Ray Dalio's super-effective roadmap 

Ray Dalio's $22 billion net worth ranks him 36th globally. From 1975 to 2011, he built the world's most successful hedge fund, never losing more than 4% from 1991 to 2020. (and only doing so during 3 calendar years). 

Dalio describes a 5-step process in his best-selling book Principles. It's the playbook he's used to build his hedge fund, beat the markets, and face personal challenges. 

This 5-step system is so valuable and well-explained that I didn't edit or change anything; I only added my own insights in the parts I found most relevant and/or relatable as a young entrepreneur. The system's overview: 

1. Have clear goals 

2. Identify and don’t tolerate problems 

3. Diagnose problems to get at their root causes 

4. Design plans that will get you around those problems 

5. Do what is necessary to push through the plans to get results 

If you follow these 5 steps in a virtuous loop, you'll almost always see results. Repeat the process for each goal you have. 

1. Have clear goals 

a) Prioritize: You can have almost anything, but not everything. 

I started and never launched dozens of projects for 10 years because I was scattered. I opened a t-shirt store, traded algorithms, sold art on Instagram, painted skateboards, and tinkered with electronics. I decided to try blogging for 6 months to see where it took me. Still going after 3 years. 

b) Don’t confuse goals with desires. 

A goal inspires you to act. Unreasonable desires prevent you from achieving your goals. 

c) Reconcile your goals and desires to decide what you want. 

d) Don't confuse success with its trappings. 

e) Never dismiss a goal as unattainable. 

Always one path is best. Your perception of what's possible depends on what you know now. I never thought I'd make money writing online so quickly, and now I see a whole new horizon of business opportunities I didn't know about before. 

f) Expectations create abilities. 

Don't limit your abilities. More you strive, the more you'll achieve. 

g) Flexibility and self-accountability can almost guarantee success. 

Flexible people accept what reality or others teach them. Self-accountability is the ability to recognize your mistakes and be more creative, flexible, and determined. 

h) Handling setbacks well is as important as moving forward. 

Learn when to minimize losses and when to let go and move on. 

2. Don't ignore problems 

a) See painful problems as improvement opportunities. 

Every problem, painful situation, and challenge is an opportunity. Read The Art of Happiness for more. 

b) Don't avoid problems because of harsh realities. 

Recognizing your weaknesses isn't the same as giving in. It's the first step in overcoming them. 

c) Specify your issues. 

There is no "one-size-fits-all" solution. 

d) Don’t mistake a cause of a problem with the real problem. 

"I can't sleep" is a cause, not a problem. "I'm underperforming" could be a problem. 

e) Separate big from small problems. 

You have limited time and energy, so focus on the biggest problems. 

f) Don't ignore a problem. 

Identifying a problem and tolerating it is like not identifying it. 

3. Identify problems' root causes 

a) Decide "what to do" after assessing "what is." 

"A good diagnosis takes 15 to 60 minutes, depending on its accuracy and complexity. [...] Like principles, root causes recur in different situations. 

b) Separate proximate and root causes. 

"You can only solve problems by removing their root causes, and to do that, you must distinguish symptoms from disease." 

c) Knowing someone's (or your own) personality can help you predict their behavior. 

4. Design plans that will get you around the problems 

a) Retrace your steps. 

Analyze your past to determine your future. 

b) Consider your problem a machine's output. 

Consider how to improve your machine. It's a game then. 

c) There are many ways to reach your goals. 

Find a solution. 

d) Visualize who will do what in your plan like a movie script. 

Consider your movie's actors and script's turning points, then act accordingly. The game continues. 

e) Document your plan so others can judge your progress. 

Accountability boosts success. 

f) Know that a good plan doesn't take much time. 

The execution is usually the hardest part, but most people either don't have a plan or keep changing it. Don't drive while building the car. Build it first, because it'll be bumpy. 

5. Do what is necessary to push through the plans to get results 

a) Great planners without execution fail. 

Life is won with more than just planning. Similarly, practice without talent beats talent without practice. 

b) Work ethic is undervalued. 

Hyper-productivity is praised in corporate America, even if it leads nowhere. To get things done, use checklists, fewer emails, and more desk time. 

c) Set clear metrics to ensure plan adherence. 

I've written about the OKR strategy for organizations with multiple people here. If you're on your own, I recommend the Wheel of Life approach. Both systems start with goals and tasks to achieve them. Then start executing on a realistic timeline. 

If you find solutions, weaknesses don't matter. 

Everyone's weak. You, me, Gates, Dalio, even Musk. Nobody will be great at all 5 steps of the system because no one can think in all the ways required. Some are good at analyzing and diagnosing but bad at executing. Some are good planners but poor communicators. Others lack self-discipline. 

Stay humble and ask for help when needed. Nobody has ever succeeded 100% on their own, without anyone else's help. That's the paradox of individual success: teamwork is the only way to get there. 

Most people won't have the skills to execute even the best plan. You can get missing skills in two ways: 

1. Self-taught (time-consuming) 

2. Others' (requires humility) light

On knowing what to do with your life 

“Some people have good mental maps and know what to do on their own. Maybe they learned them or were blessed with common sense. They have more answers than others. Others are more humble and open-minded. […] Open-mindedness and mental maps are most powerful.” — Ray Dalio 

I've always known what I wanted to do, so I'm lucky. I'm almost 30 and have always had trouble executing. Good thing I never stopped experimenting, but I never committed to anything long-term. I jumped between projects. I decided 3 years ago to stick to one project for at least 6 months and haven't looked back. 

Maybe you're good at staying focused and executing, but you don't know what to do. Maybe you have none of these because you haven't found your purpose. Always try new projects and talk to as many people as possible. It will give you inspiration and ideas and set you up for success. 

There is almost always a way to achieve a crazy goal or idea. 

Enjoy the journey, whichever path you take.

Ready to quit full-time? No worries.

Baby Boomer retirement has accelerated since COVID-19 began. In 2020, 29 million boomers retire. Over 3 million more than in 2019. 75 million Baby Boomers will retire by 2030.

First, quit your work to enjoy retirement. Leave a professional legacy. Your retirement will start well. It all starts with a retirement letter.

Retirement Letter

Retirement letters are formal resignation letters. Different from other resignation letters, these don't tell your employer you're leaving. Instead, you're quitting.

Since you're not departing over grievances or for a better position or higher income, you may usually terminate the relationship amicably. Consulting opportunities are possible.

Thank your employer for their support and give them transition information.

Resignation letters aren't merely a formality. This method handles wages, insurance, and retirement benefits.

Retirement letters often accompany verbal notices to managers. Schedule a meeting before submitting your retirement letter to discuss your plans. The letter will be stored alongside your start date, salary, and benefits in your employee file.

Retirement is typically well-planned. Employers want 6-12 months' notice.

Summary

• Guidelines for Giving Retirement Notice

• Components of a Successful Retirement Letter

• Template for Retirement Letter

• Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters

• First Example of Retirement Letter

• Second Example of Retirement Letter

• Third Example of Retirement Letter

• Fourth Example of Retirement Letter

• Fifth Example of Retirement Letter

• Sixth Example of Retirement Letter

• Seventh Example of Retirement Letter

• Eighth Example of Retirement Letter

• Ninth Example of Retirement Letter

• Tenth Example of Retirement Letter

• Frequently Asked Questions

• 1. What is a letter of retirement?

• 2. Why should you include a letter of retirement?

• 3. What information ought to be in your retirement letter?

• 4. Must I provide notice?

• 5. What is the ideal retirement age?

Guidelines for Giving Retirement Notice

While starting a new phase, you're also leaving a job you were qualified for. You have years of experience. So, it may not be easy to fill a retirement-related vacancy.

Talk to your boss in person before sending a letter. Notice is always appreciated. Properly announcing your retirement helps you and your organization transition.

How to announce retirement:

• Learn about the retirement perks and policies offered by the company. The first step in figuring out whether you're eligible for retirement benefits is to research your company's retirement policy.

• Don't depart without providing adequate notice. You should give the business plenty of time to replace you if you want to retire in a few months.

• Help the transition by offering aid. You could be a useful resource if your replacement needs training.

• Contact the appropriate parties. The original copy should go to your boss. Give a copy to HR because they will manage your 401(k), pension, and health insurance.

• Investigate the option of working as a consultant or part-time. If you desire, you can continue doing some limited work for the business.

• Be nice to others. Describe your achievements and appreciation. Additionally, express your gratitude for giving you the chance to work with such excellent coworkers.

• Make a plan for your future move. Simply updating your employer on your goals will help you maintain a good working relationship.

• Use a formal letter or email to formalize your plans. The initial step is to speak with your supervisor and HR in person, but you must also give written notice.

Components of a Successful Retirement Letter

To write a good retirement letter, keep in mind the following:

• A formal salutation. Here, the voice should be deliberate, succinct, and authoritative.

• Be specific about your intentions. The key idea of your retirement letter is resignation. Your decision to depart at this time should be reflected in your letter. Remember that your intention must be clear-cut.

• Your deadline. This information must be in resignation letters. Laws and corporate policies may both stipulate a minimum amount of notice.

• A kind voice. Your retirement letter shouldn't contain any resentments, insults, or other unpleasantness. Your letter should be a model of professionalism and grace. A straightforward thank you is a terrific approach to accomplish that.

• Your ultimate goal. Chaos may start to happen as soon as you turn in your resignation letter. Your position will need to be filled. Additionally, you will have to perform your obligations up until a successor is found. Your availability during the interim period should be stated in your resignation letter.

• Give us a way to reach you. Even if you aren't consulting, your company will probably get in touch with you at some point. They might send you tax documents and details on perks. By giving your contact information, you can make this process easier.

Template for Retirement Letter

Identify

Title you held

Address

Supervisor's name

Supervisor’s position

Company name

HQ address

Date

[SUPERVISOR],

1.

Inform that you're retiring. Include your last day worked.

2.

Employer thanks. Mention what you're thankful for. Describe your accomplishments and successes.

3.

Helping moves things ahead. Plan your retirement. Mention your consultancy interest.

Sincerely,

[Signature]

First and last name

Phone number

Personal Email

Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters

First Example of Retirement Letter

Martin D. Carey

123 Fleming St

Bloomfield, New Jersey 07003

(555) 555-1234

June 6th, 2022

Willie E. Coyote

President

Acme Co

321 Anvil Ave

Fairfield, New Jersey 07004

Dear Mr. Coyote,

This letter notifies Acme Co. of my retirement on August 31, 2022.

There has been no other organization that has given me that sense of belonging and purpose.

My fifteen years at the helm of the Structural Design Division have given me‌ ‌a‌ ‌strong sense‌ ‌of‌ ‌purpose. I’ve been fortunate to have your support, and I’ll be always grateful for the opportunity you offered me.

I had a difficult time making this decision. ‌As a result of finding a small property in Arizona where we will be able to spend our remaining days together, my wife and I have decided to officially retire.

In spite of my regret at being unable to contribute to the firm we’ve built, I believe it is wise to move on.

My heart will always belong to Acme Co. ‌Thank you for the opportunity and best of luck in the years to come.

Sincerely,

Martin D. Carey

Second Example of Retirement Letter

Gustavo Fring

Los Pollas Hermanos

12000–12100 Coors Rd SW,

Albuquerque, New Mexico 87045

Dear Mr. Fring,

I write this letter to announce my formal retirement from Los Pollas Hermanos as manager, effective October 15.

As an employee at Los Pollas Hermanos, I appreciate all the great opportunities you have given me. ‌It has been a pleasure to work with and learn from my colleagues for the past 10 years, and I am looking forward to my next challenge.

If there is anything I can do to assist during this time, please let me know.

Sincerely,

Linda T. Crespo

Third Example of Retirement Letter

William M. Arviso

4387 Parkview Drive

Tustin, CA 92680

May 2, 2023

Tony Stark

Owner

Stark Industries

200 Industrial Avenue

Long Beach, CA 90803

Dear Tony:

I’m writing to inform you that my final day of work at Stark Industries will be May14, 2023. ‌When that time comes, I intend‌ ‌to‌ ‌retire.

As I embark on this new chapter in my life, I would like to thank you and the entire Stark Industries team for providing me with so many opportunities. ‌You have all been a pleasure to work with and I will miss you all when I retire.

I am glad to assist you with the transition in any way I can to ensure your new hire has a seamless experience. ‌All ongoing projects will be completed until my retirement date, and all key information will be handed over‌ ‌to‌ ‌the‌ ‌team.

Once again, thank you for the opportunity to be part of the Stark Industries team. ‌All the best to you and the team in the days to come.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if you require any additional information. ‌In order to finalize my retirement plans, I’ll meet with HR and can provide any details that may be necessary.

Sincerely,

(Signature)

William M. Arviso

Fourth Example of Retirement Letter

Garcia, Barbara

First Street, 5432

New York City, NY 10001

(1234) (555) 123–1234

1 October 2022

Gunther

Owner

Central Perk

199 Lafayette St.

New York City, NY 10001

Mr. Gunther,

The day has finally arrived. ‌As I never imagined, I will be formally retiring from Central Perk on November 1st, 2022.

Considering how satisfied I am with my current position, this may surprise you. ‌It would be best if I retired now since my health has deteriorated, so I think this is a good time to do so.

There is no doubt that the past‌ ‌two‌ ‌decades‌ ‌have‌ ‌been‌ ‌wonderful. ‌Over the years, I have seen a small coffee shop grow into one of the city’s top‌ ‌destinations.

It will be hard for me to leave this firm without wondering what more success we could have achieved. But I’m confident that you and the rest of the Central Perk team will achieve great things.

My family and I will never forget what you’ve done for us, and I am grateful for the chance you’ve given me. My house is always open to you.

Sincerely Yours

Garcia, Barbara

Fifth Example of Retirement Letter

Pat Williams

618 Spooky Place

Monstropolis, 23221

123–555–0031

pwilliams@email.com

Feb. 16, 2022

Mike Wazowski

Co-CEO

Monters, Inc.

324 Scare Road

Monstropolis

Dear Mr. Wazowski,

As a formal notice of my upcoming retirement, I am submitting this letter. ‌I will be leaving Monters, Inc. on‌ ‌April‌ ‌13.

These past 10 years as a marketing associate have provided me with many opportunities. ‌Since we started our company a decade ago, we have seen the face of harnessing screams change dramatically into harnessing laughter. ‌During my time working with this dynamic marketing team, I learned a lot about customer behavior and marketing strategies. ‌Working closely with some of our long-standing clients, such as Boo, was a particular pleasure.

I would be happy to‌ ‌assist‌ ‌with‌ ‌the‌ ‌transition‌ ‌following‌ ‌my‌ ‌retirement. ‌It would be my pleasure to assist in the hiring or training of‌ ‌my‌ ‌replacement. ‌In order to spend more time with my family, I will also be able to offer part-time consulting services.

After I retire, I plan to cash out the eight unused vacation days I’ve accumulated and take my pension as a lump sum.

Thank you for the opportunity to work with Monters, Inc. ‌In the years to come, I wish you all the best!

Sincerely,

Paul Williams

Sixth Example of Retirement Letter

Dear Micheal,

As In my tenure at Dunder Mifflin Paper Company, I have given everything I had. It has been an honor to work here. But‌ ‌I‌ ‌have‌ ‌decided‌ ‌to‌ ‌move on to new challenges and retire from my position — mainly bears, beets, and Battlestar Galactia.

I appreciate the opportunity to work here and learn so much. During my time at this company, I will always remember the good times and memories we shared. Wishing you all the best in the future.

Sincerely,

Dwight K. Shrute

Your signature

May 16

Seventh Example of Retirement Letter

Greetings, Bill

I am announcing my retirement from Initech, effective March 15, 2023.

Over the course of my career here, I’ve had the privilege of working with so many talented and inspiring people.

In 1999, when I began working as a customer service representative, we were a small organization located in a remote office park.

The fact that we now occupy a floor of the Main Street office building with over 150 employees continues to amaze me.

I am looking forward to spending more time with family and traveling the country in our RV. Although I will be sad to leave.

Please let me know if there are any extra steps I can take to facilitate this transfer.

Sincerely,

Frankin, RenitaEighth Example of Retirement Letter

Height Example of Retirement Letter

Bruce,

Please accept my resignation from Wayne Enterprises as Marketing Communications Director. My last day will be August 1, 2022.

The decision to retire has been made after much deliberation. Now that I have worked in the field for forty years, I believe it is a good time to begin completing my bucket list.

It was not easy for me to decide to leave the company. Having worked at Wayne Enterprises has been rewarding both professionally and personally. There are still a lot of memories associated with my first day as a college intern.

My intention was not to remain with such an innovative company, as you know. I was able to see the big picture with your help, however. Today, we are a force that is recognized both nationally and internationally.

In addition to your guidance, the bold, visionary leadership of our company contributed to the growth of our company.

My departure from the company coincides with a particularly hectic time. Despite my best efforts, I am unable to postpone my exit.

My position would be well served by an internal solution. I have a more than qualified marketing manager in Caroline Crown. It would be a pleasure to speak with you about this.

In case I can be of assistance during the switchover, please let me know. Contact us at (555)555–5555. As part of my responsibilities, I am responsible for making sure all work is completed to Wayne Enterprise’s stringent requirements. Having the opportunity to work with you has been a pleasure. I wish you continued success with your thriving business.

Sincerely,

Cash, Cole

Marketing/Communications

Ninth Example of Retirement Letter

Norman, Jamie

2366 Hanover Street

Whitestone, NY 11357

555–555–5555

jamie.norman@email.com

15 October 2022

Mr. Lippman

Head of Pendant Publishing

600 Madison Ave.

New York, New York

Respected Mr. Lippman,

Please accept my resignation effective‌ ‌November‌ ‌1,‌ ‌2022.

Over the course of my ten years at Pendant Publishing, I’ve had a great deal of fun and I’m quite grateful for all the assistance I’ve received.

It was a pleasure to wake up and go to work every day because of our outstanding corporate culture and the opportunities for promotion and professional advancement available to me.

While‌ ‌I am excited about retiring, I am going to miss being part of our team. ‌It’s my hope that I’ll be able to maintain the friendships I’ve formed here for a long time to come.

In case I can be of assistance prior to or following my departure, please let me know. ‌If I can assist in any way to ensure a smooth transfer to my successor, I would be delighted to do so.

Sincerely,

Signed (hard copy letter)

Norman, Jamie

Tenth Example of Retirement Letter

17 January 2023

Greg S. Jackson

Cyberdyne Systems

18144 El Camino Real,

Sunnyvale, CA

Respected Mrs. Duncan,

I‌ ‌am‌ ‌writing‌ ‌to‌ ‌inform you that I will be resigning from Cyberdyne Systems as of March 1, 2023. I’m grateful to have had this opportunity, and it was a difficult decision to make.

My development as a programmer and as a more seasoned member of the organization has been greatly assisted by your coaching.

I have been proud of Cyberdyne Systems’ ethics and success throughout my 25 years at the company. Starting as a mailroom clerk and currently serving as head programmer.

The portfolios of our clients have always been handled with the greatest care by my colleagues. It is our employees and services that have made Cyberdyne Systems the success it is today.

During my tenure as head of my division, I’ve increased our overall productivity by 800 percent, and I expect that trend to continue after‌ ‌I‌ ‌retire.

In light of the fact that the process of replacing me may take some time, I would like to offer my assistance in any way I can.

The greatest contender for this job is Troy Ledford, my current assistant.

Also, before I leave, I would be willing to teach any partners how to use the programmer I developed to track and manage the development of Skynet.

Over the next few months, I’ll be enjoying vacations with my wife as well as my granddaughter moving‌ ‌to‌ ‌college.

If Cyberdyne Systems has any openings for consultants, please let me know. ‌It has been a pleasure working with you over the last 25 years. I appreciate your concern and care.

Sincerely,

Greg S, Jackson

Questions and Answers

1. What is a letter of retirement?

Retirement letters tell your supervisor you're retiring. This informs your employer that you're departing, like a letter. A resignation letter also requests retirement benefits.

Supervisors frequently receive retirement letters and verbal resignations. Before submitting your retirement letter, meet to discuss your plans. This letter will be filed with your start date, salary, and benefits.

2. Why should you include a letter of retirement?

Your retirement letter should explain why you're leaving. When you quit, your manager and HR department usually know. Regardless, a retirement letter might help you leave on a positive tone. It ensures they have the necessary papers.

In your retirement letter, you tell the firm your plans so they can find your replacement. You may need to stay in touch with your company after sending your retirement letter until a successor is identified.

3. What information ought to be in your retirement letter?

Format it like an official letter. Include your retirement plans and retirement-specific statistics. Date may be most essential.

In some circumstances, benefits depend on when you resign and retire. A date on the letter helps HR or senior management verify when you gave notice and how long.

In addition to your usual salutation, address your letter to your manager or supervisor.

The letter's body should include your retirement date and transition arrangements. Tell them whether you plan to help with the transition or train a new employee. You may have a three-month time limit.

Tell your employer your job title, how long you've worked there, and your biggest successes. Personalize your letter by expressing gratitude for your career and outlining your retirement intentions. Finally, include your contact info.

4. Must I provide notice?

Two-week notice isn't required. Your company may require it. Some state laws contain exceptions.

Check your contract, company handbook, or HR to determine your retirement notice. Resigning may change the policy.

Regardless of your company's policy, notification is standard. Entry-level or junior jobs can be let go so the corporation can replace them.

Middle managers, high-level personnel, and specialists may take months to replace. Two weeks' notice is a courtesy. Start planning months ahead.

You can finish all jobs at that period. Prepare transition documents for coworkers and your replacement.

5. What is the ideal retirement age?

Depends on finances, state, and retirement plan. The average American retires at 62. The average retirement age is 66, according to Gallup's 2021 Economy and Personal Finance Survey.

Remember:

• Before the age of 59 1/2, withdrawals from pre-tax retirement accounts, such as 401(k)s and IRAs, are subject to a penalty.

• Benefits from Social Security can be accessed as early as age 62.

• Medicare isn't available to you till you're 65,

• Depending on the year of your birth, your Full Retirement Age (FRA) will be between 66 and 67 years old.

• If you haven't taken them already, your Social Security benefits increase by 8% annually between ages 6 and 77.

Building A Second Brain helps us remember connections, ideas, inspirations, and insights. Using contemporary technologies and networks increases our intelligence.

This approach makes and preserves concepts. It's a straightforward, practical way to construct a second brain—a remote, centralized digital store for your knowledge and its sources.

How to build ‘The Second Brain’

Have you forgotten any brilliant ideas? What insights have you ignored?

We're pressured to read, listen, and watch informative content. Where did the data go? What happened?

Our brains can store few thoughts at once. Our brains aren't idea banks.

Building a Second Brain helps us remember thoughts, connections, and insights. Using digital technologies and networks expands our minds.

Ten Rules for Creating a Second Brain

1. Creative Stealing

Instead of starting from scratch, integrate other people's ideas with your own.

This way, you won't waste hours starting from scratch and can focus on achieving your goals.

Users of Notion can utilize and customize each other's templates.

2. The Habit of Capture

We must record every idea, concept, or piece of information that catches our attention since our minds are fragile.

When reading a book, listening to a podcast, or engaging in any other topic-related activity, save and use anything that resonates with you.

3. Recycle Your Ideas

Reusing our own ideas across projects might be advantageous since it helps us tie new information to what we already know and avoids us from starting a project with no ideas.

4. Projects Outside of Category

Instead of saving an idea in a folder, group it with documents for a project or activity.

If you want to be more productive, gather suggestions.

5. Burns Slowly

Even if you could finish a job, work, or activity if you focused on it, you shouldn't.

You'll get tired and can't advance many projects. It's easier to divide your routine into daily tasks.

Few hours of daily study is more productive and healthier than entire nights.

6. Begin with a surplus

Instead of starting with a blank sheet when tackling a new subject, utilise previous articles and research.

You may have read or saved related material.

7. Intermediate Packets

A bunch of essay facts.

You can utilize it as a document's section or paragraph for different tasks.

Memorize useful information so you can use it later.

8. You only know what you make

We can see, hear, and read about anything.

What matters is what we do with the information, whether that's summarizing it or writing about it.

9. Make it simpler for yourself in the future.

Create documents or files that your future self can easily understand. Use your own words, mind maps, or explanations.

10. Keep your thoughts flowing.

If you don't employ the knowledge in your second brain, it's useless.

Few people exercise despite knowing its benefits.

Conclusion:

• You may continually move your activities and goals closer to completion by organizing and applying your information in a way that is results-focused.

• Profit from the information economy's explosive growth by turning your specialized knowledge into cash.

• Make up original patterns and linkages between topics.

• You may reduce stress and information overload by appropriately curating and managing your personal information stream.

• Learn how to apply your significant experience and specific knowledge to a new job, business, or profession.

• Without having to adhere to tight, time-consuming constraints, accumulate a body of relevant knowledge and concepts over time.

• Take advantage of all the learning materials that are at your disposal, including podcasts, online courses, webinars, books, and articles.

It’s simply not conceivable, or at least not credible.

One of the most touted selling points of Crypto has always been this grandiose idea of decentralization. Bitcoin first arose in 2009 after the housing crisis and subsequent crash that came with it. It aimed to solve this supposed issue of centralization. Nobody “owns” Bitcoin in theory, so the idea then goes that it won’t be subject to the same downfalls that led to the 2008 crash or similarly speculative events that led to the 2008 disaster. The issue is the banks, not the human nature associated with the greedy individuals running them.

Subsequent blockchains have attempted to fix many of the issues of Bitcoin by increasing capacity, decreasing the costs and processing times associated with Bitcoin, and expanding what can be done with their blockchains. Since nobody owns Bitcoin, it hasn’t really been able to be expanded on. You have people like Vitalk Buterin, however, that actively work on Ethereum though.

The leap from Bitcoin to Ethereum was a massive leap toward centralization, and the trend has only gotten worse. In fact, crypto has since become almost exclusively centralized in recent years.

Decentralization is only good in theory

It’s a good idea. In fact, it’s a wonderful idea. However, like other utopian societies, individuals misjudge human nature and greed. In a perfect world, decentralization would certainly be a wonderful idea because sure, people may function as their own banks, move payments immediately, remain anonymous, and so on. However, underneath this are a couple issues:

• You can already send money instantaneously today.

• They are not decentralized.

• Decentralization is a bad idea.

• Being your own bank is a stupid move.

Let’s break these down. Some are quite simple, but lets have a look.

Sending money right away

One thing with crypto is the idea that you can send payments instantly. This has pretty much been entirely solved in current times. You can transmit significant sums of money instantly for a nominal cost and it’s instantaneously cleared. Venmo was launched in 2009 and has since increased to prominence, and currently is on most people's phones. I can directly send ANY amount of money quickly from my bank to another person's Venmo account.

Comparing that with ETH and Bitcoin, Venmo wins all around. I can send money to someone for free instantly in dollars and the only fee paid is optional depending on when you want it.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are subject to demand. If the blockchains have a lot of people trying to process transactions fee’s go up, and the time that it takes to receive your crypto takes longer. When Ethereum gets bad, people have reported spending several thousand of dollars on just 1 transaction.

These transactions take place via “miners” bundling and confirming transactions, then recording them on the blockchain to confirm that the transaction did indeed happen. They charge fees to do this and are also paid in Bitcoin/ETH. When a transaction is confirmed, it's then sent to the other users wallet. This within itself is subject to lots of controversy because each transaction needs to be confirmed 6 times, this takes massive amounts of power, and most of the power is wasted because this is an adversarial system in which the person that mines the transaction gets paid, and everyone else is out of luck. Also, these could theoretically be subject to a “51% attack” in which anyone with over 51% of the mining hash rate could effectively control all of the transactions, and reverse transactions while keeping the BTC resulting in “double spending”.

There are tons of other issues with this, but essentially it means: They rely on these third parties to confirm the transactions. Without people confirming these transactions, Bitcoin stalls completely, and if anyone becomes too dominant they can effectively control bitcoin.

Not to mention, these transactions are in Bitcoin and ETH, not dollars. So, you need to convert them to dollars still, and that's several more transactions, and likely to take several days anyway as the centralized exchange needs to send you the money by traditional methods.

They are not distributed

That takes me to the following point. This isn’t decentralized, at all. Bitcoin is the closest it gets because Satoshi basically closed it to new upgrades, although its still subject to:

• Whales

• Miners

It’s vital to realize that these are often the same folks. While whales aren’t centralized entities typically, they can considerably effect the price and outcome of Bitcoin. If the largest wallets holding as much as 1 million BTC were to sell, it’d effectively collapse the price perhaps beyond repair. However, Bitcoin can and is pretty much controlled by the miners. Further, Bitcoin is more like an oligarchy than decentralized. It’s been effectively used to make the rich richer, and both the mining and price is impacted by the rich. The overwhelming minority of those actually using it are retail investors. The retail investors are basically never the ones generating money from it either.

As far as ETH and other cryptos go, there is realistically 0 case for them being decentralized. Vitalik could not only kill it but even walking away from it would likely lead to a significant decline. It has tons of issues right now that Vitalik has promised to fix with the eventual Ethereum 2.0., and stepping away from it wouldn’t help.

Most tokens as well are generally tied to some promise of future developments and creators. The same is true for most NFT projects. The reason 99% of crypto and NFT projects fail is because they failed to deliver on various promises or bad dev teams, or poor innovation, or the founders just straight up stole from everyone. I could go more in-depth than this but go find any project and if there is a dev team, company, or person tied to it then it's likely, not decentralized. The success of that project is directly tied to the dev team, and if they wanted to, most hold large wallets and could sell it all off effectively killing the project. Not to mention, any crypto project that doesn’t have a locked contract can 100% be completely rugged and they can run off with all of the money.

Decentralization is undesirable

Even if they were decentralized then it would not be a good thing. The graphic above indicates this is effectively a rich person’s unregulated playground… so it’s exactly like… the very issue it tried to solve?

Not to mention, it’s supposedly meant to prevent things like 2008, but is regularly subjected to 50–90% drawdowns in value? Back when Bitcoin was only known in niche parts of the dark web and illegal markets, it would regularly drop as much as 90% and has a long history of massive drawdowns.

The majority of crypto is blatant scams, and ALL of crypto is a “zero” or “negative” sum game in that it relies on the next person buying for people to make money. This is not a good thing. This has yet to solve any issues around what caused the 2008 crisis. Rather, it seemingly amplified all of the bad parts of it actually. Crypto is the ultimate speculative asset and realistically has no valuation metric. People invest in Apple because it has revenue and cash on hand. People invest in crypto purely for speculation. The lack of regulation or accountability means this is amplified to the most extreme degree where anything goes: Fraud, deception, pump and dumps, scams, etc. This results in a pure speculative madhouse where, unsurprisingly, only the rich win. Not only that but the deck is massively stacked in against the everyday investor because you can’t do a pump and dump without money.

At the heart of all of this is still the same issues: greed and human nature. However, in setting out to solve the issues that allowed 2008 to happen, they made something that literally took all of the bad parts of 2008 and then amplified it. 2008, similarly, was due to greed and human nature but was allowed to happen due to lack of oversite, rich people's excessive leverage over the poor, and excessive speculation. Crypto trades SOLELY on human emotion, has 0 oversite, is pure speculation, and the power dynamic is just as bad or worse.

Why should each individual be their own bank?

This is the last one, and it's short and basic. Why do we want people functioning as their own bank? Everything we do relies on another person. Without the internet, and internet providers there is no crypto. We don’t have people functioning as their own home and car manufacturers or internet service providers. Sure, you might specialize in some of these things, but masquerading as your own bank is a horrible idea.

I am not in the banking industry so I don’t know all the issues with banking. Most people aren’t in banking or crypto, so they don’t know the ENDLESS scams associated with it, and they are bound to lose their money eventually.

If you appreciate this article and want to read more from me and authors like me, without any limits, consider buying me a coffee: buymeacoffee.com/calebnaysmith

Headline inflation is the raw Consumer price index (CPI) reported monthly by the Bureau of labour statistics (BLS). CPI measures inflation by calculating the cost of a fixed basket of goods. The CPI uses a base year to index the current year's prices.

Explaining Inflation

As it includes all aspects of an economy that experience inflation, headline inflation is not adjusted to remove volatile figures. Headline inflation is often linked to cost-of-living changes, which is useful for consumers.

The headline figure doesn't account for seasonality or volatile food and energy prices, which are removed from the core CPI. Headline inflation is usually annualized, so a monthly headline figure of 4% inflation would equal 4% inflation for the year if repeated for 12 months. Top-line inflation is compared year-over-year.

Inflation's downsides

Inflation erodes future dollar values, can stifle economic growth, and can raise interest rates. Core inflation is often considered a better metric than headline inflation. Investors and economists use headline and core results to set growth forecasts and monetary policy.

Core Inflation

Core inflation removes volatile CPI components that can distort the headline number. Food and energy costs are commonly removed. Environmental shifts that affect crop growth can affect food prices outside of the economy. Political dissent can affect energy costs, such as oil production.

From 1957 to 2018, the U.S. averaged 3.64 percent core inflation. In June 1980, the rate reached 13.60%. May 1957 had 0% inflation. The Fed's core inflation target for 2022 is 3%.
 

Central bank:

A central bank has privileged control over a nation's or group's money and credit. Modern central banks are responsible for monetary policy and bank regulation. Central banks are anti-competitive and non-market-based. Many central banks are not government agencies and are therefore considered politically independent. Even if a central bank isn't government-owned, its privileges are protected by law. A central bank's legal monopoly status gives it the right to issue banknotes and cash. Private commercial banks can only issue demand deposits.

What are living costs?

The cost of living is the amount needed to cover housing, food, taxes, and healthcare in a certain place and time. Cost of living is used to compare the cost of living between cities and is tied to wages. If expenses are higher in a city like New York, salaries must be higher so people can live there.

What's U.S. bureau of labor statistics?

BLS collects and distributes economic and labor market data about the U.S. Its reports include the CPI and PPI, both important inflation measures.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

Open to ideas or acquisitions

Failure is an unavoidable aspect of life, yet many recoil at the word.

I've worked on unrelated startup projects. This is a list of products I developed (often as the tech lead or co-founder) and why they failed to launch.

Chess Bet (Betting)

As a chess player who plays 5 games a day and has an ELO rating of 2100, I tried to design a chess engine to rival stockfish and Houdini.

While constructing my chess engine, my cofounder asked me about building a p2p chess betting app. Chess Bet. There couldn't be a better time.

Two people in different locations could play a staked game. The winner got 90% of the bet and we got 10%. The business strategy was clear, but our mini-launch was unusual.

People started employing the same cheat engines I mentioned, causing user churn and defaming our product.

It was the first programming problem I couldn't solve after building a cheat detection system based on player move strengths and prior games. Chess.com, the most famous online chess software, still suffers from this.

We decided to pivot because we needed an expensive betting license.

We relaunched as Chess MVP after deciding to focus on chess learning. A platform for teachers to create chess puzzles and teach content. Several chess students used our product, but the target market was too tiny.

We chose to quit rather than persevere or pivot.

BodaCare (Insure Tech)

‘BodaBoda’ in Swahili means Motorcycle. My Dad approached me in 2019 (when I was working for a health tech business) about establishing an Insurtech/fintech solution for motorbike riders to pay for insurance using SNPL.

We teamed up with an underwriter to market motorcycle insurance. Once they had enough premiums, they'd get an insurance sticker in the mail. We made it better by splitting the cover in two, making it more reasonable for motorcyclists struggling with lump-sum premiums.

Lack of capital and changing customer behavior forced us to close, with 100 motorcyclists paying 0.5 USD every day. Our unit econ didn't make sense, and CAC and retention capital only dug us deeper.

Circle (Social Networking)

Having learned from both product failures, I began to understand what worked and what didn't. While reading through Instagram, an idea struck me.

Suppose social media weren't virtual.

Imagine meeting someone on your way home. Like-minded person

People were excited about social occasions after covid restrictions were eased. Anything to escape. I just built a university student-popular experiences startup. Again, there couldn't be a better time.

I started the Android app. I launched it on Google Beta and oh my! 200 people joined in two days.

It works by signaling if people are in a given place and allowing users to IM in hopes of meeting up in near real-time. Playstore couldn't deploy the app despite its success in beta for unknown reasons. I appealed unsuccessfully.

My infrastructure quickly lost users because I lacked funding.

In conclusion

This essay contains many failures, some of which might have been avoided and others not, but they were crucial learning points in my startup path.

If you liked any idea, I have the source code on Github.

Happy reading until then!