-volume queries are less competitive, requiring fewer backlinks to rank.
If the idea of getting search traffic without building backlinks excites you, learn about Keyword Difficulty and how to find keywords/topics with decent traffic potential and low competition.
Reason #2: The page has no long-term traffic potential.
Some pages with many backlinks get no Google traffic.
Why? I filtered Content Explorer for pages with no organic search traffic and divided them into four buckets by linking domains.
Almost 70k pages have backlinks from over 200 domains, but no search traffic.
By manually reviewing these (and other) pages, I noticed two general trends that explain why they get no traffic:
They overdid "shady link building" and got penalized by Google;
They're not targeting a Google-searched topic.
I won't elaborate on point one because I hope you don't engage in "shady link building"
#2 is self-explanatory:
If nobody searches for what you write, you won't get search traffic.
Consider one of our blog posts' metrics:
No organic traffic despite 337 backlinks from 132 sites.
The page is about "organic traffic research," which nobody searches for.
News articles often have this. They get many links from around the web but little Google traffic.
People can't search for things they don't know about, and most don't care about old events and don't search for them.
Note:
Some news articles rank in the "Top stories" block for relevant, high-volume search queries, generating short-term organic search traffic.
The Guardian's top "Donald Trump" story:
Ahrefs caught on quickly:
"Donald Trump" gets 5.6M monthly searches, so this page got a lot of "Top stories" traffic.
I bet traffic has dropped if you check now.
One of the quickest and most effective SEO wins is:
Find your website's pages with the most referring domains;
Do keyword research to re-optimize them for relevant topics with good search traffic potential.
Bryan Harris shared this "quick SEO win" during a course interview:
He suggested using Ahrefs' Site Explorer's "Best by links" report to find your site's most-linked pages and analyzing their search traffic. This finds pages with lots of links but little organic search traffic.
We see:
The guide has 67 backlinks but no organic traffic.
We could fix this by re-optimizing the page for "SERP"
A similar guide with 26 backlinks gets 3,400 monthly organic visits, so we should easily increase our traffic.
Don't do this with all low-traffic pages with backlinks. Choose your battles wisely; some pages shouldn't be ranked.
Reason #3: Search intent isn't met
Google returns the most relevant search results.
That's why blog posts with recommendations rank highest for "best yoga mat."
Google knows that most searchers aren't buying.
It's also why this yoga mats page doesn't rank, despite having seven times more backlinks than the top 10 pages:
The page ranks for thousands of other keywords and gets tens of thousands of monthly organic visits. Not being the "best yoga mat" isn't a big deal.
If you have pages with lots of backlinks but no organic traffic, re-optimizing them for search intent can be a quick SEO win.
It was originally a boring landing page describing our product's benefits and offering a 7-day trial.
We realized the problem after analyzing search intent.
People wanted a free tool, not a landing page.
In September 2018, we published a free tool at the same URL. Organic traffic and rankings skyrocketed.
Reason #4: Unindexed page
Google can’t rank pages that aren’t indexed.
If you think this is the case, search Google for site:[url]. You should see at least one result; otherwise, it’s not indexed.
A rogue noindex meta tag is usually to blame. This tells search engines not to index a URL.
Rogue canonicals, redirects, and robots.txt blocks prevent indexing.
Check the "Excluded" tab in Google Search Console's "Coverage" report to see excluded pages.
Google doesn't index broken pages, even with backlinks.
Surprisingly common.
In Ahrefs' Site Explorer, the Best by Links report for a popular content marketing blog shows many broken pages.
One dead page has 131 backlinks:
According to the URL, the page defined content marketing. —a keyword with a monthly search volume of 5,900 in the US.
Luckily, another page ranks for this keyword. Not a huge loss.
At least redirect the dead page's backlinks to a working page on the same topic. This may increase long-tail keyword traffic.
This post is a summary. See the original post here

Steve QJ
3 years ago
Putin's War On Reality
The dictator's playbook.
Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev, delivered a speech titled "On The Cult Of Personality And Its Consequences" in 1956, three years after Stalin’s death.
It was Stalin's grave abuse of power that caused untold harm to our party.
Stalin acted not by persuasion, explanation, or patient cooperation, but by imposing his ideas and demanding absolute obedience. […]
See where Stalin's mania for greatness led? He had lost all sense of reality.
The speech, which was never made public, shook the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc. After Stalin's "cult of personality" was exposed as a lie, only reality remained.
As I've watched the nightmare unfold in Ukraine, I'm reminded of that question. Primarily by Putin's repeated denials.
His odd claim that Ukraine is run by drug addicts and Nazis (especially strange given that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, is Jewish). Others attempt to portray Russia as liberators rather than occupiers. For example, he portrays Luhansk and Donetsk as plucky, newly independent states when they have been totalitarian statelets for 8 years.
Putin seemed to have lost all sense of reality.
Maybe that's why his remarks to an oligarchs' gathering stood out:
Everything is a desperate measure. They gave us no choice. We couldn't do anything about their security risks. […] They could have put the country in jeopardy.
This is almost certainly true from Putin's perspective. Even for Putin, a military invasion seems unlikely. So, what exactly is putting Russia's security in jeopardy? How could Ukraine's independence endanger Russia's existence?
The truth is the only thing that truly terrifies leaders like these.
Trump, the president of “alternative facts,” "and “fake news” praised Putin's fabricated justifications for the Ukraine invasion. Russia tightened news censorship as news of their losses came in. It's no accident that modern dictatorships like Russia (and China and North Korea) restrict citizens' access to information.
Controlling what people see, hear, and think is the simplest method. And Ukraine's recent efforts to join the European Union showed a country whose thoughts Putin couldn't control. With the Russian and Ukrainian peoples so close, he could not control their reality.
He appears to think this is a threat worth fighting NATO over.
It's easy to disown history's great dictators. By the magnitude of their harm. But the strategy they used is still in use today, albeit not to the same devastating effect.
The Kim dynasty in North Korea has ruled for 74 years, Putin has ruled Russia for 19 years (using loopholes and even rewriting the constitution).
“Politicians and diapers must be changed frequently,” said Mark Twain. "And for the same reason.”
When their egos are threatened, they sabre-rattle, as in Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump's famous spat about the size of their...ahem, “nuclear buttons”." Or Putin's threats of mutual destruction this weekend.
Most importantly, they have cult-like control over their followers.
When a leader whose power is built on lies feels he is losing control of the narrative, things like Trump's Jan. 6 meltdown and Putin's current actions in Ukraine are unavoidable.
Leaders who try to control their people's reality will have to die to keep the illusion alive.
Long version of this post available here

Ben Carlson
3 years ago
Bear market duration and how to invest during one
Bear markets don't last forever, but that's hard to remember. Jamie Cullen's illustration
A bear market is a 20% decline from peak to trough in stock prices.
The S&P 500 was down 24% from its January highs at its low point this year. Bear market.
The U.S. stock market has had 13 bear markets since WWII (including the current one). Previous 12 bear markets averaged –32.7% losses. From peak to trough, the stock market averaged 12 months. The average time from bottom to peak was 21 months.
In the past seven decades, a bear market roundtrip to breakeven has averaged less than three years.
Long-term averages can vary widely, as with all historical market data. Investors can learn from past market crashes.
Historical bear markets offer lessons.
Bear market duration
A bear market can cost investors money and time. Most of the pain comes from stock market declines, but bear markets can be long.
Here are the longest U.S. stock bear markets since World war 2:
Stock market crashes can make it difficult to break even. After the 2008 financial crisis, the stock market took 4.5 years to recover. After the dotcom bubble burst, it took seven years to break even.
The longer you're underwater in the market, the more suffering you'll experience, according to research. Suffering can lead to selling at the wrong time.
Bear markets require patience because stocks can take a long time to recover.
Stock crash recovery
Bear markets can end quickly. The Corona Crash in early 2020 is an example.
The S&P 500 fell 34% in 23 trading sessions, the fastest bear market from a high in 90 years. The entire crash lasted one month. Stocks broke even six months after bottoming. Stocks rose 100% from those lows in 15 months.
Seven bear markets have lasted two years or less since 1945.
The 2020 recovery was an outlier, but four other bear markets have made investors whole within 18 months.
During a bear market, you don't know if it will end quickly or feel like death by a thousand cuts.
Recessions vs. bear markets
Many people believe the U.S. economy is in or heading for a recession.
I agree. Four-decade high inflation. Since 1945, inflation has exceeded 5% nine times. Each inflationary spike caused a recession. Only slowing economic demand seems to stop price spikes.
This could happen again. Stocks seem to be pricing in a recession.
Recessions almost always cause a bear market, but a bear market doesn't always equal a recession. In 1946, the stock market fell 27% without a recession in sight. Without an economic slowdown, the stock market fell 22% in 1966. Black Monday in 1987 was the most famous stock market crash without a recession. Stocks fell 30% in less than a week. Many believed the stock market signaled a depression. The crash caused no slowdown.
Economic cycles are hard to predict. Even Wall Street makes mistakes.
Bears vs. bulls
Bear markets for U.S. stocks always end. Every stock market crash in U.S. history has been followed by new all-time highs.
How should investors view the recession? Investing risk is subjective.
You don't have as long to wait out a bear market if you're retired or nearing retirement. Diversification and liquidity help investors with limited time or income. Cash and short-term bonds drag down long-term returns but can ensure short-term spending.
Young people with years or decades ahead of them should view this bear market as an opportunity. Stock market crashes are good for net savers in the future. They let you buy cheap stocks with high dividend yields.
You need discipline, patience, and planning to buy stocks when it doesn't feel right.
Bear markets aren't fun because no one likes seeing their portfolio fall. But stock market downturns are a feature, not a bug. If stocks never crashed, they wouldn't offer such great long-term returns.
