More on Entrepreneurship/Creators

ʟ ᴜ ᴄ ʏ
3 years ago
The Untapped Gold Mine of Inspiration and Startup Ideas
I joined the 1000 Digital Startups Movement (Gerakan 1000 Startup Digital) in 2017 and learned a lot about the startup sector. My previous essay outlined what a startup is and what must be prepared. Here I'll offer raw ideas for better products.
Intro
A good startup solves a problem. These can include environmental, economic, energy, transportation, logistics, maritime, forestry, livestock, education, tourism, legal, arts and culture, communication, and information challenges. Everything I wrote is simply a basic idea (as inspiration) and requires more mapping and validation. Learn how to construct a startup to maximize launch success.
Adrian Gunadi (Investree Co-Founder) taught me that a Founder or Co-Founder must be willing to be CEO (Chief Everything Officer). Everything is independent, including drafting a proposal, managing finances, and scheduling appointments. The best individuals will come to you if you're the best. It's easier than consulting Andy Zain (Kejora Capital Founder).
Description
To help better understanding from your idea, try to answer this following questions:
- Describe your idea/application
Maximum 1000 characters.
- Background
Explain the reasons that prompted you to realize the idea/application.
- Objective
Explain the expected goals of the creation of the idea/application.
- Solution
A solution that tells your idea can be the right solution for the problem at hand.
- Uniqueness
What makes your idea/app unique?
- Market share
Who are the people who need and are looking for your idea?
- Marketing Ways and Business Models
What is the best way to sell your idea and what is the business model?
Not everything here is a startup idea. It's meant to inspire creativity and new perspectives.
Ideas
#Application
1. Medical students can operate on patients or not. Applications that train prospective doctors to distinguish body organs and their placement are useful. In the advanced stage, the app can be built with numerous approaches so future doctors can practice operating on patients based on their ailments. If they made a mistake, they'd start over. Future doctors will be more assured and make fewer mistakes this way.
2. VR (virtual reality) technology lets people see 3D space from afar. Later, similar technology was utilized to digitally sell properties, so buyers could see the inside and room contents. Every gadget has flaws. It's like a gold mine for robbers. VR can let prospective students see a campus's facilities. This facility can also help hotels promote their products.
3. How can retail entrepreneurs maximize sales? Most popular goods' sales data. By using product and brand/type sales figures, entrepreneurs can avoid overstocking. Walmart computerized their procedures to track products from the manufacturer to the store. As Retail Link products sell out, suppliers can immediately step in.
4. Failing to marry is something to be avoided. But if it had to happen, the loss would be like the proverb “rub salt into the wound”. On the I do Now I dont website, Americans who don't marry can resell their jewelry to other brides-to-be. If some want to cancel the wedding and receive their down money and dress back, others want a wedding with particular criteria, such as a quick date and the expected building. Create a DP takeover marketplace for both sides.
#Games
1. Like in the movie, players must exit the maze they enter within 3 minutes or the shape will change, requiring them to change their strategy. The maze's transformation time will shorten after a few stages.
2. Treasure hunts involve following clues to uncover hidden goods. Here, numerous sponsors are combined in one boat, and participants can choose a game based on the prizes. Let's say X-mart is a sponsor and provides riddles or puzzles to uncover the prize in their store. After gathering enough points, the player can trade them for a gift utilizing GPS and AR (augmented reality). Players can collaborate to increase their chances of success.
3. Where's Wally? Where’s Wally displays a thick image with several things and various Wally-like characters. We must find the actual Wally, his companions, and the desired object. Make a game with a map where players must find objects for the next level. The player must find 5 artifacts randomly placed in an Egyptian-style mansion, for example. In the room, there are standard tickets, pass tickets, and gold tickets that can be removed for safekeeping, as well as a wall-mounted carpet that can be stored but not searched and turns out to be a flying rug that can be used to cross/jump to a different place. Regular tickets are spread out since they can buy life or stuff. At a higher level, a black ticket can lower your ordinary ticket. Objects can explode, scattering previously acquired stuff. If a player runs out of time, they can exchange a ticket for more.
#TVprogram
1. At the airport there are various visitors who come with different purposes. Asking tourists to live for 1 or 2 days in the city will be intriguing to witness.
2. Many professions exist. Carpenters, cooks, and lawyers must have known about job desks. Does HRD (Human Resource Development) only recruit new employees? Many don't know how to become a CEO, CMO, COO, CFO, or CTO. Showing young people what a Program Officer in an NGO does can help them choose a career.
#StampsCreations
Philatelists know that only the government can issue stamps. I hope stamps are creative so they have more worth.
1. Thermochromic pigments (leuco dyes) are well-known for their distinctive properties. By putting pigments to black and white batik stamps, for example, the black color will be translucent and display the basic color when touched (at a hot temperature).
2. In 2012, Liechtenstein Post published a laser-art Chinese zodiac stamp. Belgium (Bruges Market Square 2012), Taiwan (Swallow Tail Butterfly 2009), etc. Why not make a stencil of the president or king/queen?
3. Each country needs its unique identity, like Taiwan's silk and bamboo stamps. Create from your country's history. Using traditional paper like washi (Japan), hanji (Korea), and daluang/saeh (Indonesia) can introduce a country's culture.
4. Garbage has long been a problem. Bagasse, banana fronds, or corn husks can be used as stamp material.
5. Austria Post published a stamp containing meteor dust in 2006. 2004 meteorite found in Morocco produced the dust. Gibraltar's Rock of Gilbraltar appeared on stamps in 2002. What's so great about your country? East Java is muddy (Lapindo mud). Lapindo mud stamps will be popular. Red sand at Pink Beach, East Nusa Tenggara, could replace the mud.
#PostcardCreations
1. Map postcards are popular because they make searching easier. Combining laser-cut road map patterns with perforated 200-gram paper glued on 400-gram paper as a writing medium. Vision-impaired people can use laser-cut maps.
2. Regional art can be promoted by tucking traditional textiles into postcards.
3. A thin canvas or plain paper on the card's front allows the giver to be creative.
4. What is local crop residue? Cork lids, maize husks, and rice husks can be recycled into postcard materials.
5. Have you seen a dried-flower bookmark? Cover the postcard with mica and add dried flowers. If you're worried about losing the flowers, you can glue them or make a postcard envelope.
6. Wood may be ubiquitous; try a 0.2-mm copper plate engraved with an image and connected to a postcard as a writing medium.
7. Utilized paper pulp can be used to hold eggs, smartphones, and food. Form a smooth paper pulp on the plate with the desired image, the Golden Gate bridge, and paste it on your card.
8. Postcards can promote perfume. When customers rub their hands on the card with the perfume image, they'll smell the aroma.
#Tour #Travel
Tourism activities can be tailored to tourists' interests or needs. Each tourist benefits from tourism's distinct aim.
Let's define tourism's objective and purpose.
Holiday Tour is a tour that its participants plan and do in order to relax, have fun, and amuse themselves.
A familiarization tour is a journey designed to help travelers learn more about (survey) locales connected to their line of work.
An educational tour is one that aims to give visitors knowledge of the field of work they are visiting or an overview of it.
A scientific field is investigated and knowledge gained as the major goal of a scientific tour.
A pilgrimage tour is one designed to engage in acts of worship.
A special mission tour is one that has a specific goal, such a commerce mission or an artistic endeavor.
A hunting tour is a destination for tourists that plans organized animal hunting that is only allowed by local authorities for entertainment purposes.
Every part of life has tourism potential. Activities include:
1. Those who desire to volunteer can benefit from the humanitarian theme and collaboration with NGOs. This activity's profit isn't huge but consider the environmental impact.
2. Want to escape the city? Meditation travel can help. Beautiful spots around the globe can help people forget their concerns. A certified yoga/meditation teacher can help travelers release bad energy.
3. Any prison visitors? Some prisons, like those for minors under 17, are open to visitors. This type of tourism helps mental convicts reach a brighter future.
4. Who has taken a factory tour/study tour? Outside-of-school study tour (for ordinary people who have finished their studies). Not everyone in school could tour industries, workplaces, or embassies to learn and be inspired. Shoyeido (an incense maker) and Royce (a chocolate maker) offer factory tours in Japan.
5. Develop educational tourism like astronomy and archaeology. Until now, only a few astronomy enthusiasts have promoted astronomy tourism. In Indonesia, archaeology activities focus on site preservation, and to participate, office staff must undertake a series of training (not everyone can take a sabbatical from their routine). Archaeological tourist activities are limited, whether held by history and culture enthusiasts or in regional tours.
6. Have you ever longed to observe a film being made or your favorite musician rehearsing? Such tours can motivate young people to pursue entertainment careers.
7. Pamper your pets to reduce stress. Many pet owners don't have time for walks or treats. These premium services target the wealthy.
8. A quirky idea to provide tours for imaginary couples or things. Some people marry inanimate objects or animals and seek to make their lover happy; others cherish their ashes after death.
#MISCideas
1. Fashion is a lifestyle, thus people often seek fresh materials. Chicken claws, geckos, snake skin casings, mice, bats, and fish skins are also used. Needs some improvement, definitely.
2. As fuel supplies become scarcer, people hunt for other energy sources. Sound is an underutilized renewable energy. The Batechsant technology converts environmental noise into electrical energy, according to study (Battery Technology Of Sound Power Plant). South Korean researchers use Sound-Driven Piezoelectric Nanowire based on Nanogenerators to recharge cell phone batteries. The Batechsant system uses existing noise levels to provide electricity for street lamp lights, aviation, and ships. Using waterfall sound can also energize hard-to-reach locations.
3. A New York Times reporter said IQ doesn't ensure success. Our school system prioritizes IQ above EQ (Emotional Quotient). EQ is a sort of human intelligence that allows a person to perceive and analyze the dynamics of his emotions when interacting with others (and with himself). EQ is suspected of being a bigger source of success than IQ. EQ training can gain greater attention to help people succeed. Prioritize role models from school stakeholders, teachers, and parents to improve children' EQ.
4. Teaching focuses more on theory than practice, so students are less eager to explore and easily forget if they don't pay attention. Has an engineer ever made bricks from arid red soil? Morocco's non-college-educated builders can create weatherproof bricks from red soil without equipment. Can mechanical engineering grads create a water pump to solve water shortages in remote areas? Art graduates can innovate beyond only painting. Artists may create kinetic sculpture by experimenting so much. Young people should understand these sciences so they can be more creative with their potential. These might be extracurricular activities in high school and university.
5. People have been trying to recycle agricultural waste for a long time. Mycelium helps replace light, easily crushed tiles and bricks (a collection of hyphae like in the manufacture of tempe). Waste must contain lignocellulose. In this vein, anti-mainstream painting canvases can be made. The goal is to create the canvas uneven like an amoeba outline, not square or spherical. The resulting canvas is lightweight and needs no frame. Then what? Open source your idea like Precious Plastic to establish a community. By propagating this notion, many knowledgeable people will help improve your product's quality and impact.
6. As technology and humans adapt, fraud increases. Making phony doctor's letters to fool superiors, fake credentials to get hired, fraudulent land certificates to make money, and fake news (hoax). The existence of a Wikimedia can aid the community by comparing bogus and original information.
7. Do you often hit a problem-solving impasse? Since the Doraemon bag hasn't been made, construct an Idea Bank. Everyone can contribute to solving problems here. How do you recruit volunteers? Obviously, a reward is needed. Contributors can become moderators or gain complimentary tickets to TIA (Tech in Asia) conferences. Idea Bank-related concepts: the rise of startups without a solid foundation generates an age as old as corn that does not continue. Those with startup ideas should describe them here so they can be validated by other users. Other users can contribute input if a comparable notion is produced to improve the product or integrate it. Similar-minded users can become Co-Founders.
8. Why not invest in fruit/vegetables, inspired by digital farming? The landowner obtains free fruit without spending much money on maintenance. Investors can get fruits/vegetables in larger quantities, fresher, and cheaper during harvest. Fruits and vegetables are often harmed if delivered too slowly. Rich investors with limited land can invest in teak, agarwood, and other trees. When harvesting, investors might choose raw results or direct wood sales earnings. Teak takes at least 7 years to harvest, therefore long-term wood investments carry the risk of crop failure.
9. Teenagers in distant locations can't count, read, or write. Many factors hinder locals' success. Life's demands force them to work instead of study. Creating a learning playground may attract young people to learning. Make a skatepark at school. Skateboarders must learn in school. Donations buy skateboards.
10. Globally, online taxi-bike is known. By hiring a motorcycle/car online, people no longer bother traveling without a vehicle. What if you wish to cross the island or visit remote areas? Is online boat or helicopter rental possible like online taxi-bike? Such a renting process has been done independently thus far and cannot be done quickly.
11. What do startups need now? A startup or investor consultant. How many startups fail to become Unicorns? Many founders don't know how to manage investor money, therefore they waste it on promotions and other things. Many investors only know how to invest and can't guide a struggling firm.
“In times of crisis, the wise build bridges, while the foolish build barriers.” — T’Challa [Black Panther]
Don't chase cash. Money is a byproduct. Profit-seeking is stressful. Market requirements are opportunities. If you have something to say, please comment.
This is only informational. Before implementing ideas, do further study.

Jim Siwek
3 years ago
In 2022, can a lone developer be able to successfully establish a SaaS product?
In the early 2000s, I began developing SaaS. I helped launch an internet fax service that delivered faxes to email inboxes. Back then, it saved consumers money and made the procedure easier.
Google AdWords was young then. Anyone might establish a new website, spend a few hundred dollars on keywords, and see dozens of new paying clients every day. That's how we launched our new SaaS, and these clients stayed for years. Our early ROI was sky-high.
Changing times
The situation changed dramatically after 15 years. Our paid advertising cost $200-$300 for every new customer. Paid advertising takes three to four years to repay.
Fortunately, we still had tens of thousands of loyal clients. Good organic rankings gave us new business. We needed less sponsored traffic to run a profitable SaaS firm.
Is it still possible?
Since selling our internet fax firm, I've dreamed about starting a SaaS company. One I could construct as a lone developer and progressively grow a dedicated customer base, as I did before in a small team.
It seemed impossible to me. Solo startups couldn't afford paid advertising. SEO was tough. Even the worst SaaS startup ideas attracted VC funding. How could I compete with startups that could hire great talent and didn't need to make money for years (or ever)?
The One and Only Way to Learn
After years of talking myself out of SaaS startup ideas, I decided to develop and launch one. I needed to know if a solitary developer may create a SaaS app in 2022.
Thus, I did. I invented webwriter.ai, an AI-powered writing tool for website content, from hero section headlines to blog posts, this year. I soft-launched an MVP in July.
Considering the Issue
Now that I've developed my own fully capable SaaS app for site builders and developers, I wonder if it's still possible. Can webwriter.ai be successful?
I know webwriter.ai's proposal is viable because Jasper.ai and Grammarly are also AI-powered writing tools. With competition comes validation.
To Win, Differentiate
To compete with well-funded established brands, distinguish to stand out to a portion of the market. So I can speak directly to a target user, unlike larger competition.
I created webwriter.ai to help web builders and designers produce web content rapidly. This may be enough differentiation for now.
Budget-Friendly Promotion
When paid search isn't an option, we get inventive. There are more tools than ever to promote a new website.
Organic Results
on social media (Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn)
Marketing with content that is compelling
Link Creation
Listings in directories
references made in blog articles and on other websites
Forum entries
The Beginning of the Journey
As I've labored to construct my software, I've pondered a new mantra. Not sure where that originated from, but I like it. I'll live by it and teach my kids:
“Do the work.”

Rachel Greenberg
3 years ago
The Unsettling Fact VC-Backed Entrepreneurs Don't Want You to Know
What they'll do is scarier.
My acquaintance recently joined a VC-funded startup. Money, equity, and upside possibilities were nice, but he had a nagging dread.
They just secured a $40M round and are hiring like crazy to prepare for their IPO in two years. All signals pointed to this startup's (a B2B IT business in a stable industry) success, and its equity-holding workers wouldn't pass that up.
Five months after starting the work, my friend struggled with leaving. We might overlook the awful culture and long hours at the proper price. This price plus the company's fate and survival abilities sent my friend departing in an unpleasant unplanned resignation before jumping on yet another sinking ship.
This affects founders. This affects VC-backed companies (and all businesses). This affects anyone starting, buying, or running a business.
Here's the under-the-table approach that's draining VC capital, leaving staff terrified (or jobless), founders rattled, and investors upset. How to recognize, solve, and avoid it
The unsettling reality behind door #1
You can't raise money off just your looks, right? If "looks" means your founding team's expertise, then maybe. In my friend's case, the founding team's strong qualifications and track records won over investors before talking figures.
They're hardly the only startup to raise money without a profitable customer acquisition strategy. Another firm raised money for an expensive sleep product because it's eco-friendly. They were off to the races with a few keywords and key players.
Both companies, along with numerous others, elected to invest on product development first. Company A employed all the tech, then courted half their market (they’re a tech marketplace that connects two parties). Company B spent millions on R&D to create a palatable product, then flooded the world with marketing.
My friend is on Company B's financial team, and he's seen where they've gone wrong. It's terrible.
Company A (tech market): Growing? Not quite. To achieve the ambitious expansion they (and their investors) demand, they've poured much of their little capital into salespeople: Cold-calling commission and salary salesmen. Is it working? Considering attrition and companies' dwindling capital, I don't think so.
Company B (green sleep) has been hiring, digital marketing, and opening new stores like crazy. Growing expenses should result in growing revenues and a favorable return on investment; if you grow too rapidly, you may neglect to check that ROI.
Once Company A cut headcount and Company B declared “going concerned”, my friend realized both startups had the same ailment and didn't recognize it.
I shouldn't have to ask a friend to verify a company's cash reserves and profitability to spot a financial problem. It happened anyhow.
The frightening part isn't that investors were willing to invest millions without product-market fit, CAC, or LTV estimates. That's alarming, but not as scary as the fact that startups aren't understanding the problem until VC rounds have dried up.
When they question consultants if their company will be around in 6 months. It’s a red flag. How will they stretch $20M through a 2-year recession with a $3M/month burn rate and no profitability? Alarms go off.
Who's in danger?
In a word, everyone who raised money without a profitable client acquisition strategy or enough resources to ride out dry spells.
Money mismanagement and poor priorities affect every industry (like sinking all your capital into your product, team, or tech, at the expense of probing what customer acquisition really takes and looks like).
This isn't about tech, real estate, or recession-proof luxury products. Fast, cheap, easy money flows into flashy-looking teams with buzzwords, trending industries, and attractive credentials.
If these companies can't show progress or get a profitable CAC, they can't raise more money. They die if they can't raise more money (or slash headcount and find shoestring budget solutions until they solve the real problem).
The kiss of death (and how to avoid it)
If you're running a startup and think raising VC is the answer, pause and evaluate. Do you need the money now?
I'm not saying VC is terrible or has no role. Founders have used it as a Band-Aid for larger, pervasive problems. Venture cash isn't a crutch for recruiting consumers profitably; it's rocket fuel to get you what and who you need.
Pay-to-play isn't a way to throw money at the wall and hope for a return. Pay-to-play works until you run out of money, and if you haven't mastered client acquisition, your cash will diminish quickly.
How can you avoid this bottomless pit? Tips:
Understand your burn rate
Keep an eye on your growth or profitability.
Analyze each and every marketing channel and initiative.
Make lucrative customer acquisition strategies and satisfied customers your top two priorities. not brand-new products. not stellar hires. avoid the fundraising rollercoaster to save time. If you succeed in these two tasks, investors will approach you with their thirsty offers rather than the other way around, and your cash reserves won't diminish as a result.
Not as much as your grandfather
My family friend always justified expensive, impractical expenditures by saying it was only monopoly money. In business, startups, and especially with money from investors expecting a return, that's not true.
More founders could understand that there isn't always another round if they viewed VC money as their own limited pool. When the well runs dry, you must refill it or save the day.
Venture financing isn't your grandpa's money. A discerning investor has entrusted you with dry powder in the hope that you'll use it wisely, strategically, and thoughtfully. Use it well.
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Liam Vaughan
3 years ago
Investors can bet big on almost anything on a new prediction market.
Kalshi allows five-figure bets on the Grammys, the next Covid wave, and future SEC commissioners. Worst-case scenario
On Election Day 2020, two young entrepreneurs received a call from the CFTC chairman. Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour spent 18 months trying to start a new type of financial exchange. Instead of betting on stock prices or commodity futures, people could trade instruments tied to real-world events, such as legislation, the weather, or the Oscar winner.
Heath Tarbert, a Trump appointee, shouted "Congratulations." "You're competing with 1840s-era markets. I'm sure you'll become a powerhouse too."
Companies had tried to introduce similar event markets in the US for years, but Tarbert's agency, the CFTC, said no, arguing they were gambling and prone to cheating. Now the agency has reversed course, approving two 24-year-olds who will have first-mover advantage in what could become a huge new asset class. Kalshi Inc. raised $30 million from venture capitalists within weeks of Tarbert's call, his representative says. Mansour, 26, believes this will be bigger than crypto.
Anyone who's read The Wisdom of Crowds knows prediction markets' potential. Well-designed markets can help draw out knowledge from disparate groups, and research shows that when money is at stake, people make better predictions. Lopes Lara calls it a "bullshit tax." That's why Google, Microsoft, and even the US Department of Defense use prediction markets internally to guide decisions, and why university-linked political betting sites like PredictIt sometimes outperform polls.
Regulators feared Wall Street-scale trading would encourage investors to manipulate reality. If the stakes are high enough, traders could pressure congressional staffers to stall a bill or bet on whether Kanye West's new album will drop this week. When Lopes Lara and Mansour pitched the CFTC, senior regulators raised these issues. Politically appointed commissioners overruled their concerns, and one later joined Kalshi's board.
Will Kanye’s new album come out next week? Yes or no?
Kalshi's victory was due more to lobbying and legal wrangling than to Silicon Valley-style innovation. Lopes Lara and Mansour didn't invent anything; they changed a well-established concept's governance. The result could usher in a new era of market-based enlightenment or push Wall Street's destructive tendencies into the real world.
If Kalshi's founders lacked experience to bolster their CFTC application, they had comical youth success. Lopes Lara studied ballet at the Brazilian Bolshoi before coming to the US. Mansour won France's math Olympiad. They bonded over their work ethic in an MIT computer science class.
Lopes Lara had the idea for Kalshi while interning at a New York hedge fund. When the traders around her weren't working, she noticed they were betting on the news: Would Apple hit a trillion dollars? Kylie Jenner? "It was anything," she says.
Are mortgage rates going up? Yes or no?
Mansour saw the business potential when Lopes Lara suggested it. He interned at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., helping investors prepare for the UK leaving the EU. Goldman sold clients complex stock-and-derivative combinations. As he discussed it with Lopes Lara, they agreed that investors should hedge their risk by betting on Brexit itself rather than an imperfect proxy.
Lopes Lara and Mansour hypothesized how a marketplace might work. They settled on a "event contract," a binary-outcome instrument like "Will inflation hit 5% by the end of the month?" The contract would settle at $1 (if the event happened) or zero (if it didn't), but its price would fluctuate based on market sentiment. After a good debate, a politician's election odds may rise from 50 to 55. Kalshi would charge a commission on every trade and sell data to traders, political campaigns, businesses, and others.
In October 2018, five months after graduation, the pair flew to California to compete in a hackathon for wannabe tech founders organized by the Silicon Valley incubator Y Combinator. They built a website in a day and a night and presented it to entrepreneurs the next day. Their prototype barely worked, but they won a three-month mentorship program and $150,000. Michael Seibel, managing director of Y Combinator, said of their idea, "I had to take a chance!"
Will there be another moon landing by 2025?
Seibel's skepticism was rooted in America's historical wariness of gambling. Roulette, poker, and other online casino games are largely illegal, and sports betting was only legal in a few states until May 2018. Kalshi as a risk-hedging platform rather than a bookmaker seemed like a good idea, but convincing the CFTC wouldn't be easy. In 2012, the CFTC said trading on politics had no "economic purpose" and was "contrary to the public interest."
Lopes Lara and Mansour cold-called 60 Googled lawyers during their time at Y Combinator. Everyone advised quitting. Mansour recalls the pain. Jeff Bandman, a former CFTC official, helped them navigate the agency and its characters.
When they weren’t busy trying to recruit lawyers, Lopes Lara and Mansour were meeting early-stage investors. Alfred Lin of Sequoia Capital Operations LLC backed Airbnb, DoorDash, and Uber Technologies. Lin told the founders their idea could capitalize on retail trading and challenge how the financial world manages risk. "Come back with regulatory approval," he said.
In the US, even small bets on most events were once illegal. Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC can stop exchanges from listing contracts relating to "terrorism, assassination, war" and "gaming" if they are "contrary to the public interest," which was often the case.
Will subway ridership return to normal? Yes or no?
In 1988, as academic interest in the field grew, the agency allowed the University of Iowa to set up a prediction market for research purposes, as long as it didn't make a profit or advertise and limited bets to $500. PredictIt, the biggest and best-known political betting platform in the US, also got an exemption thanks to an association with Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. Today, it's a sprawling marketplace with its own subculture and lingo. PredictIt users call it "Rules Cuck Panther" when they lose on a technicality. Major news outlets cite PredictIt's odds on Discord and the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast.
CFTC limits PredictIt bets to $850. To keep traders happy, PredictIt will often run multiple variations of the same question, listing separate contracts for two dozen Democratic primary candidates, for example. A trader could have more than $10,000 riding on a single outcome. Some of the site's traders are current or former campaign staffers who can answer questions like "How many tweets will Donald Trump post from Nov. 20 to 27?" and "When will Anthony Scaramucci's role as White House communications director end?"
According to PredictIt co-founder John Phillips, politicians help explain the site's accuracy. "Prediction markets work well and are accurate because they attract people with superior information," he said in a 2016 podcast. “In the financial stock market, it’s called inside information.”
Will Build Back Better pass? Yes or no?
Trading on nonpublic information is illegal outside of academia, which presented a dilemma for Lopes Lara and Mansour. Kalshi's forecasts needed to be accurate. Kalshi must eliminate insider trading as a regulated entity. Lopes Lara and Mansour wanted to build a high-stakes PredictIt without the anarchy or blurred legal lines—a "New York Stock Exchange for Events." First, they had to convince regulators event trading was safe.
When Lopes Lara and Mansour approached the CFTC in the spring of 2019, some officials in the Division of Market Oversight were skeptical, according to interviews with people involved in the process. For all Kalshi's talk of revolutionizing finance, this was just a turbocharged version of something that had been rejected before.
The DMO couldn't see the big picture. The staff review was supposed to ensure Kalshi could complete a checklist, "23 Core Principles of a Designated Contract Market," which included keeping good records and having enough money. The five commissioners decide. With Trump as president, three of them were ideologically pro-market.
Lopes Lara, Mansour, and their lawyer Bandman, an ex-CFTC official, answered the DMO's questions while lobbying the commissioners on Zoom about the potential of event markets to mitigate risks and make better decisions. Before each meeting, they would write a script and memorize it word for word.
Will student debt be forgiven? Yes or no?
Several prediction markets that hadn't sought regulatory approval bolstered Kalshi's case. Polymarket let customers bet hundreds of thousands of dollars anonymously using cryptocurrencies, making it hard to track. Augur, which facilitates private wagers between parties using blockchain, couldn't regulate bets and hadn't stopped users from betting on assassinations. Kalshi, by comparison, argued it was doing everything right. (The CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for operating an unlicensed exchange in January 2022. Polymarket says it's now compliant and excited to pioneer smart contract-based financial solutions with regulators.
Kalshi was approved unanimously despite some DMO members' concerns about event contracts' riskiness. "Once they check all the boxes, they're in," says a CFTC insider.
Three months after CFTC approval, Kalshi announced funding from Sequoia, Charles Schwab, and Henry Kravis. Sequoia's Lin, who joined the board, said Tarek, Luana, and team created a new way to invest and engage with the world.
The CFTC hadn't asked what markets the exchange planned to run since. After approval, Lopes Lara and Mansour had the momentum. Kalshi's March list of 30 proposed contracts caused chaos at the DMO. The division handles exchanges that create two or three new markets a year. Kalshi’s business model called for new ones practically every day.
Uncontroversial proposals included weather and GDP questions. Others, on the initial list and later, were concerning. DMO officials feared Covid-19 contracts amounted to gambling on human suffering, which is why war and terrorism markets are banned. (Similar logic doomed ex-admiral John Poindexter's Policy Analysis Market, a Bush-era plan to uncover intelligence by having security analysts bet on Middle East events.) Regulators didn't see how predicting the Grammy winners was different from betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. Who, other than John Legend, would need to hedge the best R&B album winner?
Event contracts raised new questions for the DMO's product review team. Regulators could block gaming contracts that weren't in the public interest under the Commodity Exchange Act, but no one had defined gaming. It was unclear whether the CFTC had a right or an obligation to consider whether a contract was in the public interest. How was it to determine public interest? Another person familiar with the CFTC review says, "It was a mess." The agency didn't comment.
CFTC staff feared some event contracts could be cheated. Kalshi wanted to run a bee-endangerment market. The DMO pushed back, saying it saw two problems symptomatic of the asset class: traders could press government officials for information, and officials could delay adding the insects to the list to cash in.
The idea that traders might manipulate prediction markets wasn't paranoid. In 2013, academics David Rothschild and Rajiv Sethi found that an unidentified party lost $7 million buying Mitt Romney contracts on Intrade, a now-defunct, unlicensed Irish platform, in the runup to the 2012 election. The authors speculated that the trader, whom they dubbed the “Romney Whale,” may have been looking to boost morale and keep donations coming in.
Kalshi said manipulation and insider trading are risks for any market. It built a surveillance system and said it would hire a team to monitor it. "People trade on events all the time—they just use options and other instruments. This brings everything into the open, Mansour says. Kalshi didn't include election contracts, a red line for CFTC Democrats.
Lopes Lara and Mansour were ready to launch kalshi.com that summer, but the DMO blocked them. Product reviewers were frustrated by spending half their time on an exchange that represented a tiny portion of the derivatives market. Lopes Lara and Mansour pressed politically appointed commissioners during the impasse.
Tarbert, the chairman, had moved on, but Kalshi found a new supporter in Republican Brian Quintenz, a crypto-loving former hedge fund manager. He was unmoved by the DMO's concerns, arguing that speculation on Kalshi's proposed events was desirable and the agency had no legal standing to prevent it. He supported a failed bid to allow NFL futures earlier this year. Others on the commission were cautious but supportive. Given the law's ambiguity, they worried they'd be on shaky ground if Kalshi sued if they blocked a contract. Without a permanent chairman, the agency lacked leadership.
To block a contract, DMO staff needed a majority of commissioners' support, which they didn't have in all but a few cases. "We didn't have the votes," a reviewer says, paraphrasing Hamilton. By the second half of 2021, new contract requests were arriving almost daily at the DMO, and the demoralized and overrun division eventually accepted defeat and stopped fighting back. By the end of the year, three senior DMO officials had left the agency, making it easier for Kalshi to list its contracts unimpeded.
Today, Kalshi is growing. 32 employees work in a SoHo office with big windows and exposed brick. Quintenz, who left the CFTC 10 months after Kalshi was approved, is on its board. He joined because he was interested in the market's hedging and risk management opportunities.
Mid-May, the company's website had 75 markets, such as "Will Q4 GDP be negative?" Will NASA land on the moon by 2025? The exchange recently reached 2 million weekly contracts, a jump from where it started but still a small number compared to other futures exchanges. Early adopters are PredictIt and Polymarket fans. Bets on the site are currently capped at $25,000, but Kalshi hopes to increase that to $100,000 and beyond.
With the regulatory drawbridge down, Lopes Lara and Mansour must move quickly. Chicago's CME Group Inc. plans to offer index-linked event contracts. Kalshi will release a smartphone app to attract customers. After that, it hopes to partner with a big brokerage. Sequoia is a major investor in Robinhood Markets Inc. Robinhood users could have access to Kalshi so that after buying GameStop Corp. shares, they'd be prompted to bet on the Oscars or the next Fed commissioner.
Some, like Illinois Democrat Sean Casten, accuse Robinhood and its competitors of gamifying trading to encourage addiction, but Kalshi doesn't seem worried. Mansour says Kalshi's customers can't bet more than they've deposited, making debt difficult. Eventually, he may introduce leveraged bets.
Tension over event contracts recalls another CFTC episode. Brooksley Born proposed regulating the financial derivatives market in 1994. Alan Greenspan and others in the government opposed her, saying it would stifle innovation and push capital overseas. Unrestrained, derivatives grew into a trillion-dollar industry until 2008, when they sparked the financial crisis.
Today, with a midterm election looming, it seems reasonable to ask whether Kalshi plans to get involved. Elections have historically been the biggest draw in prediction markets, with 125 million shares traded on PredictIt for 2020. “We can’t discuss specifics,” Mansour says. “All I can say is, you know, we’re always working on expanding the universe of things that people can trade on.”
Any election contracts would need CFTC approval, which may be difficult with three Democratic commissioners. A Republican president would change the equation.

Jari Roomer
3 years ago
5 ways to never run out of article ideas
“Perfectionism is the enemy of the idea muscle. " — James Altucher
Writer's block is a typical explanation for low output. Success requires productivity.
In four years of writing, I've never had writer's block. And you shouldn't care.
You'll never run out of content ideas if you follow a few tactics. No, I'm not overpromising.
Take Note of Ideas
Brains are strange machines. Blank when it's time to write. Idiot. Nothing. We get the best article ideas when we're away from our workstation.
In the shower
Driving
In our dreams
Walking
During dull chats
Meditating
In the gym
No accident. The best ideas come in the shower, in nature, or while exercising.
(Your workstation is the worst place for creativity.)
The brain has time and space to link 'dots' of information during rest. It's eureka! New idea.
If you're serious about writing, capture thoughts as they come.
Immediately write down a new thought. Capture it. Don't miss it. Your future self will thank you.
As a writer, entrepreneur, or creative, letting ideas slide is bad.
I recommend using Evernote, Notion, or your device's basic note-taking tool to capture article ideas.
It doesn't matter whatever app you use as long as you collect article ideas.
When you practice 'idea-capturing' enough, you'll have an unending list of article ideas when writer's block hits.
High-Quality Content
More books, films, Medium pieces, and Youtube videos I consume, the more I'm inspired to write.
What you eat shapes who you are.
Celebrity gossip and fear-mongering news won't help your writing. It won't help you write regularly.
Instead, read expert-written books. Watch documentaries to improve your worldview. Follow amazing people online.
Develop your 'idea muscle' Daily creativity takes practice. The more you exercise your 'idea muscles,' the easier it is to generate article ideas.
I've trained my 'concept muscle' using James Altucher's exercise.
Write 10 ideas daily.
Write ten book ideas every day if you're an author. Write down 10 business ideas per day if you're an entrepreneur. Write down 10 investing ideas per day.
Write 10 article ideas per day. You become a content machine.
It doesn't state you need ten amazing ideas. You don't need 10 ideas. Ten ideas, regardless of quality.
Like at the gym, reps are what matter. With each article idea, you gain creativity. Writer's block is no match for this workout.
Quit Perfectionism
Perfectionism is bad for writers. You'll have bad articles. You'll have bad ideas. OK. It's creative.
Writing success requires prolificacy. You can't have 'perfect' articles.
“Perfectionism is the enemy of the idea muscle. Perfectionism is your brain trying to protect you from harm.” — James Altucher
Vincent van Gogh painted 900 pieces. The Starry Night is the most famous.
Thomas Edison invented 1093 things, but not all were as important as the lightbulb or the first movie camera.
Mozart composed nearly 600 compositions, but only Serenade No13 became popular.
Always do your best. Perfectionism shouldn't stop you from working. Write! Publicize. Make. Even if imperfect.
Write Your Story
Living an interesting life gives you plenty to write about. If you travel a lot, share your stories or lessons learned.
Describe your business's successes and shortcomings.
Share your experiences with difficulties or addictions.
More experiences equal more writing material.
If you stay indoors, perusing social media, you won't be inspired to write.
Have fun. Travel. Strive. Build a business. Be bold. Live a life worth writing about, and you won't run out of material.

David G Chen
3 years ago
If you want to earn money, stop writing for entertainment.
When you stop blogging for a few weeks, your views and profits plummet.
Because you're writing fascinating posts for others. Everyone's done ithat…
If I keep writing, the graph should maintain velocity, you could say. If I wrote more, it could rise.
However, entertaining pieces still tend to roller coaster and jump.
this type of writing is like a candle. They burn out and must be replaced. You must continuously light new ones to maintain the illumination.
When you quit writing, your income stops.
A substitute
Instead of producing amusing articles, try solving people's issues. You should answer their search questions.
Here's what happens when you answer their searches.
My website's Google analytics. As a dentist, I answer oral health questions.
This chart vs. Medium is pretty glaring, right?
As of yesterday, it was averaging 15k page views each day.
How much would you make on Medium with 15k daily views?
Evergreen materials
In SEO, this is called evergreen content.
Your content is like a lush, evergreen forest, and by green I mean Benjamins.
Do you have knowledge that you can leverage? Why not help your neighbors and the world?
Answer search inquiries and help others. You'll be well rewarded.
This is better than crafting candle-like content that fizzles out quickly.
Is beauty really ephemeral like how flowers bloom? Nah, I prefer watching forests grow instead (:
