The latest “bubble indicator” readings.
As you know, I like to turn my intuition into decision rules (principles) that can be back-tested and automated to create a portfolio of alpha bets. I use one for bubbles. Having seen many bubbles in my 50+ years of investing, I described what makes a bubble and how to identify them in markets—not just stocks.
A bubble market has a high degree of the following:
- High prices compared to traditional values (e.g., by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates).
- Conditons incompatible with long-term growth (e.g., extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle).
- Many new and inexperienced buyers were drawn in by the perceived hot market.
- Broad bullish sentiment.
- Debt financing a large portion of purchases.
- Lots of forward and speculative purchases to profit from price rises (e.g., inventories that are more than needed, contracted forward purchases, etc.).
I use these criteria to assess all markets for bubbles. I have periodically shown you these for stocks and the stock market.
What Was Shown in January Versus Now
I will first describe the picture in words, then show it in charts, and compare it to the last update in January.
As of January, the bubble indicator showed that a) the US equity market was in a moderate bubble, but not an extreme one (ie., 70 percent of way toward the highest bubble, which occurred in the late 1990s and late 1920s), and b) the emerging tech companies (ie. As well, the unprecedented flood of liquidity post-COVID financed other bubbly behavior (e.g. SPACs, IPO boom, big pickup in options activity), making things bubbly. I showed which stocks were in bubbles and created an index of those stocks, which I call “bubble stocks.”
Those bubble stocks have popped. They fell by a third last year, while the S&P 500 remained flat. In light of these and other market developments, it is not necessarily true that now is a good time to buy emerging tech stocks.
The fact that they aren't at a bubble extreme doesn't mean they are safe or that it's a good time to get long. Our metrics still show that US stocks are overvalued. Once popped, bubbles tend to overcorrect to the downside rather than settle at “normal” prices.
The following charts paint the picture. The first shows the US equity market bubble gauge/indicator going back to 1900, currently at the 40% percentile. The charts also zoom in on the gauge in recent years, as well as the late 1920s and late 1990s bubbles (during both of these cases the gauge reached 100 percent ).
The chart below depicts the average bubble gauge for the most bubbly companies in 2020. Those readings are down significantly.
The charts below compare the performance of a basket of emerging tech bubble stocks to the S&P 500. Prices have fallen noticeably, giving up most of their post-COVID gains.
The following charts show the price action of the bubble slice today and in the 1920s and 1990s. These charts show the same market dynamics and two key indicators. These are just two examples of how a lot of debt financing stock ownership coupled with a tightening typically leads to a bubble popping.
Everything driving the bubbles in this market segment is classic—the same drivers that drove the 1920s bubble and the 1990s bubble. For instance, in the last couple months, it was how tightening can act to prick the bubble. Review this case study of the 1920s stock bubble (starting on page 49) from my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises to grasp these dynamics.
The following charts show the components of the US stock market bubble gauge. Since this is a proprietary indicator, I will only show you some of the sub-aggregate readings and some indicators.
Each of these six influences is measured using a number of stats. This is how I approach the stock market. These gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole. The table below shows the current readings of these US equity market indicators. It compares current conditions for US equities to historical conditions. These readings suggest that we’re out of a bubble.
1. How High Are Prices Relatively?
This price gauge for US equities is currently around the 50th percentile.
2. Is price reduction unsustainable?
This measure calculates the earnings growth rate required to outperform bonds. This is calculated by adding up the readings of individual securities. This indicator is currently near the 60th percentile for the overall market, higher than some of our other readings. Profit growth discounted in stocks remains high.
Even more so in the US software sector. Analysts' earnings growth expectations for this sector have slowed, but remain high historically. P/Es have reversed COVID gains but remain high historical.
3. How many new buyers (i.e., non-existing buyers) entered the market?
Expansion of new entrants is often indicative of a bubble. According to historical accounts, this was true in the 1990s equity bubble and the 1929 bubble (though our data for this and other gauges doesn't go back that far). A flood of new retail investors into popular stocks, which by other measures appeared to be in a bubble, pushed this gauge above the 90% mark in 2020. The pace of retail activity in the markets has recently slowed to pre-COVID levels.
4. How Broadly Bullish Is Sentiment?
The more people who have invested, the less resources they have to keep investing, and the more likely they are to sell. Market sentiment is now significantly negative.
5. Are Purchases Being Financed by High Leverage?
Leveraged purchases weaken the buying foundation and expose it to forced selling in a downturn. The leverage gauge, which considers option positions as a form of leverage, is now around the 50% mark.
6. To What Extent Have Buyers Made Exceptionally Extended Forward Purchases?
Looking at future purchases can help assess whether expectations have become overly optimistic. This indicator is particularly useful in commodity and real estate markets, where forward purchases are most obvious. In the equity markets, I look at indicators like capital expenditure, or how much businesses (and governments) invest in infrastructure, factories, etc. It reflects whether businesses are projecting future demand growth. Like other gauges, this one is at the 40th percentile.
What one does with it is a tactical choice. While the reversal has been significant, future earnings discounting remains high historically. In either case, bubbles tend to overcorrect (sell off more than the fundamentals suggest) rather than simply deflate. But I wanted to share these updated readings with you in light of recent market activity.
More on Economics & Investing
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Adam Hayes
3 years ago
Bernard Lawrence "Bernie" Madoff, the largest Ponzi scheme in history
Madoff who?
Bernie Madoff ran the largest Ponzi scheme in history, defrauding thousands of investors over at least 17 years, and possibly longer. He pioneered electronic trading and chaired Nasdaq in the 1990s. On April 14, 2021, he died while serving a 150-year sentence for money laundering, securities fraud, and other crimes.
Understanding Madoff
Madoff claimed to generate large, steady returns through a trading strategy called split-strike conversion, but he simply deposited client funds into a single bank account and paid out existing clients. He funded redemptions by attracting new investors and their capital, but the market crashed in late 2008. He confessed to his sons, who worked at his firm, on Dec. 10, 2008. Next day, they turned him in. The fund reported $64.8 billion in client assets.
Madoff pleaded guilty to 11 federal felony counts, including securities fraud, wire fraud, mail fraud, perjury, and money laundering. Ponzi scheme became a symbol of Wall Street's greed and dishonesty before the financial crisis. Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison and ordered to forfeit $170 billion, but no other Wall Street figures faced legal ramifications.
Bernie Madoff's Brief Biography
Bernie Madoff was born in Queens, New York, on April 29, 1938. He began dating Ruth (née Alpern) when they were teenagers. Madoff told a journalist by phone from prison that his father's sporting goods store went bankrupt during the Korean War: "You watch your father, who you idolize, build a big business and then lose everything." Madoff was determined to achieve "lasting success" like his father "whatever it took," but his career had ups and downs.
Early Madoff investments
At 22, he started Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC. First, he traded penny stocks with $5,000 he earned installing sprinklers and as a lifeguard. Family and friends soon invested with him. Madoff's bets soured after the "Kennedy Slide" in 1962, and his father-in-law had to bail him out.
Madoff felt he wasn't part of the Wall Street in-crowd. "We weren't NYSE members," he told Fishman. "It's obvious." According to Madoff, he was a scrappy market maker. "I was happy to take the crumbs," he told Fishman, citing a client who wanted to sell eight bonds; a bigger firm would turn it down.
Recognition
Success came when he and his brother Peter built electronic trading capabilities, or "artificial intelligence," that attracted massive order flow and provided market insights. "I had all these major banks coming down, entertaining me," Madoff told Fishman. "It was mind-bending."
By the late 1980s, he and four other Wall Street mainstays processed half of the NYSE's order flow. Controversially, he paid for much of it, and by the late 1980s, Madoff was making in the vicinity of $100 million a year. He was Nasdaq chairman from 1990 to 1993.
Madoff's Ponzi scheme
It is not certain exactly when Madoff's Ponzi scheme began. He testified in court that it began in 1991, but his account manager, Frank DiPascali, had been at the firm since 1975.
Why Madoff did the scheme is unclear. "I had enough money to support my family's lifestyle. "I don't know why," he told Fishman." Madoff could have won Wall Street's respect as a market maker and electronic trading pioneer.
Madoff told Fishman he wasn't solely responsible for the fraud. "I let myself be talked into something, and that's my fault," he said, without saying who convinced him. "I thought I could escape eventually. I thought it'd be quick, but I couldn't."
Carl Shapiro, Jeffry Picower, Stanley Chais, and Norm Levy have been linked to Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC for years. Madoff's scheme made these men hundreds of millions of dollars in the 1960s and 1970s.
Madoff told Fishman, "Everyone was greedy, everyone wanted to go on." He says the Big Four and others who pumped client funds to him, outsourcing their asset management, must have suspected his returns or should have. "How can you make 15%-18% when everyone else is making less?" said Madoff.
How Madoff Got Away with It for So Long
Madoff's high returns made clients look the other way. He deposited their money in a Chase Manhattan Bank account, which merged to become JPMorgan Chase & Co. in 2000. The bank may have made $483 million from those deposits, so it didn't investigate.
When clients redeemed their investments, Madoff funded the payouts with new capital he attracted by promising unbelievable returns and earning his victims' trust. Madoff created an image of exclusivity by turning away clients. This model let half of Madoff's investors profit. These investors must pay into a victims' fund for defrauded investors.
Madoff wooed investors with his philanthropy. He defrauded nonprofits, including the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Peace and Hadassah. He approached congregants through his friendship with J. Ezra Merkin, a synagogue officer. Madoff allegedly stole $1 billion to $2 billion from his investors.
Investors believed Madoff for several reasons:
- His public portfolio seemed to be blue-chip stocks.
- His returns were high (10-20%) but consistent and not outlandish. In a 1992 interview with Madoff, the Wall Street Journal reported: "[Madoff] insists the returns were nothing special, given that the S&P 500-stock index returned 16.3% annually from 1982 to 1992. 'I'd be surprised if anyone thought matching the S&P over 10 years was remarkable,' he says.
- "He said he was using a split-strike collar strategy. A collar protects underlying shares by purchasing an out-of-the-money put option.
SEC inquiry
The Securities and Exchange Commission had been investigating Madoff and his securities firm since 1999, which frustrated many after he was prosecuted because they felt the biggest damage could have been prevented if the initial investigations had been rigorous enough.
Harry Markopolos was a whistleblower. In 1999, he figured Madoff must be lying in an afternoon. The SEC ignored his first Madoff complaint in 2000.
Markopolos wrote to the SEC in 2005: "The largest Ponzi scheme is Madoff Securities. This case has no SEC reward, so I'm turning it in because it's the right thing to do."
Many believed the SEC's initial investigations could have prevented Madoff's worst damage.
Markopolos found irregularities using a "Mosaic Method." Madoff's firm claimed to be profitable even when the S&P fell, which made no mathematical sense given what he was investing in. Markopolos said Madoff Securities' "undisclosed commissions" were the biggest red flag (1 percent of the total plus 20 percent of the profits).
Markopolos concluded that "investors don't know Bernie Madoff manages their money." Markopolos learned Madoff was applying for large loans from European banks (seemingly unnecessary if Madoff's returns were high).
The regulator asked Madoff for trading account documentation in 2005, after he nearly went bankrupt due to redemptions. The SEC drafted letters to two of the firms on his six-page list but didn't send them. Diana Henriques, author of "The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust," documents the episode.
In 2008, the SEC was criticized for its slow response to Madoff's fraud.
Confession, sentencing of Bernie Madoff
Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC reported 5.6% year-to-date returns in November 2008; the S&P 500 fell 39%. As the selling continued, Madoff couldn't keep up with redemption requests, and on Dec. 10, he confessed to his sons Mark and Andy, who worked at his firm. "After I told them, they left, went to a lawyer, who told them to turn in their father, and I never saw them again. 2008-12-11: Bernie Madoff arrested.
Madoff insists he acted alone, but several of his colleagues were jailed. Mark Madoff died two years after his father's fraud was exposed. Madoff's investors committed suicide. Andy Madoff died of cancer in 2014.
2009 saw Madoff's 150-year prison sentence and $170 billion forfeiture. Marshals sold his three homes and yacht. Prisoner 61727-054 at Butner Federal Correctional Institution in North Carolina.
Madoff's lawyers requested early release on February 5, 2020, claiming he has a terminal kidney disease that may kill him in 18 months. Ten years have passed since Madoff's sentencing.
Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme aftermath
The paper trail of victims' claims shows Madoff's complexity and size. Documents show Madoff's scam began in the 1960s. His final account statements show $47 billion in "profit" from fake trades and shady accounting.
Thousands of investors lost their life savings, and multiple stories detail their harrowing loss.
Irving Picard, a New York lawyer overseeing Madoff's bankruptcy, has helped investors. By December 2018, Picard had recovered $13.3 billion from Ponzi scheme profiteers.
A Madoff Victim Fund (MVF) was created in 2013 to help compensate Madoff's victims, but the DOJ didn't start paying out the $4 billion until late 2017. Richard Breeden, a former SEC chair who oversees the fund, said thousands of claims were from "indirect investors"
Breeden and his team had to reject many claims because they weren't direct victims. Breeden said he based most of his decisions on one simple rule: Did the person invest more than they withdrew? Breeden estimated 11,000 "feeder" investors.
Breeden wrote in a November 2018 update for the Madoff Victim Fund, "We've paid over 27,300 victims 56.65% of their losses, with thousands more to come." In December 2018, 37,011 Madoff victims in the U.S. and around the world received over $2.7 billion. Breeden said the fund expected to make "at least one more significant distribution in 2019"
This post is a summary. Read full article here
Cody Collins
2 years ago
The direction of the economy is as follows.
What quarterly bank earnings reveal
Big banks know the economy best. Unless we’re talking about a housing crisis in 2007…
Banks are crucial to the U.S. economy. The Fed, communities, and investments exchange money.
An economy depends on money flow. Banks' views on the economy can affect their decision-making.
Most large banks released quarterly earnings and forward guidance last week. Others were pessimistic about the future.
What Makes Banks Confident
Bank of America's profit decreased 30% year-over-year, but they're optimistic about the economy. Comparatively, they're bullish.
Who banks serve affects what they see. Bank of America supports customers.
They think consumers' future is bright. They believe this for many reasons.
The average customer has decent credit, unless the system is flawed. Bank of America's new credit card and mortgage borrowers averaged 771. New-car loan and home equity borrower averages were 791 and 797.
2008's housing crisis affected people with scores below 620.
Bank of America and the economy benefit from a robust consumer. Major problems can be avoided if individuals maintain spending.
Reasons Other Banks Are Less Confident
Spending requires income. Many companies, mostly in the computer industry, have announced they will slow or freeze hiring. Layoffs are frequently an indication of poor times ahead.
BOA is positive, but investment banks are bearish.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, outlined various difficulties our economy could confront.
But geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity, combined with the war in Ukraine and its harmful effect on global energy and food prices are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road.
That's more headwinds than tailwinds.
JPMorgan, which helps with mergers and IPOs, is less enthusiastic due to these concerns. Incoming headwinds signal drying liquidity, they say. Less business will be done.
Final Reflections
I don't think we're done. Yes, stocks are up 10% from a month ago. It's a long way from old highs.
I don't think the stock market is a strong economic indicator.
Many executives foresee a 2023 recession. According to the traditional definition, we may be in a recession when Q2 GDP statistics are released next week.
Regardless of criteria, I predict the economy will have a terrible year.
Weekly layoffs are announced. Inflation persists. Will prices return to 2020 levels if inflation cools? Perhaps. Still expensive energy. Ukraine's war has global repercussions.
I predict BOA's next quarter earnings won't be as bullish about the consumer's strength.
Sofien Kaabar, CFA
2 years ago
Innovative Trading Methods: The Catapult Indicator
Python Volatility-Based Catapult Indicator
As a catapult, this technical indicator uses three systems: Volatility (the fulcrum), Momentum (the propeller), and a Directional Filter (Acting as the support). The goal is to get a signal that predicts volatility acceleration and direction based on historical patterns. We want to know when the market will move. and where. This indicator outperforms standard indicators.
Knowledge must be accessible to everyone. This is why my new publications Contrarian Trading Strategies in Python and Trend Following Strategies in Python now include free PDF copies of my first three books (Therefore, purchasing one of the new books gets you 4 books in total). GitHub-hosted advanced indications and techniques are in the two new books above.
The Foundation: Volatility
The Catapult predicts significant changes with the 21-period Relative Volatility Index.
The Average True Range, Mean Absolute Deviation, and Standard Deviation all assess volatility. Standard Deviation will construct the Relative Volatility Index.
Standard Deviation is the most basic volatility. It underpins descriptive statistics and technical indicators like Bollinger Bands. Before calculating Standard Deviation, let's define Variance.
Variance is the squared deviations from the mean (a dispersion measure). We take the square deviations to compel the distance from the mean to be non-negative, then we take the square root to make the measure have the same units as the mean, comparing apples to apples (mean to standard deviation standard deviation). Variance formula:
As stated, standard deviation is:
# The function to add a number of columns inside an array
def adder(Data, times):
for i in range(1, times + 1):
new_col = np.zeros((len(Data), 1), dtype = float)
Data = np.append(Data, new_col, axis = 1)
return Data
# The function to delete a number of columns starting from an index
def deleter(Data, index, times):
for i in range(1, times + 1):
Data = np.delete(Data, index, axis = 1)
return Data
# The function to delete a number of rows from the beginning
def jump(Data, jump):
Data = Data[jump:, ]
return Data
# Example of adding 3 empty columns to an array
my_ohlc_array = adder(my_ohlc_array, 3)
# Example of deleting the 2 columns after the column indexed at 3
my_ohlc_array = deleter(my_ohlc_array, 3, 2)
# Example of deleting the first 20 rows
my_ohlc_array = jump(my_ohlc_array, 20)
# Remember, OHLC is an abbreviation of Open, High, Low, and Close and it refers to the standard historical data file
def volatility(Data, lookback, what, where):
for i in range(len(Data)):
try:
Data[i, where] = (Data[i - lookback + 1:i + 1, what].std())
except IndexError:
pass
return Data
The RSI is the most popular momentum indicator, and for good reason—it excels in range markets. Its 0–100 range simplifies interpretation. Fame boosts its potential.
The more traders and portfolio managers look at the RSI, the more people will react to its signals, pushing market prices. Technical Analysis is self-fulfilling, therefore this theory is obvious yet unproven.
RSI is determined simply. Start with one-period pricing discrepancies. We must remove each closing price from the previous one. We then divide the smoothed average of positive differences by the smoothed average of negative differences. The RSI algorithm converts the Relative Strength from the last calculation into a value between 0 and 100.
def ma(Data, lookback, close, where):
Data = adder(Data, 1)
for i in range(len(Data)):
try:
Data[i, where] = (Data[i - lookback + 1:i + 1, close].mean())
except IndexError:
pass
# Cleaning
Data = jump(Data, lookback)
return Data
def ema(Data, alpha, lookback, what, where):
alpha = alpha / (lookback + 1.0)
beta = 1 - alpha
# First value is a simple SMA
Data = ma(Data, lookback, what, where)
# Calculating first EMA
Data[lookback + 1, where] = (Data[lookback + 1, what] * alpha) + (Data[lookback, where] * beta)
# Calculating the rest of EMA
for i in range(lookback + 2, len(Data)):
try:
Data[i, where] = (Data[i, what] * alpha) + (Data[i - 1, where] * beta)
except IndexError:
pass
return Datadef rsi(Data, lookback, close, where, width = 1, genre = 'Smoothed'):
# Adding a few columns
Data = adder(Data, 7)
# Calculating Differences
for i in range(len(Data)):
Data[i, where] = Data[i, close] - Data[i - width, close]
# Calculating the Up and Down absolute values
for i in range(len(Data)):
if Data[i, where] > 0:
Data[i, where + 1] = Data[i, where]
elif Data[i, where] < 0:
Data[i, where + 2] = abs(Data[i, where])
# Calculating the Smoothed Moving Average on Up and Down
absolute values
lookback = (lookback * 2) - 1 # From exponential to smoothed
Data = ema(Data, 2, lookback, where + 1, where + 3)
Data = ema(Data, 2, lookback, where + 2, where + 4)
# Calculating the Relative Strength
Data[:, where + 5] = Data[:, where + 3] / Data[:, where + 4]
# Calculate the Relative Strength Index
Data[:, where + 6] = (100 - (100 / (1 + Data[:, where + 5])))
# Cleaning
Data = deleter(Data, where, 6)
Data = jump(Data, lookback)
return Data
def relative_volatility_index(Data, lookback, close, where):
# Calculating Volatility
Data = volatility(Data, lookback, close, where)
# Calculating the RSI on Volatility
Data = rsi(Data, lookback, where, where + 1)
# Cleaning
Data = deleter(Data, where, 1)
return DataThe Arm Section: Speed
The Catapult predicts momentum direction using the 14-period Relative Strength Index.
As a reminder, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. Two levels give contrarian signals:
A positive response is anticipated when the market is deemed to have gone too far down at the oversold level 30, which is 30.
When the market is deemed to have gone up too much, at overbought level 70, a bearish reaction is to be expected.
Comparing the RSI to 50 is another intriguing use. RSI above 50 indicates bullish momentum, while below 50 indicates negative momentum.
The direction-finding filter in the frame
The Catapult's directional filter uses the 200-period simple moving average to keep us trending. This keeps us sane and increases our odds.
Moving averages confirm and ride trends. Its simplicity and track record of delivering value to analysis make them the most popular technical indicator. They help us locate support and resistance, stops and targets, and the trend. Its versatility makes them essential trading tools.
This is the plain mean, employed in statistics and everywhere else in life. Simply divide the number of observations by their total values. Mathematically, it's:
We defined the moving average function above. Create the Catapult indication now.
Indicator of the Catapult
The indicator is a healthy mix of the three indicators:
The first trigger will be provided by the 21-period Relative Volatility Index, which indicates that there will now be above average volatility and, as a result, it is possible for a directional shift.
If the reading is above 50, the move is likely bullish, and if it is below 50, the move is likely bearish, according to the 14-period Relative Strength Index, which indicates the likelihood of the direction of the move.
The likelihood of the move's direction will be strengthened by the 200-period simple moving average. When the market is above the 200-period moving average, we can infer that bullish pressure is there and that the upward trend will likely continue. Similar to this, if the market falls below the 200-period moving average, we recognize that there is negative pressure and that the downside is quite likely to continue.
lookback_rvi = 21
lookback_rsi = 14
lookback_ma = 200
my_data = ma(my_data, lookback_ma, 3, 4)
my_data = rsi(my_data, lookback_rsi, 3, 5)
my_data = relative_volatility_index(my_data, lookback_rvi, 3, 6)Two-handled overlay indicator Catapult. The first exhibits blue and green arrows for a buy signal, and the second shows blue and red for a sell signal.
The chart below shows recent EURUSD hourly values.
def signal(Data, rvi_col, signal):
Data = adder(Data, 10)
for i in range(len(Data)):
if Data[i, rvi_col] < 30 and \
Data[i - 1, rvi_col] > 30 and \
Data[i - 2, rvi_col] > 30 and \
Data[i - 3, rvi_col] > 30 and \
Data[i - 4, rvi_col] > 30 and \
Data[i - 5, rvi_col] > 30:
Data[i, signal] = 1
return Data
Signals are straightforward. The indicator can be utilized with other methods.
my_data = signal(my_data, 6, 7)
Lumiwealth shows how to develop all kinds of algorithms. I recommend their hands-on courses in algorithmic trading, blockchain, and machine learning.
Summary
To conclude, my goal is to contribute to objective technical analysis, which promotes more transparent methods and strategies that must be back-tested before implementation. Technical analysis will lose its reputation as subjective and unscientific.
After you find a trading method or approach, follow these steps:
Put emotions aside and adopt an analytical perspective.
Test it in the past in conditions and simulations taken from real life.
Try improving it and performing a forward test if you notice any possibility.
Transaction charges and any slippage simulation should always be included in your tests.
Risk management and position sizing should always be included in your tests.
After checking the aforementioned, monitor the plan because market dynamics may change and render it unprofitable.
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Steve QJ
3 years ago
Putin's War On Reality
The dictator's playbook.
Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev, delivered a speech titled "On The Cult Of Personality And Its Consequences" in 1956, three years after Stalin’s death.
It was Stalin's grave abuse of power that caused untold harm to our party.
Stalin acted not by persuasion, explanation, or patient cooperation, but by imposing his ideas and demanding absolute obedience. […]
See where Stalin's mania for greatness led? He had lost all sense of reality.
The speech, which was never made public, shook the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc. After Stalin's "cult of personality" was exposed as a lie, only reality remained.
As I've watched the nightmare unfold in Ukraine, I'm reminded of that question. Primarily by Putin's repeated denials.
His odd claim that Ukraine is run by drug addicts and Nazis (especially strange given that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, is Jewish). Others attempt to portray Russia as liberators rather than occupiers. For example, he portrays Luhansk and Donetsk as plucky, newly independent states when they have been totalitarian statelets for 8 years.
Putin seemed to have lost all sense of reality.
Maybe that's why his remarks to an oligarchs' gathering stood out:
Everything is a desperate measure. They gave us no choice. We couldn't do anything about their security risks. […] They could have put the country in jeopardy.
This is almost certainly true from Putin's perspective. Even for Putin, a military invasion seems unlikely. So, what exactly is putting Russia's security in jeopardy? How could Ukraine's independence endanger Russia's existence?
The truth is the only thing that truly terrifies leaders like these.
Trump, the president of “alternative facts,” "and “fake news” praised Putin's fabricated justifications for the Ukraine invasion. Russia tightened news censorship as news of their losses came in. It's no accident that modern dictatorships like Russia (and China and North Korea) restrict citizens' access to information.
Controlling what people see, hear, and think is the simplest method. And Ukraine's recent efforts to join the European Union showed a country whose thoughts Putin couldn't control. With the Russian and Ukrainian peoples so close, he could not control their reality.
He appears to think this is a threat worth fighting NATO over.
It's easy to disown history's great dictators. By the magnitude of their harm. But the strategy they used is still in use today, albeit not to the same devastating effect.
The Kim dynasty in North Korea has ruled for 74 years, Putin has ruled Russia for 19 years (using loopholes and even rewriting the constitution).
“Politicians and diapers must be changed frequently,” said Mark Twain. "And for the same reason.”
When their egos are threatened, they sabre-rattle, as in Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump's famous spat about the size of their...ahem, “nuclear buttons”." Or Putin's threats of mutual destruction this weekend.
Most importantly, they have cult-like control over their followers.
When a leader whose power is built on lies feels he is losing control of the narrative, things like Trump's Jan. 6 meltdown and Putin's current actions in Ukraine are unavoidable.
Leaders who try to control their people's reality will have to die to keep the illusion alive.
Long version of this post available here
Sea Launch
3 years ago
📖 Guide to NFT terms: an NFT glossary.
NFT lingo can be overwhelming. As the NFT market matures and expands so does its own jargon, slang, colloquialisms or acronyms.
This ever-growing NFT glossary goal is to unpack key NFT terms to help you better understand the NFT market or at least not feel like a total n00b in a conversation about NFTs on Reddit, Discord or Twitter.
#
1:1 Art
Art where each piece is one of a kind (1 of 1). Unlike 10K projects, PFP or Generative Art collections have a cap of NFTs released that can range from a few hundreds to 10K.
1/1 of X
Contrary to 1:1 Art, 1/1 of X means each NFT is unique, but part of a large and cohesive collection. E.g: Fidenzas by Tyler Hobbs or Crypto Punks (each Punk is 1/1 of 10,000).
10K Project
A type of NFT collection that consists of approximately 10,000 NFTs (but not strictly).
A
AB
ArtBlocks, the most important platform for generative art currently.
AFAIK
As Far As I Know.
Airdrop
Distribution of an NFT token directly into a crypto wallet for free. Can be used as a marketing campaign or as scam by airdropping fake tokens to empty someone’s wallet.
Alpha
The first or very primitive release of a project. Or Investment term to track how a certain investment outdoes the market. E.g: Alpha of 1.0 = 1% improvement or Alpha of 20.0 = 20% improvement.
Altcoin
Any other crypto that is not Bitcoin. Bitcoin Maximalists can also refer to them as shitcoins.
AMA
Ask Me Anything. NFT creators or artists do sessions where anyone can ask questions about the NFT project, team, vision, etc. Usually hosted on Discord, but also on Reddit or even Youtube.
Ape
Someone can be aping, ape in or aped on an NFT meaning someone is taking a large position relative to its own portfolio size. Some argue that when someone apes can mean that they're following the hype, out of FOMO or without due diligence. Not related directly to the Bored Ape Yatch Club.
ATH
All-Time High. When a NFT project or token reaches the highest price to date.
Avatar project
An NFT collection that consists of avatars that people can use as their profile picture (see PFP) in social media to show they are part of an NFT community like Crypto Punks.
Axie Infinity
ETH blockchain-based game where players battle and trade Axies (digital pets). The main ERC-20 tokens used are Axie Infinity Shards (AXS) and Smooth Love Potions (formerly Small Love Potion) (SLP).
Axie Infinity Shards
AXS is an Eth token that powers the Axie Infinity game.
B
Bag Holder
Someone who holds its position in a crypto or keeps an NFT until it's worthless.
BAYC
Bored Ape Yacht Club. A very successful PFP 1/1 of 10,000 individual ape characters collection. People use BAYC as a Twitter profile picture to brag about being part of this NFT community.
Bearish
Borrowed finance slang meaning someone is doubtful about the current market and that it will crash.
Bear Market
When the Crypto or NFT market is going down in value.
Bitcoin (BTC)
First and original cryptocurrency as outlined in a whitepaper by the anonymous creator(s) Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin Maximalist
Believer that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency needed. All other cryptocurrencies are altcoins or shitcoins.
Blockchain
Distributed, decentralized, immutable database that is the basis of trust in Web 3.0 technology.
Bluechip
When an NFT project has a long track record of success and its value is sustained over time, therefore considered a solid investment.
BTD
Buy The Dip. A bear market can be an opportunity for crypto investors to buy a crypto or NFT at a lower price.
Bullish
Borrowed finance slang meaning someone is optimistic that a market will increase in value aka moon.
Bull market
When the Crypto or NFT market is going up and up in value.
Burn
Common crypto strategy to destroy or delete tokens from the circulation supply intentionally and permanently in order to limit supply and increase the value.
Buying on secondary
Whenever you don’t mint an NFT directly from the project, you can always buy it in secondary NFT marketplaces like OpenSea. Most NFT sales are secondary market sales.
C
Cappin or Capping
Slang for lying or faking. Opposed to no cap which means “no lie”.
Coinbase
Nasdaq listed US cryptocurrency exchange. Coinbase Wallet is one of Coinbase’s products where users can use a Chrome extension or app hot wallet to store crypto and NFTs.
Cold wallet
Otherwise called hardware wallet or cold storage. It’s a physical device to store your cryptocurrencies and/or NFTs offline. They are not connected to the Internet so are at less risk of being compromised.
Collection
A set of NFTs under a common theme as part of a NFT drop or an auction sale in marketplaces like OpenSea or Rarible.
Collectible
A collectible is an NFT that is a part of a wider NFT collection, usually part of a 10k project, PFP project or NFT Game.
Collector
Someone who buys NFTs to build an NFT collection, be part of a NFT community or for speculative purposes to make a profit.
Cope
The opposite of FOMO. When someone doesn’t buy an NFT because one is still dealing with a previous mistake of not FOMOing at a fraction of the price. So choosing to stay out.
Consensus mechanism
Method of authenticating and validating a transaction on a blockchain without the need to trust or rely on a central authority. Examples of consensus mechanisms are Proof of Work (PoW) or Proof of Stake (PoS).
Cozomo de’ Medici
Twitter alias used by Snoop Dogg for crypto and NFT chat.
Creator
An NFT creator is a person that creates the asset for the NFT idea, vision and in many cases the art (e.g. a jpeg, audio file, video file).
Crowsale
Where a crowdsale is the sale of a token that will be used in the business, an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) is the sale of a token that’s linked to the value of the business. Buying an ICO token is akin to buying stock in the company because it entitles you a share of the earnings and profits. Also, some tokens give you voting rights similar to holding stock in the business. The US Securities and Exchange Commission recently ruled that ICOs, but not crowdselling, will be treated as the sale of a security. This basically means that all ICOs must be registered like IPOs and offered only to accredited investors. This dramatically increases the costs and limits the pool of potential buyers.
Crypto Bags/Bags
Refers to how much cryptocurrencies someone holds, as in their bag of coins.
Cryptocurrency
The native coin of a blockchain (or protocol coin), secured by cryptography to be exchanged within a Peer 2 Peer economic system. E.g: Bitcoin (BTC) for the Bitcoin blockchain, Ether (ETH) for the Ethereum blockchain, etc.
Crypto community
The community of a specific crypto or NFT project. NFT communities use Twitter and Discord as their primary social media to hang out.
Crypto exchange
Where someone can buy, sell or trade cryptocurrencies and tokens.
Cryptography
The foundation of blockchain technology. The use of mathematical theory and computer science to encrypt or decrypt information.
CryptoKitties
One of the first and most popular NFT based blockchain games. In 2017, the NFT project almost broke the Ethereum blockchain and increased the gas prices dramatically.
CryptoPunk
Currently one of the most valuable blue chip NFT projects. It was created by Larva Labs. Crypto Punk holders flex their NFT as their profile picture on Twitter.
CT
Crypto Twitter, the crypto-community on Twitter.
Cypherpunks
Movement in the 1980s, advocating for the use of strong cryptography and privacy-enhancing technologies as a route to social and political change. The movement contributed and shaped blockchain tech as we know today.
D
DAO
Stands for Decentralized Autonomous Organization. When a NFT project is structured like a DAO, it grants all the NFT holders voting rights, control over future actions and the NFT’s project direction and vision. Many NFT projects are also organized as DAO to be a community-driven project.
Dapp
Mobile or web based decentralized application that interacts on a blockchain via smart contracts. E.g: Dapp is the frontend and the smart contract is the backend.
DCA
Acronym for Dollar Cost Averaging. An investment strategy to reduce the impact of crypto market volatility. E.g: buying into a crypto asset on a regular monthly basis rather than a big one time purchase.
Ded
Abbreviation for dead like "I sold my Punk for 90 ETH. I am ded."
DeFi
Short for Decentralized Finance. Blockchain alternative for traditional finance, where intermediaries like banks or brokerages are replaced by smart contracts to offer financial services like trading, lending, earning interest, insure, etc.
Degen
Short for degenerate, a gambler who buys into unaudited or unknown NFT or DeFi projects, without proper research hoping to chase high profits.
Delist
No longer offer an NFT for sale on a secondary market like Opensea. NFT Marketplaces can delist an NFT that infringes their rules. Or NFT owners can choose to delist their NFTs (has long as they have sufficient funds for the gas fees) due to price surges to avoid their NFT being bought or sold for a higher price.
Derivative
Projects derived from the original project that reinforces the value and importance of the original NFT. E.g: "alternative" punks.
Dev
A skilled professional who can build NFT projects using smart contracts and blockchain technology.
Dex
Decentralised Exchange that allows for peer-to-peer trustless transactions that don’t rely on a centralized authority to take place. E.g: Uniswap, PancakeSwap, dYdX, Curve Finance, SushiSwap, 1inch, etc.
Diamond Hands
Someone who believes and holds a cryptocurrency or NFT regardless of the crypto or NFT market fluctuations.
Discord
Chat app heavily used by crypto and NFT communities for knowledge sharing and shilling.
DLT
Acronym for Distributed Ledger Technology. It’s a protocol that allows the secure functioning of a decentralized database, through cryptography. This technological infrastructure scraps the need for a central authority to keep in check manipulation or exploitation of the network.
Dog coin
It’s a memecoin based on the Japanese dog breed, Shiba Inu, first popularised by Dogecoin. Other notable coins are Shiba Inu or Floki Inu. These dog coins are frequently subjected to pump and dumps and are extremely volatile. The original dog coin DOGE was created as a joke in 2013. Elon Musk is one of Dogecoin's most famous supporters.
Doxxed/Doxed
When the identity of an NFT team member, dev or creator is public, known or verifiable. In the NFT market, when a NFT team is doxed it’s a usually sign of confidence and transparency for NFT collectors to ensure they will not be scammed for an anonymous creator.
Drop
The release of an NFT (single or collection) into the NFT market.
DYOR
Acronym for Do Your Own Research. A common expression used in the crypto or NFT community to disclaim responsibility for the financial/strategy advice someone is providing the community and to avoid being called out by others in theNFT or crypto community.
E
EIP-1559 EIP
Referring to Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, commonly known as the London Fork. It’s an upgrade to the Ethereum protocol code to improve the blockchain security and scalability. The major change consists in shifting from a proof-of-work consensus mechanism (PoW) to a low energy and lower gas fees proof-of-stake system (PoS).
ERC-1155
Stands for Ethereum Request for Comment-1155. A multi-token standard that can represent any number of fungible (ERC-20) and non-fungible tokens (ERC-721).
ERC-20
Ethereum Request for Comment-20 is a standard defining a fungible token like a cryptocurrency.
ERC-721
Ethereum Request for Comment-721 is a standard defining a non-fungible token (NFT).
ETH
Aka Ether, the currency symbol for the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain.
ETH2.0
Also known as the London Fork or EIP-1559 EIP. It’s an upgrade to the Ethereum network to improve the network’s security and scalability. The most dramatic change is the shift from the proof-of-work consensus mechanism (PoW) to proof-of-stake system (PoS).
Ether
Or ETH, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain.
Ethereum
Network protocol that allows users to create and run smart contracts over a decentralized network.
F
FCFS
Acronym for First Come First Served. Commonly used strategy in a NFT collection drop when the demand surpasses the supply.
Few
Short for "few understand". Similar to the irony behind the "probably nothing" expression. Like X person bought into a popular NFT, because it understands its long term value.
Fiat Currencies or Money
National government-issued currencies like the US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR) or Great British Pound (GBP) that are not backed by a commodity like silver or gold. FIAT means an authoritative or arbitrary order like a government decree.
Flex
Slang for showing off. In the crypto community, it’s a Lamborghini or a gold Rolex. In the NFT world, it’s a CryptoPunk or BAYC PFP on Twitter.
Flip
Quickly buying and selling crypto or NFTs to make a profit.
Flippening
Colloquial expression coined in 2017 for when Ethereum’s market capitalisation surpasses Bitcoin’s.
Floor Price
It means the lowest asking price for an NFT collection or subset of a collection on a secondary market like OpenSea.
Floor Sweep
Refers when a NFT collector or investor buys all the lowest listed NFTs on a secondary NFT marketplace.
FOMO
Acronym for Fear Of Missing Out. Buying a crypto or NFT out of fear of missing out on the next big thing.
FOMO-in
Buying a crypto or NFT regardless if it's at the top of the market for FOMO.
Fractionalize
Turning one NFT like a Crypto Punk into X number of fractions ERC-20 tokens that prove ownership of that Punk. This allows for i) collective ownership of an NFT, ii) making an expensive NFT affordable for the common NFT collector and iii) adds more liquidity to a very illiquid NFT market.
FR
Abbreviation for For Real?
Fren
Means Friend and what people in the NFT community call each other in an endearing and positive way.
Foundation
An exclusive, by invitation only, NFT marketplace that specializes in NFT art.
Fungible
Means X can be traded for another X and still hold the same value. E.g: My dollars = your dollars. My 1 ether = your 1 ether. My casino chip = your casino chip. On Ethereum, fungible tokens are defined by the ERC-20 standard.
FUD
Acronym for Fear Uncertainty Doubt. It can be a) when someone spreads negative and sometimes false news to discredit a certain crypto or NFT project. Or b) the overall negative feeling regarding the future of the NFT/Crypto project or market, especially when going through a bear market.
Fudder
Someone who has FUD or engages in FUD about a NFT project.
Fudding your own bags
When an NFT collector or crypto investor speaks negatively about an NFT or crypto project he/she has invested in or has a stake in. Usually negative comments about the team or vision.
G
G
Means Gangster. A term of endearment used amongst the NFT Community.
Gas/Gas fees/Gas prices
The fee charged to complete a transaction in a blockchain. These gas prices vary tremendously between the blockchains, the consensus mechanism used to validate transactions or the number of transactions being made at a specific time.
Gas war
When a lot of NFT collectors (or bots) are trying to mint an NFT at once and therefore resulting in gas price surge.
Generative art
Artwork that is algorithmically created by code with unique traits and rarity.
Genesis drop
It refers to the first NFT drop a creator makes on an NFT auction platform.
GG
Interjection for Good Game.
GM
Interjection for Good Morning.
GMI
Acronym for Going to Make It. Opposite of NGMI (NOT Going to Make It).
GOAT
Acronym for Greatest Of All Time.
GTD
Acronym for Going To Dust. When a token or NFT project turns out to be a bad investment.
GTFO
Get The F*ck Out, as in “gtfo with that fud dude” if someone is talking bull.
GWEI
One billionth of an Ether (ETH) also known as a Shannon / Nanoether / Nano — unit of account used to price Ethereum gas transactions.
H
HEN (Hic Et Nunc)
A popular NFT art marketplace for art built on the Tezos blockchain. Big NFT marketplace for inexpensive NFTs but not a very user-friendly UI/website.
HODL
Misspelling of HOLD coined in an old Reddit post. Synonym with “Hold On for Dear Life” meaning hold your coin or NFT until the end, whether that they’ll moon or dust.
Hot wallet
Wallets connected to the Internet, less secure than cold wallet because they’re more susceptible to hacks.
Hype
Term used to show excitement or anticipation about an upcoming crypto project or NFT.
I
ICO
Acronym for Initial Coin Offering. It’s the crypto equivalent to a stocks’ IPO (Initial Public Offering) but with far less scrutiny or regulation (leading to a lot of scams). ICO’s are a popular way for crypto projects to raise funds.
IDO
Acronym for Initial Dex Offering. To put it simply it means to launch NFTs or tokens via a decentralized liquidity exchange. It’s a common fundraising method used by upcoming crypto or NFT projects. Many consider IDOs a far better fundraising alternative to ICOs.
IDK
Acronym for I Don’t Know.
IDEK
Acronym for I Don’t Even Know.
Imma
Short for I’m going to be.
IRL
Acronym for In Real Life. Refers to the physical world outside of the online/virtual world of crypto, NFTs, gaming or social media.
IPFS
Acronym for Interplanetary File System. A peer-to-peer file storage system using hashes to recall and preserve the integrity of the file, commonly used to store NFTs outside of the blockchain.
It’s Money Laundering
Someone can use this expression to suggest that NFT prices aren’t real and that actually people are using NFTs to launder money, without providing much proof or explanation on how it works.
IYKYK
Stands for If You Know, You Know This. Similar to the expression "few", used when someone buys into a popular crypto or NFT project, slightly because of FOMO but also because it believes in its long term value.
J
JPEG/JPG
File format typically used to encode NFT art. Some people also use Jpeg to mock people buying NFTs as in “All that money for a jpeg”.
K
KMS
Short for Kill MySelf.
L
Larva Labs/ LL
NFT Creators behind the popular NFT projects like Cryptopunks,Meebits or Autoglyphs.
Laser eyes
Bitcoin meme signalling support for BTC and/or it will break the $100k per coin valuation.
LFG
Acronym for Let’s F*cking Go! A common rallying call used in the crypto or NFT community to lead people into buying an NFT or a crypto.
Liquidity
Term that means that a token or NFT has a high volume activity in the crypto/NFT market. It’s easily sold and resold. But usually the NFT market it’s illiquid when compared to the general crypto market, due to the non-fungibility nature of an NFT (there are less buyers for every NFTs out there).
LMFAO
Stands for Laughing My F*cking Ass Off.
Looks Rare
Ironic expression commonly used in the NFT Community. Rarity is a driver of an NFT’s value.
London Hard Fork
Known as EIP-1559, was an Ethereum code upgrade proposal designed to improve the blockchain security and scalability. It’s major change is to shift from PoW to PoS consensus mechanism.
Long run
Means someone is committed to the NFT market or an NFT project in the long term.
M
Maximalist
Typically refers to Bitcoin Maximalists. People who only believe that Bitcoin is the most secure and resilient blockchain. For Maximalists, all other cryptocurrencies are shitcoins therefore a waste of time, development and money.
McDonald's
Common and ironic expression amongst the crypto community. It means that Mcdonald’s is always a valid backup plan or career in the case all cryptocurrencies crash and disappear.
Meatspace
Synonymous with IRL - In Real Life.
Memecoin
Cryptocurrency like Dogecoin that is based on an internet joke or meme.
Metamask
Popular crypto hot wallet platform to store crypto and NFTs.
Metaverse
Term was coined by writer Neal Stephenson in the 1992 dystopian novel “Snow Crash”. It’s an immersive and digital place where people interact via their avatars. Big tech players like Meta (formerly known as Facebook) and other independent players have been designing their own version of a metaverse. NFTs can have utility for users like buying, trading, winning, accessing, experiencing or interacting with things inside a metaverse.
Mfer
Short for “mother fker”.
Miners
Single person or company that mines one or more cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Both blockchains need computing power for their Proof of Work consensus mechanism. Miners provide the computing power and receive coins/tokens in return as payment.
Mining
Mining is the process by which new tokens enter in circulation as for example in the Bitcoin blockchain. Also, mining ensures the validity of new transactions happening in a given blockchain that uses the PoW consensus mechanism. Therefore, the ones who mine are rewarded by ensuring the validity of a blockchain.
Mint/Minting
Mint an NFT is the act of publishing your unique instance to a specific blockchain like Ethereum or Tezos blockchain. In simpler terms, a creator is adding a one-of-kind token (NFT) into circulation in a specific blockchain.
Once the NFT is minted - aka created - NFT collectors can i) direct mint, therefore purchase the NFT by paying the specified amount directly into the project’s wallet. Or ii) buy it via an intermediary like an NFT marketplace (e.g: OpenSea, Foundation, Rarible, etc.). Later, the NFT owner can choose to resell the NFT, most NFT creators set up a royalty for every time their NFT is resold.
Minting interval
How often an NFT creator can mint or create tokens.
MOAR
A misspelling that means “more”.
Moon/Mooning
When a coin (e.g. ETH), or token, like an NFT goes exponential in price and the price graph sees a vertical climb. Crypto or NFT users then use the expression that “X token is going to the moon!”.
Moon boys
Slang for crypto or NFT holders who are looking to pump the price dramatically - taking a token to the moon - for short term gains and with no real long term vision or commitment.
N
Never trust, always verify
Treat everyone or every project like something potentially malicious.
New coiner
Crypto slang for someone new to the cryptocurrency space. Usually newcomers can be more susceptible to FUD or scammers.
NFA
Acronym for Not Financial Advice.
NFT
Acronym for Non-Fungible Token. The type of token that can be created, bought, sold, resold and viewed in different dapps. The ERC-721 smart contract standard (Ethereum blockchain) is the most popular amongst NFTs.
NFT Marketplace / NFT Auction platform
Platforms where people can sell and buy NFTs, either via an auction or pay the seller’s price. The largest NFT marketplace is OpenSea. But there are other popular NFT marketplace examples like Foundation, SuperRare, Nifty Gateway, Rarible, Hic et Nunc (HeN), etc.
NFT Whale
A NFT collector or investor who buys a large amount of NFTs.
NGMI
Acronym for Not Going to Make It. For example, something said to someone who has paper hands.
NMP
Acronym for Not My Problem.
Nocoiner
It can be someone who simply doesn’t hold cryptocurrencies, mistrust the crypto market or believes that crypto is either a scam or a ponzi scheme.
Noob/N00b/Newbie
Slang for someone new or not experienced in cryptocurrency or NFTs. These people are more susceptible to scams, drawn into pump and dumps or getting rekt on bad coins.
Normie/Normy
Similar expression for a nocoiner.
NSFW
Acronym for Not Suitable For Work. Referring to online content inappropriate for viewing in public or at work. It began as mostly a tag for sexual content, nudity, or violence, but it has envolved to range a number of other topics that might be delicate or trigger viewers.
Nuclear NFTs
An NFT or collectible with more than 1,000 owners. For the NFT to be sold or resold, every co-owners must give their permission beforehand. Otherwise, the NFT transaction can’t be made.
O
OG
Acronym for Original Gangster and it popularized by 90s Hip Hop culture. It means the first, the original or the person who has been around since the very start and earned respect in the community. In NFT terms, Cryptopunks are the OG of NFTs.
On-chain vs Off-chain
An on-chain NFT is when the artwork (like a jpeg, video or music file) is stored directly into the blockchain making it more secure and less susceptible to being stolen. But, note that most blockchains can only store small amounts of data.
Off-chain NFTs means that the high quality image, music or video file is not stored in the blockchain. But, the NFT data is stored on an external party like a) a centralized server, highly vulnerable to the server being shut down/exploited. Or b) an InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), also an external party but more secure way of finding data because it utilizes a distributed, decentralized system.
OpenSea
By far the largest NFT marketplace in the world, currently.
P
Paper Hands
A crypto or NFT holder who is permeable to negative market sentiment or FUD. And does not hold their crypto or NFT for long. Expression used to describe someone who sells as soon as NFTs enter a bear market.
PFP
Stands for Picture For Profile. Twitter users who hold popular NFTs like Crypto Punk or BAYC use their punk or monkey avatar as their profile picture.
POAP NFT
Stands for Proof of Attendance Protocol. These types of NFTs are awarded to attendees of events, regardless if they’re physical or virtual, as proof you attended.
PoS
Stands for Proof of Stake. A consensus mechanism used by blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum to achieve agreement, trust and security in every transaction and keep the integrity of the blockchain intact. PoS mechanisms are considered more environmentally friendly than PoW as they’re lower energy and in emissions.
PoW
Stands for Proof of Work. A consensus mechanism used by blockchains like Bitcoin to achieve agreement, trust and security and keep the transactional integrity of the blockchain intact. PoW mechanism requires a lot of computational power, therefore uses more energy resources and higher CO2 emissions than the PoS mechanism.
Private Key
It can be similar to a password. It’s a secret number that allows users to access their cold or hot wallet funds, prove ownership of a certain address and sign transactions on the blockchain.
It’s not advisable to share a private key with anyone as it makes a person vulnerable to thefts. In case someone loses or forgets its private key, it can use a recovery phrase to restore access to a crypto or NFT wallet.
Pre-mine
A term used in crypto to refer to the act of creating a set amount of tokens before their public launch. It can also be known as a Genesis Sale and is usually associated with Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in order to compensate founders, developers or early investors.
Probably nothing
It’s an ironic expression used by NFT enthusiasts to refer to an important or soon to be big news, project or person in the NFT space. Meaning when someone says probably nothing it actually means that it is probably something.
Protocol Coin
Stands for the native coin of a blockchain. As in Ether for the Ethereum blockchain or BTC on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Pump & Dump
The term pump means when a person or a group of people buy or convince others to buy large quantities of a crypto or an NFT with the single goal to drive the price to a peak. When the price peaks, these people sell their position high and for a hefty profit, therefore dumping the price and leaving other slower investors or newbies rekt or at a loss.
R
Rarity
Rarity in NFT terms refers to how rare an NFT is. The rarity can be defined by the number of traits, scarcity or properties of an NFT.
Reaching
Slang for an exaggeration over something to make it sound worse than what it actually is or to take a point/scenario too far.
Recovery phrase
A 12-word phrase that acts like backup for your crypto private keys. A person can recover all of the crypto wallet accounts’ private keys from the recovery phrase. Is not advisable to share the recovery phrase with anyone.
Rekt
Slang for wrecked. When a crypto or NFT project goes wrong or down in value sharply. Or more broadly, when something goes wrong like a person is price out by the gas surge or an NFT floor price goes down.
Right Click Save As
An Ironic expression used by people who don’t understand the value or potential unlocked by NFTs. Person who makes fun that she/he can easily get a digital artwork by Right Click Save As and mock the NFT space and its hype.
Roadmap
The strategy outlined by an NFT project. A way to explain to the NFT community or a potential NFT investor, the different stages, value and the long term vision of the NFT project.
Royalties
NFT creators can set up their NFT so each time their NFT is resold, the creator gets paid a percentage of the sale price.
RN
Acronym for Right Now.
Rug Pull/Rugged
Slang for a scam when the founders, team or developers suddenly leave a crypto project and run away with all the investors’ funds leaving them with nothing.
S
Satoshi Nakamoto
The anonymous creator of the Bitcoin whitepaper and whose identity has never been verified.
Scammer
Someone actively trying to steal other people’s crypto or NFTs.
Secondary
Secondary refers to secondary NFT marketplaces, where NFT collectors or investors can resell NFTs after they’ve been minted. The price of an NFT or NFT collection is determined by those who list them.
Seed phrase
Another name for recovery phrase is the 12-word phrase that allows you to recover all of the crypto wallet accounts’ private keys and regain control of the wallet. Is not advisable to share the seed phrase with anyone.
Seems legit
When an NFT project or a person in the NFT community looks promising and the real deal, meaning seems legitimate. Depending on the context can also be used ironically.
Seems rare
An ironic expression or dismissive comment used by the NFT community. For example, It can be used sarcastically when someone asks for feedback on an NFT they own or created.
Ser
Slang for sir and a polite way of addressing others in an NFT community.
Shill
Expression when someone wants to promote or get exposure to an NFT they own or created.
Shill Thread
It’s a common Twitter strategy to gain traction by encouraging NFT creators to share a link to their NFT project in the hopes of getting bought or noticed by the NFT Community and potential buyers.
Simp/Simping
A NFT holder or creator who comes off as trying to hard impress an NFT whale or investor.
Sh*tposter
A person who mostly posts meme content on Twitter for fun.
SLP
Acronym for Smooth Love Potion. It’s a token players can earn as a reward in the NFT game Axie Infinity.
Smart Contract
A self-executing contract where the terms of the agreement between buyer and seller are directly written into the code and without third party or human intervention. Ethereum is a blockchain that can execute smart contracts, on the contrary to Bitcoin which does not have that capability.
SMFH
Acronym for Shaking My F*cking Head. Common reply to a person showing unbelievable idiocy.
Sock Puppet
Scam account used to lure noob investors into fake investment services.
Snag
It means to buy an NFT quickly and for a very low price. Can also be known as sniping.
Sotheby’s
Very famous auction house that has recently auctioned Beeple’s NFTs or Bored Ape Yacht Club and Crypto Punks’ NFT collections.
Stake
Crypto term for locking up a certain amount of crypto tokens for a set period of time to earn interest. In the NFT space, there are popping up a lot of projects or services that allow NFT holders to earn interest for holding a certain NFT.
Szn
Stands for season referring to crypto or NFT market cycles.
T
TINA
Acronym for There Is No Alternative. Example: someone asks “why are you investing in BTC?”, to which the reply is “TINA”.
TINA RIF
Acronym for There Is No Alternative Resistance Is Futile.
This is the way
A commendation for positive behavior by someone in the NFT Community.
Tokenomics
Referring to the economics of cryptocurrencies, DeFi or NFT projects.
V
Valhalla
Ironic use of the Viking “heaven”. Meaning someone’s NFT collection is either going to be a profitable and blue chip project, therefore they can ascend to Valhalla or is going to tank and that person will have to work at a Mcdonald’s.
Vibe
Term used to express a positive emotional state.
Volatile/Volatility
Term used to describe rapid market fluctuations and crypto or NFT prices go up and down quickly in a short period.
W
WAGMI
Acronym for We Are Going to Make It. Rally cry to build momentum for a crypto or NFT project and lead even more people into buying, shilling or supporting a specific project.
Wallet
There can be a hot or cold wallet, but both are a place where someone can store their cryptocurrency and tokens. Hot wallets are always connected to the Internet like MetaMask, Trust wallet or Phantom. On the contrary cold wallets are hardware wallets to store crypto or NFTs offline like Nano Ledger.
Weak Hands
Synonymous with Paper Hands. Someone who immediately sells their crypto or NFT because of a bear market, FUD or any other negative sentiment.
Web 1.0
Refers to the beginning of the Web. A period from around 1990 to 2005, also known as the read-only web.
Web 2.0
Refers to an iteration of Web 1.0. From 2005 to the present moment, where social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Google, Twitter, etc reshaped the web, therefore becoming the read-write web.
Web 3.0
A term coined by Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood and it’s an idea of what the future of the web could look like. Most peoples’ data, info or content would no longer be centralized in Web 2.0 giants - the Big Tech - but decentralized, mostly thanks to blockchain technology. Web 3.0 could be known as read-write-trust web.
Wen
As in When.
Wen Moon
Popular expression from crypto Twitter not so much in the NFT space. Refers to the still distant future when a token will moon.
Whitepaper
Document released by a crypto or NFT project where it lays the technical information behind the concept, vision, roadmap and plans to grow a certain project.
Whale
Someone who owns a large position on a specific or many cryptos or NFTs.
Y
Yodo
Acronym for You Only Die Once. The opposite of Yolo.
Yolo
Acronym for You Only Live Once. A person can use this when they just realized they bought a shitcoin or crap NFT and they’re getting rekt.
Original post
Tim Soulo
3 years ago
Here is why 90.63% of Pages Get No Traffic From Google.
The web adds millions or billions of pages per day.
How much Google traffic does this content get?
In 2017, we studied 2 million randomly-published pages to answer this question. Only 5.7% of them ranked in Google's top 10 search results within a year of being published.
94.3 percent of roughly two million pages got no Google traffic.
Two million pages is a small sample compared to the entire web. We did another study.
We analyzed over a billion pages to see how many get organic search traffic and why.
How many pages get search traffic?
90% of pages in our index get no Google traffic, and 5.2% get ten visits or less.
90% of google pages get no organic traffic
How can you join the minority that gets Google organic search traffic?
There are hundreds of SEO problems that can hurt your Google rankings. If we only consider common scenarios, there are only four.
Reason #1: No backlinks
I hate to repeat what most SEO articles say, but it's true:
Backlinks boost Google rankings.
Google's "top 3 ranking factors" include them.
Why don't we divide our studied pages by the number of referring domains?
66.31 percent of pages have no backlinks, and 26.29 percent have three or fewer.
Did you notice the trend already?
Most pages lack search traffic and backlinks.
But are these the same pages?
Let's compare monthly organic search traffic to backlinks from unique websites (referring domains):
More backlinks equals more Google organic traffic.
Referring domains and keyword rankings are correlated.
It's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and none of these graphs prove backlinks boost Google rankings. Most SEO professionals agree that it's nearly impossible to rank on the first page without backlinks.
You'll need high-quality backlinks to rank in Google and get search traffic.
Is organic traffic possible without links?
Here are the numbers:
Four million pages get organic search traffic without backlinks. Only one in 20 pages without backlinks has traffic, which is 5% of our sample.
Most get 300 or fewer organic visits per month.
What happens if we exclude high-Domain-Rating pages?
The numbers worsen. Less than 4% of our sample (1.4 million pages) receive organic traffic. Only 320,000 get over 300 monthly organic visits, or 0.1% of our sample.
This suggests high-authority pages without backlinks are more likely to get organic traffic than low-authority pages.
Internal links likely pass PageRank to new pages.
Two other reasons:
Our crawler's blocked. Most shady SEOs block backlinks from us. This prevents competitors from seeing (and reporting) PBNs.
They choose low-competition subjects. Low-volume queries are less competitive, requiring fewer backlinks to rank.
If the idea of getting search traffic without building backlinks excites you, learn about Keyword Difficulty and how to find keywords/topics with decent traffic potential and low competition.
Reason #2: The page has no long-term traffic potential.
Some pages with many backlinks get no Google traffic.
Why? I filtered Content Explorer for pages with no organic search traffic and divided them into four buckets by linking domains.
Almost 70k pages have backlinks from over 200 domains, but no search traffic.
By manually reviewing these (and other) pages, I noticed two general trends that explain why they get no traffic:
They overdid "shady link building" and got penalized by Google;
They're not targeting a Google-searched topic.
I won't elaborate on point one because I hope you don't engage in "shady link building"
#2 is self-explanatory:
If nobody searches for what you write, you won't get search traffic.
Consider one of our blog posts' metrics:
No organic traffic despite 337 backlinks from 132 sites.
The page is about "organic traffic research," which nobody searches for.
News articles often have this. They get many links from around the web but little Google traffic.
People can't search for things they don't know about, and most don't care about old events and don't search for them.
Note:
Some news articles rank in the "Top stories" block for relevant, high-volume search queries, generating short-term organic search traffic.
The Guardian's top "Donald Trump" story:
Ahrefs caught on quickly:
"Donald Trump" gets 5.6M monthly searches, so this page got a lot of "Top stories" traffic.
I bet traffic has dropped if you check now.
One of the quickest and most effective SEO wins is:
Find your website's pages with the most referring domains;
Do keyword research to re-optimize them for relevant topics with good search traffic potential.
Bryan Harris shared this "quick SEO win" during a course interview:
He suggested using Ahrefs' Site Explorer's "Best by links" report to find your site's most-linked pages and analyzing their search traffic. This finds pages with lots of links but little organic search traffic.
We see:
The guide has 67 backlinks but no organic traffic.
We could fix this by re-optimizing the page for "SERP"
A similar guide with 26 backlinks gets 3,400 monthly organic visits, so we should easily increase our traffic.
Don't do this with all low-traffic pages with backlinks. Choose your battles wisely; some pages shouldn't be ranked.
Reason #3: Search intent isn't met
Google returns the most relevant search results.
That's why blog posts with recommendations rank highest for "best yoga mat."
Google knows that most searchers aren't buying.
It's also why this yoga mats page doesn't rank, despite having seven times more backlinks than the top 10 pages:
The page ranks for thousands of other keywords and gets tens of thousands of monthly organic visits. Not being the "best yoga mat" isn't a big deal.
If you have pages with lots of backlinks but no organic traffic, re-optimizing them for search intent can be a quick SEO win.
It was originally a boring landing page describing our product's benefits and offering a 7-day trial.
We realized the problem after analyzing search intent.
People wanted a free tool, not a landing page.
In September 2018, we published a free tool at the same URL. Organic traffic and rankings skyrocketed.
Reason #4: Unindexed page
Google can’t rank pages that aren’t indexed.
If you think this is the case, search Google for site:[url]. You should see at least one result; otherwise, it’s not indexed.
A rogue noindex meta tag is usually to blame. This tells search engines not to index a URL.
Rogue canonicals, redirects, and robots.txt blocks prevent indexing.
Check the "Excluded" tab in Google Search Console's "Coverage" report to see excluded pages.
Google doesn't index broken pages, even with backlinks.
Surprisingly common.
In Ahrefs' Site Explorer, the Best by Links report for a popular content marketing blog shows many broken pages.
One dead page has 131 backlinks:
According to the URL, the page defined content marketing. —a keyword with a monthly search volume of 5,900 in the US.
Luckily, another page ranks for this keyword. Not a huge loss.
At least redirect the dead page's backlinks to a working page on the same topic. This may increase long-tail keyword traffic.
This post is a summary. See the original post here