More on Entrepreneurship/Creators
DC Palter
2 years ago
Is Venture Capital a Good Fit for Your Startup?
5 VC investment criteria
I reviewed 200 startup business concepts last week. Brainache.
The enterprises sold various goods and services. The concepts were achingly similar: give us money, we'll produce a product, then get more to expand. No different from daily plans and pitches.
Most of those 200 plans sounded plausible. But 10% looked venture-worthy. 90% of startups need alternatives to venture finance.
With the success of VC-backed businesses and the growth of venture funds, a common misperception is that investors would fund any decent company idea. Finding investors that believe in the firm and founders is the key to funding.
Incorrect. Venture capital needs investing in certain enterprises. If your startup doesn't match the model, as most early-stage startups don't, you can revise your business plan or locate another source of capital.
Before spending six months pitching angels and VCs, make sure your startup fits these criteria.
Likely to generate $100 million in sales
First, I check the income predictions in a pitch deck. If it doesn't display $100M, don't bother.
The math doesn't work for venture financing in smaller businesses.
Say a fund invests $1 million in a startup valued at $5 million that is later acquired for $20 million. That's a win everyone should celebrate. Most VCs don't care.
Consider a $100M fund. The fund must reach $360M in 7 years with a 20% return. Only 20-30 investments are possible. 90% of the investments will fail, hence the 23 winners must return $100M-$200M apiece. $15M isn't worth the work.
Angel investors and tiny funds use the same ideas as venture funds, but their smaller scale affects the calculations. If a company can support its growth through exit on less than $2M in angel financing, it must have $25M in revenues before large companies will consider acquiring it.
Aiming for Hypergrowth
A startup's size isn't enough. It must expand fast.
Developing a great business takes time. Complex technology must be constructed and tested, a nationwide expansion must be built, or production procedures must go from lab to pilot to factories. These can be enormous, world-changing corporations, but venture investment is difficult.
The normal 10-year venture fund life. Investments are made during first 3–4 years.. 610 years pass between investment and fund dissolution. Funds need their investments to exit within 5 years, 7 at the most, therefore add a safety margin.
Longer exit times reduce ROI. A 2-fold return in a year is excellent. Loss at 2x in 7 years.
Lastly, VCs must prove success to raise their next capital. The 2nd fund is raised from 1st fund portfolio increases. Third fund is raised using 1st fund's cash return. Fund managers must raise new money quickly to keep their jobs.
Branding or technology that is protected
No big firm will buy a startup at a high price if they can produce a competing product for less. Their development teams, consumer base, and sales and marketing channels are large. Who needs you?
Patents, specialist knowledge, or brand name are the only answers. The acquirer buys this, not the thing.
I've heard of several promising startups. It's not a decent investment if there's no exit strategy.
A company that installs EV charging stations in apartments and shopping areas is an example. It's profitable, repeatable, and big. A terrific company. Not a startup.
This building company's operations aren't secret. No technology to protect, no special information competitors can't figure out, no go-to brand name. Despite the immense possibilities, a large construction company would be better off starting their own.
Most venture businesses build products, not services. Services can be profitable but hard to safeguard.
Probable purchase at high multiple
Once a software business proves its value, acquiring it is easy. Pharma and medtech firms have given up on their own research and instead acquire startups after regulatory permission. Many startups, especially in specialized areas, have this weakness.
That doesn't mean any lucrative $25M-plus business won't be acquired. In many businesses, the venture model requires a high exit premium.
A startup invents a new glue. 3M, BASF, Henkel, and others may buy them. Adding more adhesive to their catalogs won't boost commerce. They won't compete to buy the business. They'll only buy a startup at a profitable price. The acquisition price represents a moderate EBITDA multiple.
The company's $100M revenue presumably yields $10m in profits (assuming they’ve reached profitability at all). A $30M-$50M transaction is likely. Not terrible, but not what venture investors want after investing $25M to create a plant and develop the business.
Private equity buys profitable companies for a moderate profit multiple. It's a good exit for entrepreneurs, but not for investors seeking 10x or more what PE firms pay. If a startup offers private equity as an exit, the conversation is over.
Constructed for purchase
The startup wants a high-multiple exit. Unless the company targets $1B in revenue and does an IPO, exit means acquisition.
If they're constructing the business for acquisition or themselves, founders must decide.
If you want an indefinitely-running business, I applaud you. We need more long-term founders. Most successful organizations are founded around consumer demands, not venture capital's urge to grow fast and exit. Not venture funding.
if you don't match the venture model, what to do
VC funds moonshots. The 10% that succeed are extraordinary. Not every firm is a rocketship, and launching the wrong startup into space, even with money, will explode.
But just because your startup won't make $100M in 5 years doesn't mean it's a bad business. Most successful companies don't follow this model. It's not venture capital-friendly.
Although venture capital gets the most attention due to a few spectacular triumphs (and disasters), it's not the only or even most typical option to fund a firm.
Other ways to support your startup:
Personal and family resources, such as credit cards, second mortgages, and lines of credit
bootstrapping off of sales
government funding and honors
Private equity & project financing
collaborating with a big business
Including a business partner
Before pitching angels and VCs, be sure your startup qualifies. If so, include them in your pitch.
Sammy Abdullah
3 years ago
SaaS payback period data
It's ok and even desired to be unprofitable if you're gaining revenue at a reasonable cost and have 100%+ net dollar retention, meaning you never lose customers and expand them. To estimate the acceptable cost of new SaaS revenue, we compare new revenue to operating loss and payback period. If you pay back the customer acquisition cost in 1.5 years and never lose them (100%+ NDR), you're doing well.
To evaluate payback period, we compared new revenue to net operating loss for the last 73 SaaS companies to IPO since October 2017. (55 out of 73). Here's the data. 1/(new revenue/operating loss) equals payback period. New revenue/operating loss equals cost of new revenue.
Payback averages a year. 55 SaaS companies that weren't profitable at IPO got a 1-year payback. Outstanding. If you pay for a customer in a year and never lose them (100%+ NDR), you're establishing a valuable business. The average was 1.3 years, which is within the 1.5-year range.
New revenue costs $0.96 on average. These SaaS companies lost $0.96 every $1 of new revenue last year. Again, impressive. Average new revenue per operating loss was $1.59.
Loss-in-operations definition. Operating loss revenue COGS S&M R&D G&A (technical point: be sure to use the absolute value of operating loss). It's wrong to only consider S&M costs and ignore other business costs. Operating loss and new revenue are measured over one year to eliminate seasonality.
Operating losses are desirable if you never lose a customer and have a quick payback period, especially when SaaS enterprises are valued on ARR. The payback period should be under 1.5 years, the cost of new income < $1, and net dollar retention 100%.
Thomas Tcheudjio
3 years ago
If you don't crush these 3 metrics, skip the Series A.
I recently wrote about getting VCs excited about Marketplace start-ups. SaaS founders became envious!
Understanding how people wire tens of millions is the only Series A hack I recommend.
Few people understand the intellectual process behind investing.
VC is risk management.
Series A-focused VCs must cover two risks.
1. Market risk
You need a large market to cross a threshold beyond which you can build defensibilities. Series A VCs underwrite market risk.
They must see you have reached product-market fit (PMF) in a large total addressable market (TAM).
2. Execution risk
When evaluating your growth engine's blitzscaling ability, execution risk arises.
When investors remove operational uncertainty, they profit.
Series A VCs like businesses with derisked revenue streams. Don't raise unless you have a predictable model, pipeline, and growth.
Please beat these 3 metrics before Series A:
Achieve $1.5m ARR in 12-24 months (Market risk)
Above 100% Net Dollar Retention. (Market danger)
Lead Velocity Rate supporting $10m ARR in 2–4 years (Execution risk)
Hit the 3 and you'll raise $10M in 4 months. Discussing 2/3 may take 6–7 months.
If none, don't bother raising and focus on becoming a capital-efficient business (Topics for other posts).
Let's examine these 3 metrics for the brave ones.
1. Lead Velocity Rate supporting €$10m ARR in 2 to 4 years
Last because it's the least discussed. LVR is the most reliable data when evaluating a growth engine, in my opinion.
SaaS allows you to see the future.
Monthly Sales and Sales Pipelines, two predictive KPIs, have poor data quality. Both are lagging indicators, and minor changes can cause huge modeling differences.
Analysts and Associates will trash your forecasts if they're based only on Monthly Sales and Sales Pipeline.
LVR, defined as month-over-month growth in qualified leads, is rock-solid. There's no lag. You can See The Future if you use Qualified Leads and a consistent formula and process to qualify them.
With this metric in your hand, scaling your company turns into an execution play on which VCs are able to perform calculations risk.
2. Above-100% Net Dollar Retention.
Net Dollar Retention is a better-known SaaS health metric than LVR.
Net Dollar Retention measures a SaaS company's ability to retain and upsell customers. Ask what $1 of net new customer spend will be worth in years n+1, n+2, etc.
Depending on the business model, SaaS businesses can increase their share of customers' wallets by increasing users, selling them more products in SaaS-enabled marketplaces, other add-ons, and renewing them at higher price tiers.
If a SaaS company's annualized Net Dollar Retention is less than 75%, there's a problem with the business.
Slack's ARR chart (below) shows how powerful Net Retention is. Layer chart shows how existing customer revenue grows. Slack's S1 shows 171% Net Dollar Retention for 2017–2019.
Slack S-1
3. $1.5m ARR in the last 12-24 months.
According to Point 9, $0.5m-4m in ARR is needed to raise a $5–12m Series A round.
Target at least what you raised in Pre-Seed/Seed. If you've raised $1.5m since launch, don't raise before $1.5m ARR.
Capital efficiency has returned since Covid19. After raising $2m since inception, it's harder to raise $1m in ARR.
P9's 2016-2021 SaaS Funding Napkin
In summary, less than 1% of companies VCs meet get funded. These metrics can help you win.
If there’s demand for it, I’ll do one on direct-to-consumer.
Cheers!
You might also like
INTΞGRITY team
3 years ago
Privacy Policy
Effective date: August 31, 2022
This Privacy Statement describes how INTΞGRITY ("we," or "us") collects, uses, and discloses your personal information. This Privacy Statement applies when you use our websites, mobile applications, and other online products and services that link to this Privacy Statement (collectively, our "Services"), communicate with our customer care team, interact with us on social media, or otherwise interact with us.
This Privacy Policy may be modified from time to time. If we make modifications, we will update the date at the top of this policy and, in certain instances, we may give you extra notice (such as adding a statement to our website or providing you with a notification). We encourage you to routinely review this Privacy Statement to remain informed about our information practices and available options.
INFORMATION COLLECTION
The Data You Provide to Us
We collect information that you directly supply to us. When you register an account, fill out a form, submit or post material through our Services, contact us via third-party platforms, request customer assistance, or otherwise communicate with us, you provide us with information directly. We may collect your name, display name, username, bio, email address, company information, your published content, including your avatar image, photos, posts, responses, and any other information you voluntarily give.
In certain instances, we may collect the information you submit about third parties. We will use your information to fulfill your request and will not send emails to your contacts unrelated to your request unless they separately opt to receive such communications or connect with us in some other way.
We do not collect payment details via the Services.
Automatically Collected Information When You Communicate with Us
In certain cases, we automatically collect the following information:
We gather data regarding your behavior on our Services, such as your reading history and when you share links, follow users, highlight posts, and like posts.
Device and Usage Information: We gather information about the device and network you use to access our Services, such as your hardware model, operating system version, mobile network, IP address, unique device identifiers, browser type, and app version. We also collect information regarding your activities on our Services, including access times, pages viewed, links clicked, and the page you visited immediately prior to accessing our Services.
Information Obtained Through Cookies and Comparable Tracking Technologies: We collect information about you through tracking technologies including cookies and web beacons. Cookies are little data files kept on your computer's hard disk or device's memory that assist us in enhancing our Services and your experience, determining which areas and features of our Services are the most popular, and tracking the number of visitors. Web beacons (also known as "pixel tags" or "clear GIFs") are electronic pictures that we employ on our Services and in our communications to assist with cookie delivery, session tracking, and usage analysis. We also partner with third-party analytics providers who use cookies, web beacons, device identifiers, and other technologies to collect information regarding your use of our Services and other websites and applications, including your IP address, web browser, mobile network information, pages viewed, time spent on pages or in mobile apps, and links clicked. INTΞGRITY and others may use your information to, among other things, analyze and track data, evaluate the popularity of certain content, present content tailored to your interests on our Services, and better comprehend your online activities. See Your Options for additional information on cookies and how to disable them.
Information Obtained from Outside Sources
We acquire information from external sources. We may collect information about you, for instance, through social networks, accounting service providers, and data analytics service providers. In addition, if you create or log into your INTΞGRITY account via a third-party platform (such as Apple, Facebook, Google, or Twitter), we will have access to certain information from that platform, including your name, lists of friends or followers, birthday, and profile picture, in accordance with the authorization procedures determined by that platform.
We may derive information about you or make assumptions based on the data we gather. We may deduce your location based on your IP address or your reading interests based on your reading history, for instance.
USAGE OF INFORMATION
We use the information we collect to deliver, maintain, and enhance our Services, including publishing and distributing user-generated content, and customizing the posts you see. Additionally, we utilize collected information to: create and administer your INTΞGRITY account;
Send transaction-related information, including confirmations, receipts, and user satisfaction surveys;
Send you technical notices, security alerts, and administrative and support messages;
Respond to your comments and queries and offer support;
Communicate with you about new INTΞGRITY content, goods, services, and features, as well as other news and information that we believe may be of interest to you (see Your Choices for details on how to opt out of these communications at any time);
Monitor and evaluate usage, trends, and activities associated with our Services;
Detect, investigate, and prevent security incidents and other harmful, misleading, fraudulent, or illegal conduct, and safeguard INTΞGRITY’s and others' rights and property;
Comply with our legal and financial requirements; and Carry out any other purpose specified to you at the time the information was obtained.
SHARING OF INFORMATION
We share personal information where required by law or as otherwise specified in this policy:
Personal information is shared with other Service users. If you use our Services to publish content, make comments, or send private messages, for instance, certain information about you, such as your name, photo, bio, and other account information you may supply, as well as information about your activity on our Services, will be available to others (e.g., your followers and who you follow, recent posts, likes, highlights, and responses).
We share personal information with vendors, service providers, and consultants who require access to such information to perform services on our behalf, such as companies that assist us with web hosting, storage, and other infrastructure, analytics, fraud prevention, and security, customer service, communications, and marketing.
We may release personally identifiable information if we think that doing so is in line with or required by any relevant law or legal process, including authorized demands from public authorities to meet national security or law enforcement obligations. If we intend to disclose your personal information in response to a court order, we will provide you with prior notice so that you may contest the disclosure (for example, by seeking court intervention), unless we are prohibited by law or believe that doing so could endanger others or lead to illegal conduct. We shall object to inappropriate legal requests for information regarding users of our Services.
If we believe your actions are inconsistent with our user agreements or policies, if we suspect you have violated the law, or if we believe it is necessary to defend the rights, property, and safety of INTΞGRITY, our users, the public, or others, we may disclose your personal information.
We share personal information with our attorneys and other professional advisers when necessary for obtaining counsel or otherwise protecting and managing our business interests.
We may disclose personal information in conjunction with or during talks for any merger, sale of corporate assets, financing, or purchase of all or part of our business by another firm.
Personal information is transferred between and among INTΞGRITY, its current and future parents, affiliates, subsidiaries, and other companies under common ownership and management.
We will only share your personal information with your permission or at your instruction.
We also disclose aggregated or anonymized data that cannot be used to identify you.
IMPLEMENTATIONS FROM THIRD PARTIES
Some of the content shown on our Services is not hosted by INTΞGRITY. Users are able to publish content hosted by a third party but embedded in our pages ("Embed"). When you interact with an Embed, it can send information to the hosting third party just as if you had visited the hosting third party's website directly. When you load an INTΞGRITY post page with a YouTube video Embed and view the video, for instance, YouTube collects information about your behavior, such as your IP address and how much of the video you watch. INTΞGRITY has no control over the information that third parties acquire via Embeds or what they do with it. This Privacy Statement does not apply to data gathered via Embeds. Before interacting with the Embed, it is recommended that you review the privacy policy of the third party hosting the Embed, which governs any information the Embed gathers.
INFORMATION TRANSFER TO THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER NATIONS
INTΞGRITY’s headquarters are located in the United States, and we have operations and service suppliers in other nations. Therefore, we and our service providers may transmit, store, or access your personal information in jurisdictions that may not provide a similar degree of data protection to your home jurisdiction. For instance, we transfer personal data to Amazon Web Services, one of our service providers that processes personal information on our behalf in numerous data centers throughout the world, including those indicated above. We shall take measures to guarantee that your personal information is adequately protected in the jurisdictions where it is processed.
YOUR SETTINGS
Account Specifics
You can access, modify, delete, and export your account information at any time by login into the Services and visiting the Settings page. Please be aware that if you delete your account, we may preserve certain information on you as needed by law or for our legitimate business purposes.
Cookies
The majority of web browsers accept cookies by default. You can often configure your browser to delete or refuse cookies if you wish. Please be aware that removing or rejecting cookies may impact the accessibility and performance of our services.
Communications
You may opt out of getting certain messages from us, such as digests, newsletters, and activity notifications, by following the instructions contained within those communications or by visiting the Settings page of your account. Even if you opt out, we may still send you emails regarding your account or our ongoing business relationships.
Mobile Push Notifications
We may send push notifications to your mobile device with your permission. You can cancel these messages at any time by modifying your mobile device's notification settings.
YOUR CALIFORNIA PRIVACY RIGHTS
The California Consumer Privacy Act, or "CCPA" (Cal. Civ. Code 1798.100 et seq. ), grants California residents some rights regarding their personal data. If you are a California resident, you are subject to this clause.
We have collected the following categories of personal information over the past year: identifiers, commercial information, internet or other electronic network activity information, and conclusions. Please refer to the section titled "Collection of Information" for specifics regarding the data points we gather and the sorts of sources from which we acquire them. We collect personal information for the business and marketing purposes outlined in the section on Use of Information. In the past 12 months, we have shared the following types of personal information to the following groups of recipients for business purposes:
Category of Personal Information: Identifiers
Categories of Recipients: Analytics Providers, Communication Providers, Custom Service Providers, Fraud Prevention and Security Providers, Infrastructure Providers, Marketing Providers, Payment Processors
Category of Personal Information: Commercial Information
Categories of Recipients: Analytics Providers, Infrastructure Providers, Payment Processors
Category of Personal Information: Internet or Other Electronic Network Activity Information
Categories of Recipients: Analytics Providers, Infrastructure Providers
Category of Personal Information: Inferences
Categories of Recipients: Analytics Providers, Infrastructure Providers
INTΞGRITY does not sell personally identifiable information.
You have the right, subject to certain limitations: (1) to request more information about the categories and specific pieces of personal information we collect, use, and disclose about you; (2) to request the deletion of your personal information; (3) to opt out of any future sales of your personal information; and (4) to not be discriminated against for exercising these rights. You may submit these requests by email to hello@int3grity.com. We shall not treat you differently if you exercise your rights under the CCPA.
If we receive your request from an authorized agent, we may request proof that you have granted the agent a valid power of attorney or that the agent otherwise possesses valid written authorization to submit requests on your behalf. This may involve requiring identity verification. Please contact us if you are an authorized agent wishing to make a request.
ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES FOR INDIVIDUALS IN EUROPE
This section applies to you if you are based in the European Economic Area ("EEA"), the United Kingdom, or Switzerland and have specific rights and safeguards regarding the processing of your personal data under relevant law.
Legal Justification for Processing
We will process your personal information based on the following legal grounds:
To fulfill our obligations under our agreement with you (e.g., providing the products and services you requested).
When we have a legitimate interest in processing your personal information to operate our business or to safeguard our legitimate interests, we will do so (e.g., to provide, maintain, and improve our products and services, conduct data analytics, and communicate with you).
To meet our legal responsibilities (e.g., to maintain a record of your consents and track those who have opted out of non-administrative communications).
If we have your permission to do so (e.g., when you opt in to receive non-administrative communications from us). When consent is the legal basis for our processing of your personal information, you may at any time withdraw your consent.
Data Retention
We retain the personal information associated with your account so long as your account is active. If you close your account, your account information will be deleted within 14 days. We retain other personal data for as long as is required to fulfill the objectives for which it was obtained and for other legitimate business purposes, such as to meet our legal, regulatory, or other compliance responsibilities.
Data Access Requests
You have the right to request access to the personal data we hold on you and to get your data in a portable format, to request that your personal data be rectified or erased, and to object to or request that we restrict particular processing, subject to certain limitations. To assert your legal rights:
If you sign up for an INTΞGRITY account, you can request an export of your personal information at any time via the Settings website, or by visiting Settings and selecting Account from inside our app.
You can edit the information linked with your account on the Settings website, or by navigating to Settings and then Account in our app, and the Customize Your Interests page.
You may withdraw consent at any time by deleting your account via the Settings page, or by visiting Settings and then selecting Account within our app (except to the extent INTΞGRITY is prevented by law from deleting your information).
You may object to the use of your personal information at any time by contacting hello@int3grity.com.
Questions or Complaints
If we are unable to settle your concern over our processing of personal data, you have the right to file a complaint with the Data Protection Authority in your country. The links below provide access to the contact information for your Data Protection Authority.
For people in the EEA, please visit https://edpb.europa.eu/about-edpb/board/members en.
For persons in the United Kingdom, please visit https://ico.org.uk/global/contact-us.
For people in Switzerland: https://www.edoeb.admin.ch/edoeb/en/home/the-fdpic/contact.html
CONTACT US
Please contact us at hello@int3grity.com if you have any queries regarding this Privacy Statement.
Percy Bolmér
3 years ago
Ethereum No Longer Consumes A Medium-Sized Country's Electricity To Run
The Merge cut Ethereum's energy use by 99.5%.
The Crypto community celebrated on September 15, 2022. This day, Ethereum Merged. The entire blockchain successfully merged with the Beacon chain, and it was so smooth you barely noticed.
Many have waited, dreaded, and longed for this day.
Some investors feared the network would break down, while others envisioned a seamless merging.
Speculators predict a successful Merge will lead investors to Ethereum. This could boost Ethereum's popularity.
What Has Changed Since The Merge
The merging transitions Ethereum mainnet from PoW to PoS.
PoW sends a mathematical riddle to computers worldwide (miners). First miner to solve puzzle updates blockchain and is rewarded.
The puzzles sent are power-intensive to solve, so mining requires a lot of electricity. It's sent to every miner competing to solve it, requiring duplicate computation.
PoS allows investors to stake their coins to validate a new transaction. Instead of validating a whole block, you validate a transaction and get the fees.
You can validate instead of mine. A validator stakes 32 Ethereum. After staking, the validator can validate future blocks.
Once a validator validates a block, it's sent to a randomly selected group of other validators. This group verifies that a validator is not malicious and doesn't validate fake blocks.
This way, only one computer needs to solve or validate the transaction, instead of all miners. The validated block must be approved by a small group of validators, causing duplicate computation.
PoS is more secure because validating fake blocks results in slashing. You lose your bet tokens. If a validator signs a bad block or double-signs conflicting blocks, their ETH is burned.
Theoretically, Ethereum has one block every 12 seconds, so a validator forging a block risks burning 1 Ethereum for 12 seconds of transactions. This makes mistakes expensive and risky.
What Impact Does This Have On Energy Use?
Cryptocurrency is a natural calamity, sucking electricity and eating away at the earth one transaction at a time.
Many don't know the environmental impact of cryptocurrencies, yet it's tremendous.
A single Ethereum transaction used to use 200 kWh and leave a large carbon imprint. This update reduces global energy use by 0.2%.
Ethereum will submit a challenge to one validator, and that validator will forward it to randomly selected other validators who accept it.
This reduces the needed computing power.
They expect a 99.5% reduction, therefore a single transaction should cost 1 kWh.
Carbon footprint is 0.58 kgCO2, or 1,235 VISA transactions.
This is a big Ethereum blockchain update.
I love cryptocurrency and Mother Earth.
Vitalik
3 years ago
Fairness alternatives to selling below market clearing prices (or community sentiment, or fun)
When a seller has a limited supply of an item in high (or uncertain and possibly high) demand, they frequently set a price far below what "the market will bear." As a result, the item sells out quickly, with lucky buyers being those who tried to buy first. This has happened in the Ethereum ecosystem, particularly with NFT sales and token sales/ICOs. But this phenomenon is much older; concerts and restaurants frequently make similar choices, resulting in fast sell-outs or long lines.
Why do sellers do this? Economists have long wondered. A seller should sell at the market-clearing price if the amount buyers are willing to buy exactly equals the amount the seller has to sell. If the seller is unsure of the market-clearing price, they should sell at auction and let the market decide. So, if you want to sell something below market value, don't do it. It will hurt your sales and it will hurt your customers. The competitions created by non-price-based allocation mechanisms can sometimes have negative externalities that harm third parties, as we will see.
However, the prevalence of below-market-clearing pricing suggests that sellers do it for good reason. And indeed, as decades of research into this topic has shown, there often are. So, is it possible to achieve the same goals with less unfairness, inefficiency, and harm?
Selling at below market-clearing prices has large inefficiencies and negative externalities
An item that is sold at market value or at an auction allows someone who really wants it to pay the high price or bid high in the auction. So, if a seller sells an item below market value, some people will get it and others won't. But the mechanism deciding who gets the item isn't random, and it's not always well correlated with participant desire. It's not always about being the fastest at clicking buttons. Sometimes it means waking up at 2 a.m. (but 11 p.m. or even 2 p.m. elsewhere). Sometimes it's just a "auction by other means" that's more chaotic, less efficient, and has far more negative externalities.
There are many examples of this in the Ethereum ecosystem. Let's start with the 2017 ICO craze. For example, an ICO project would set the price of the token and a hard maximum for how many tokens they are willing to sell, and the sale would start automatically at some point in time. The sale ends when the cap is reached.
So what? In practice, these sales often ended in 30 seconds or less. Everyone would start sending transactions in as soon as (or just before) the sale started, offering higher and higher fees to encourage miners to include their transaction first. Instead of the token seller receiving revenue, miners receive it, and the sale prices out all other applications on-chain.
The most expensive transaction in the BAT sale set a fee of 580,000 gwei, paying a fee of $6,600 to get included in the sale.
Many ICOs after that tried various strategies to avoid these gas price auctions; one ICO notably had a smart contract that checked the transaction's gasprice and rejected it if it exceeded 50 gwei. But that didn't solve the issue. Buyers hoping to game the system sent many transactions hoping one would get through. An auction by another name, clogging the chain even more.
ICOs have recently lost popularity, but NFTs and NFT sales have risen in popularity. But the NFT space didn't learn from 2017; they do fixed-quantity sales just like ICOs (eg. see the mint function on lines 97-108 of this contract here). So what?
That's not the worst; some NFT sales have caused gas price spikes of up to 2000 gwei.
High gas prices from users fighting to get in first by sending higher and higher transaction fees. An auction renamed, pricing out all other applications on-chain for 15 minutes.
So why do sellers sometimes sell below market price?
Selling below market value is nothing new, and many articles, papers, and podcasts have written (and sometimes bitterly complained) about the unwillingness to use auctions or set prices to market-clearing levels.
Many of the arguments are the same for both blockchain (NFTs and ICOs) and non-blockchain examples (popular restaurants and concerts). Fairness and the desire not to exclude the poor, lose fans or create tension by being perceived as greedy are major concerns. The 1986 paper by Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler explains how fairness and greed can influence these decisions. I recall that the desire to avoid perceptions of greed was also a major factor in discouraging the use of auction-like mechanisms in 2017.
Aside from fairness concerns, there is the argument that selling out and long lines create a sense of popularity and prestige, making the product more appealing to others. Long lines should have the same effect as high prices in a rational actor model, but this is not the case in reality. This applies to ICOs and NFTs as well as restaurants. Aside from increasing marketing value, some people find the game of grabbing a limited set of opportunities first before everyone else is quite entertaining.
But there are some blockchain-specific factors. One argument for selling ICO tokens below market value (and one that persuaded the OmiseGo team to adopt their capped sale strategy) is community dynamics. The first rule of community sentiment management is to encourage price increases. People are happy if they are "in the green." If the price drops below what the community members paid, they are unhappy and start calling you a scammer, possibly causing a social media cascade where everyone calls you a scammer.
This effect can only be avoided by pricing low enough that post-launch market prices will almost certainly be higher. But how do you do this without creating a rush for the gates that leads to an auction?
Interesting solutions
It's 2021. We have a blockchain. The blockchain is home to a powerful decentralized finance ecosystem, as well as a rapidly expanding set of non-financial tools. The blockchain also allows us to reset social norms. Where decades of economists yelling about "efficiency" failed, blockchains may be able to legitimize new uses of mechanism design. If we could use our more advanced tools to create an approach that more directly solves the problems, with fewer side effects, wouldn't that be better than fiddling with a coarse-grained one-dimensional strategy space of selling at market price versus below market price?
Begin with the goals. We'll try to cover ICOs, NFTs, and conference tickets (really a type of NFT) all at the same time.
1. Fairness: don't completely exclude low-income people from participation; give them a chance. The goal of token sales is to avoid high initial wealth concentration and have a larger and more diverse initial token holder community.
2. Don’t create races: Avoid situations where many people rush to do the same thing and only a few get in (this is the type of situation that leads to the horrible auctions-by-another-name that we saw above).
3. Don't require precise market knowledge: the mechanism should work even if the seller has no idea how much demand exists.
4. Fun: The process of participating in the sale should be fun and game-like, but not frustrating.
5. Give buyers positive expected returns: in the case of a token (or an NFT), buyers should expect price increases rather than decreases. This requires selling below market value.
Let's start with (1). From Ethereum's perspective, there is a simple solution. Use a tool designed for the job: proof of personhood protocols! Here's one quick idea:
Mechanism 1 Each participant (verified by ID) can buy up to ‘’X’’ tokens at price P, with the option to buy more at an auction.
With the per-person mechanism, buyers can get positive expected returns for the portion sold through the per-person mechanism, and the auction part does not require sellers to understand demand levels. Is it race-free? The number of participants buying through the per-person pool appears to be high. But what if the per-person pool isn't big enough to accommodate everyone?
Make the per-person allocation amount dynamic.
Mechanism 2 Each participant can deposit up to X tokens into a smart contract to declare interest. Last but not least, each buyer receives min(X, N / buyers) tokens, where N is the total sold through the per-person pool (some other amount can also be sold by auction). The buyer gets their deposit back if it exceeds the amount needed to buy their allocation.
No longer is there a race condition based on the number of buyers per person. No matter how high the demand, it's always better to join sooner rather than later.
Here's another idea if you like clever game mechanics with fancy quadratic formulas.
Mechanism 3 Each participant can buy X units at a price P X 2 up to a maximum of C tokens per buyer. C starts low and gradually increases until enough units are sold.
The quantity allocated to each buyer is theoretically optimal, though post-sale transfers will degrade this optimality over time. Mechanisms 2 and 3 appear to meet all of the above objectives. They're not perfect, but they're good starting points.
One more issue. For fixed and limited supply NFTs, the equilibrium purchased quantity per participant may be fractional (in mechanism 2, number of buyers > N, and in mechanism 3, setting C = 1 may already lead to over-subscription). With fractional sales, you can offer lottery tickets: if there are N items available, you have a chance of N/number of buyers of getting the item, otherwise you get a refund. For a conference, groups could bundle their lottery tickets to guarantee a win or a loss. The certainty of getting the item can be auctioned.
The bottom tier of "sponsorships" can be used to sell conference tickets at market rate. You may end up with a sponsor board full of people's faces, but is that okay? After all, John Lilic was on EthCC's sponsor board!
Simply put, if you want to be reliably fair to people, you need an input that explicitly measures people. Authentication protocols do this (and if desired can be combined with zero knowledge proofs to ensure privacy). So we should combine the efficiency of market and auction-based pricing with the equality of proof of personhood mechanics.
Answers to possible questions
Q: Won't people who don't care about your project buy the item and immediately resell it?
A: Not at first. Meta-games take time to appear in practice. If they do, making them untradeable for a while may help mitigate the damage. Using your face to claim that your previous account was hacked and that your identity, including everything in it, should be moved to another account works because proof-of-personhood identities are untradeable.
Q: What if I want to make my item available to a specific community?
A: Instead of ID, use proof of participation tokens linked to community events. Another option, also serving egalitarian and gamification purposes, is to encrypt items within publicly available puzzle solutions.
Q: How do we know they'll accept? Strange new mechanisms have previously been resisted.
A: Having economists write screeds about how they "should" accept a new mechanism that they find strange is difficult (or even "equity"). However, abrupt changes in context effectively reset people's expectations. So the blockchain space is the best place to try this. You could wait for the "metaverse", but it's possible that the best version will run on Ethereum anyway, so start now.