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Ben Carlson

Ben Carlson

3 years ago

Bear market duration and how to invest during one

More on Economics & Investing

Sofien Kaabar, CFA

Sofien Kaabar, CFA

2 years ago

Innovative Trading Methods: The Catapult Indicator

Python Volatility-Based Catapult Indicator

As a catapult, this technical indicator uses three systems: Volatility (the fulcrum), Momentum (the propeller), and a Directional Filter (Acting as the support). The goal is to get a signal that predicts volatility acceleration and direction based on historical patterns. We want to know when the market will move. and where. This indicator outperforms standard indicators.

Knowledge must be accessible to everyone. This is why my new publications Contrarian Trading Strategies in Python and Trend Following Strategies in Python now include free PDF copies of my first three books (Therefore, purchasing one of the new books gets you 4 books in total). GitHub-hosted advanced indications and techniques are in the two new books above.

The Foundation: Volatility

The Catapult predicts significant changes with the 21-period Relative Volatility Index.

The Average True Range, Mean Absolute Deviation, and Standard Deviation all assess volatility. Standard Deviation will construct the Relative Volatility Index.

Standard Deviation is the most basic volatility. It underpins descriptive statistics and technical indicators like Bollinger Bands. Before calculating Standard Deviation, let's define Variance.

Variance is the squared deviations from the mean (a dispersion measure). We take the square deviations to compel the distance from the mean to be non-negative, then we take the square root to make the measure have the same units as the mean, comparing apples to apples (mean to standard deviation standard deviation). Variance formula:

As stated, standard deviation is:

# The function to add a number of columns inside an array
def adder(Data, times):
    
    for i in range(1, times + 1):
    
        new_col = np.zeros((len(Data), 1), dtype = float)
        Data = np.append(Data, new_col, axis = 1)
        
    return Data

# The function to delete a number of columns starting from an index
def deleter(Data, index, times):
    
    for i in range(1, times + 1):
    
        Data = np.delete(Data, index, axis = 1)
        
    return Data
    
# The function to delete a number of rows from the beginning
def jump(Data, jump):
    
    Data = Data[jump:, ]
    
    return Data

# Example of adding 3 empty columns to an array
my_ohlc_array = adder(my_ohlc_array, 3)

# Example of deleting the 2 columns after the column indexed at 3
my_ohlc_array = deleter(my_ohlc_array, 3, 2)

# Example of deleting the first 20 rows
my_ohlc_array = jump(my_ohlc_array, 20)

# Remember, OHLC is an abbreviation of Open, High, Low, and Close and it refers to the standard historical data file

def volatility(Data, lookback, what, where):
    
  for i in range(len(Data)):

     try:

        Data[i, where] = (Data[i - lookback + 1:i + 1, what].std())
     except IndexError:
        pass
        
  return Data

The RSI is the most popular momentum indicator, and for good reason—it excels in range markets. Its 0–100 range simplifies interpretation. Fame boosts its potential.

The more traders and portfolio managers look at the RSI, the more people will react to its signals, pushing market prices. Technical Analysis is self-fulfilling, therefore this theory is obvious yet unproven.

RSI is determined simply. Start with one-period pricing discrepancies. We must remove each closing price from the previous one. We then divide the smoothed average of positive differences by the smoothed average of negative differences. The RSI algorithm converts the Relative Strength from the last calculation into a value between 0 and 100.

def ma(Data, lookback, close, where): 
    
    Data = adder(Data, 1)
    
    for i in range(len(Data)):
           
            try:
                Data[i, where] = (Data[i - lookback + 1:i + 1, close].mean())
            
            except IndexError:
                pass
            
    # Cleaning
    Data = jump(Data, lookback)
    
    return Data
def ema(Data, alpha, lookback, what, where):
    
    alpha = alpha / (lookback + 1.0)
    beta  = 1 - alpha
    
    # First value is a simple SMA
    Data = ma(Data, lookback, what, where)
    
    # Calculating first EMA
    Data[lookback + 1, where] = (Data[lookback + 1, what] * alpha) + (Data[lookback, where] * beta)    
 
    # Calculating the rest of EMA
    for i in range(lookback + 2, len(Data)):
            try:
                Data[i, where] = (Data[i, what] * alpha) + (Data[i - 1, where] * beta)
        
            except IndexError:
                pass
            
    return Datadef rsi(Data, lookback, close, where, width = 1, genre = 'Smoothed'):
    
    # Adding a few columns
    Data = adder(Data, 7)
    
    # Calculating Differences
    for i in range(len(Data)):
        
        Data[i, where] = Data[i, close] - Data[i - width, close]
     
    # Calculating the Up and Down absolute values
    for i in range(len(Data)):
        
        if Data[i, where] > 0:
            
            Data[i, where + 1] = Data[i, where]
            
        elif Data[i, where] < 0:
            
            Data[i, where + 2] = abs(Data[i, where])
            
    # Calculating the Smoothed Moving Average on Up and Down
    absolute values        
                             
    lookback = (lookback * 2) - 1 # From exponential to smoothed
    Data = ema(Data, 2, lookback, where + 1, where + 3)
    Data = ema(Data, 2, lookback, where + 2, where + 4)
    
    # Calculating the Relative Strength
    Data[:, where + 5] = Data[:, where + 3] / Data[:, where + 4]
    
    # Calculate the Relative Strength Index
    Data[:, where + 6] = (100 - (100 / (1 + Data[:, where + 5])))  
    
    # Cleaning
    Data = deleter(Data, where, 6)
    Data = jump(Data, lookback)

    return Data
EURUSD in the first panel with the 21-period RVI in the second panel.
def relative_volatility_index(Data, lookback, close, where):

    # Calculating Volatility
    Data = volatility(Data, lookback, close, where)
    
    # Calculating the RSI on Volatility
    Data = rsi(Data, lookback, where, where + 1) 
    
    # Cleaning
    Data = deleter(Data, where, 1)
    
    return Data

The Arm Section: Speed

The Catapult predicts momentum direction using the 14-period Relative Strength Index.

EURUSD in the first panel with the 14-period RSI in the second panel.

As a reminder, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. Two levels give contrarian signals:

  • A positive response is anticipated when the market is deemed to have gone too far down at the oversold level 30, which is 30.

  • When the market is deemed to have gone up too much, at overbought level 70, a bearish reaction is to be expected.

Comparing the RSI to 50 is another intriguing use. RSI above 50 indicates bullish momentum, while below 50 indicates negative momentum.

The direction-finding filter in the frame

The Catapult's directional filter uses the 200-period simple moving average to keep us trending. This keeps us sane and increases our odds.

Moving averages confirm and ride trends. Its simplicity and track record of delivering value to analysis make them the most popular technical indicator. They help us locate support and resistance, stops and targets, and the trend. Its versatility makes them essential trading tools.

EURUSD hourly values with the 200-hour simple moving average.

This is the plain mean, employed in statistics and everywhere else in life. Simply divide the number of observations by their total values. Mathematically, it's:

We defined the moving average function above. Create the Catapult indication now.

Indicator of the Catapult

The indicator is a healthy mix of the three indicators:

  • The first trigger will be provided by the 21-period Relative Volatility Index, which indicates that there will now be above average volatility and, as a result, it is possible for a directional shift.

  • If the reading is above 50, the move is likely bullish, and if it is below 50, the move is likely bearish, according to the 14-period Relative Strength Index, which indicates the likelihood of the direction of the move.

  • The likelihood of the move's direction will be strengthened by the 200-period simple moving average. When the market is above the 200-period moving average, we can infer that bullish pressure is there and that the upward trend will likely continue. Similar to this, if the market falls below the 200-period moving average, we recognize that there is negative pressure and that the downside is quite likely to continue.

lookback_rvi = 21
lookback_rsi = 14
lookback_ma  = 200
my_data = ma(my_data, lookback_ma, 3, 4)
my_data = rsi(my_data, lookback_rsi, 3, 5)
my_data = relative_volatility_index(my_data, lookback_rvi, 3, 6)

Two-handled overlay indicator Catapult. The first exhibits blue and green arrows for a buy signal, and the second shows blue and red for a sell signal.

The chart below shows recent EURUSD hourly values.

Signal chart.
def signal(Data, rvi_col, signal):
    
    Data = adder(Data, 10)
        
    for i in range(len(Data)):
            
        if Data[i,     rvi_col] < 30 and \
           Data[i - 1, rvi_col] > 30 and \
           Data[i - 2, rvi_col] > 30 and \
           Data[i - 3, rvi_col] > 30 and \
           Data[i - 4, rvi_col] > 30 and \
           Data[i - 5, rvi_col] > 30:
               
               Data[i, signal] = 1
                           
    return Data
Signal chart.

Signals are straightforward. The indicator can be utilized with other methods.

my_data = signal(my_data, 6, 7)
Signal chart.

Lumiwealth shows how to develop all kinds of algorithms. I recommend their hands-on courses in algorithmic trading, blockchain, and machine learning.

Summary

To conclude, my goal is to contribute to objective technical analysis, which promotes more transparent methods and strategies that must be back-tested before implementation. Technical analysis will lose its reputation as subjective and unscientific.

After you find a trading method or approach, follow these steps:

  • Put emotions aside and adopt an analytical perspective.

  • Test it in the past in conditions and simulations taken from real life.

  • Try improving it and performing a forward test if you notice any possibility.

  • Transaction charges and any slippage simulation should always be included in your tests.

  • Risk management and position sizing should always be included in your tests.

After checking the aforementioned, monitor the plan because market dynamics may change and render it unprofitable.

Liam Vaughan

Liam Vaughan

3 years ago

Investors can bet big on almost anything on a new prediction market.

Kalshi allows five-figure bets on the Grammys, the next Covid wave, and future SEC commissioners. Worst-case scenario

On Election Day 2020, two young entrepreneurs received a call from the CFTC chairman. Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour spent 18 months trying to start a new type of financial exchange. Instead of betting on stock prices or commodity futures, people could trade instruments tied to real-world events, such as legislation, the weather, or the Oscar winner.

Heath Tarbert, a Trump appointee, shouted "Congratulations." "You're competing with 1840s-era markets. I'm sure you'll become a powerhouse too."

Companies had tried to introduce similar event markets in the US for years, but Tarbert's agency, the CFTC, said no, arguing they were gambling and prone to cheating. Now the agency has reversed course, approving two 24-year-olds who will have first-mover advantage in what could become a huge new asset class. Kalshi Inc. raised $30 million from venture capitalists within weeks of Tarbert's call, his representative says. Mansour, 26, believes this will be bigger than crypto.

Anyone who's read The Wisdom of Crowds knows prediction markets' potential. Well-designed markets can help draw out knowledge from disparate groups, and research shows that when money is at stake, people make better predictions. Lopes Lara calls it a "bullshit tax." That's why Google, Microsoft, and even the US Department of Defense use prediction markets internally to guide decisions, and why university-linked political betting sites like PredictIt sometimes outperform polls.

Regulators feared Wall Street-scale trading would encourage investors to manipulate reality. If the stakes are high enough, traders could pressure congressional staffers to stall a bill or bet on whether Kanye West's new album will drop this week. When Lopes Lara and Mansour pitched the CFTC, senior regulators raised these issues. Politically appointed commissioners overruled their concerns, and one later joined Kalshi's board.

Will Kanye’s new album come out next week? Yes or no?

Kalshi's victory was due more to lobbying and legal wrangling than to Silicon Valley-style innovation. Lopes Lara and Mansour didn't invent anything; they changed a well-established concept's governance. The result could usher in a new era of market-based enlightenment or push Wall Street's destructive tendencies into the real world.

If Kalshi's founders lacked experience to bolster their CFTC application, they had comical youth success. Lopes Lara studied ballet at the Brazilian Bolshoi before coming to the US. Mansour won France's math Olympiad. They bonded over their work ethic in an MIT computer science class.

Lopes Lara had the idea for Kalshi while interning at a New York hedge fund. When the traders around her weren't working, she noticed they were betting on the news: Would Apple hit a trillion dollars? Kylie Jenner? "It was anything," she says.

Are mortgage rates going up? Yes or no?

Mansour saw the business potential when Lopes Lara suggested it. He interned at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., helping investors prepare for the UK leaving the EU. Goldman sold clients complex stock-and-derivative combinations. As he discussed it with Lopes Lara, they agreed that investors should hedge their risk by betting on Brexit itself rather than an imperfect proxy.

Lopes Lara and Mansour hypothesized how a marketplace might work. They settled on a "event contract," a binary-outcome instrument like "Will inflation hit 5% by the end of the month?" The contract would settle at $1 (if the event happened) or zero (if it didn't), but its price would fluctuate based on market sentiment. After a good debate, a politician's election odds may rise from 50 to 55. Kalshi would charge a commission on every trade and sell data to traders, political campaigns, businesses, and others.

In October 2018, five months after graduation, the pair flew to California to compete in a hackathon for wannabe tech founders organized by the Silicon Valley incubator Y Combinator. They built a website in a day and a night and presented it to entrepreneurs the next day. Their prototype barely worked, but they won a three-month mentorship program and $150,000. Michael Seibel, managing director of Y Combinator, said of their idea, "I had to take a chance!"

Will there be another moon landing by 2025?

Seibel's skepticism was rooted in America's historical wariness of gambling. Roulette, poker, and other online casino games are largely illegal, and sports betting was only legal in a few states until May 2018. Kalshi as a risk-hedging platform rather than a bookmaker seemed like a good idea, but convincing the CFTC wouldn't be easy. In 2012, the CFTC said trading on politics had no "economic purpose" and was "contrary to the public interest."

Lopes Lara and Mansour cold-called 60 Googled lawyers during their time at Y Combinator. Everyone advised quitting. Mansour recalls the pain. Jeff Bandman, a former CFTC official, helped them navigate the agency and its characters.

When they weren’t busy trying to recruit lawyers, Lopes Lara and Mansour were meeting early-stage investors. Alfred Lin of Sequoia Capital Operations LLC backed Airbnb, DoorDash, and Uber Technologies. Lin told the founders their idea could capitalize on retail trading and challenge how the financial world manages risk. "Come back with regulatory approval," he said.

In the US, even small bets on most events were once illegal. Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC can stop exchanges from listing contracts relating to "terrorism, assassination, war" and "gaming" if they are "contrary to the public interest," which was often the case.

Will subway ridership return to normal? Yes or no?

In 1988, as academic interest in the field grew, the agency allowed the University of Iowa to set up a prediction market for research purposes, as long as it didn't make a profit or advertise and limited bets to $500. PredictIt, the biggest and best-known political betting platform in the US, also got an exemption thanks to an association with Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. Today, it's a sprawling marketplace with its own subculture and lingo. PredictIt users call it "Rules Cuck Panther" when they lose on a technicality. Major news outlets cite PredictIt's odds on Discord and the Star Spangled Gamblers podcast.

CFTC limits PredictIt bets to $850. To keep traders happy, PredictIt will often run multiple variations of the same question, listing separate contracts for two dozen Democratic primary candidates, for example. A trader could have more than $10,000 riding on a single outcome. Some of the site's traders are current or former campaign staffers who can answer questions like "How many tweets will Donald Trump post from Nov. 20 to 27?" and "When will Anthony Scaramucci's role as White House communications director end?"

According to PredictIt co-founder John Phillips, politicians help explain the site's accuracy. "Prediction markets work well and are accurate because they attract people with superior information," he said in a 2016 podcast. “In the financial stock market, it’s called inside information.”

Will Build Back Better pass? Yes or no?

Trading on nonpublic information is illegal outside of academia, which presented a dilemma for Lopes Lara and Mansour. Kalshi's forecasts needed to be accurate. Kalshi must eliminate insider trading as a regulated entity. Lopes Lara and Mansour wanted to build a high-stakes PredictIt without the anarchy or blurred legal lines—a "New York Stock Exchange for Events." First, they had to convince regulators event trading was safe.

When Lopes Lara and Mansour approached the CFTC in the spring of 2019, some officials in the Division of Market Oversight were skeptical, according to interviews with people involved in the process. For all Kalshi's talk of revolutionizing finance, this was just a turbocharged version of something that had been rejected before.

The DMO couldn't see the big picture. The staff review was supposed to ensure Kalshi could complete a checklist, "23 Core Principles of a Designated Contract Market," which included keeping good records and having enough money. The five commissioners decide. With Trump as president, three of them were ideologically pro-market.

Lopes Lara, Mansour, and their lawyer Bandman, an ex-CFTC official, answered the DMO's questions while lobbying the commissioners on Zoom about the potential of event markets to mitigate risks and make better decisions. Before each meeting, they would write a script and memorize it word for word.

Will student debt be forgiven? Yes or no?

Several prediction markets that hadn't sought regulatory approval bolstered Kalshi's case. Polymarket let customers bet hundreds of thousands of dollars anonymously using cryptocurrencies, making it hard to track. Augur, which facilitates private wagers between parties using blockchain, couldn't regulate bets and hadn't stopped users from betting on assassinations. Kalshi, by comparison, argued it was doing everything right. (The CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for operating an unlicensed exchange in January 2022. Polymarket says it's now compliant and excited to pioneer smart contract-based financial solutions with regulators.

Kalshi was approved unanimously despite some DMO members' concerns about event contracts' riskiness. "Once they check all the boxes, they're in," says a CFTC insider.

Three months after CFTC approval, Kalshi announced funding from Sequoia, Charles Schwab, and Henry Kravis. Sequoia's Lin, who joined the board, said Tarek, Luana, and team created a new way to invest and engage with the world.

The CFTC hadn't asked what markets the exchange planned to run since. After approval, Lopes Lara and Mansour had the momentum. Kalshi's March list of 30 proposed contracts caused chaos at the DMO. The division handles exchanges that create two or three new markets a year. Kalshi’s business model called for new ones practically every day.

Uncontroversial proposals included weather and GDP questions. Others, on the initial list and later, were concerning. DMO officials feared Covid-19 contracts amounted to gambling on human suffering, which is why war and terrorism markets are banned. (Similar logic doomed ex-admiral John Poindexter's Policy Analysis Market, a Bush-era plan to uncover intelligence by having security analysts bet on Middle East events.) Regulators didn't see how predicting the Grammy winners was different from betting on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. Who, other than John Legend, would need to hedge the best R&B album winner?

Event contracts raised new questions for the DMO's product review team. Regulators could block gaming contracts that weren't in the public interest under the Commodity Exchange Act, but no one had defined gaming. It was unclear whether the CFTC had a right or an obligation to consider whether a contract was in the public interest. How was it to determine public interest? Another person familiar with the CFTC review says, "It was a mess." The agency didn't comment.

CFTC staff feared some event contracts could be cheated. Kalshi wanted to run a bee-endangerment market. The DMO pushed back, saying it saw two problems symptomatic of the asset class: traders could press government officials for information, and officials could delay adding the insects to the list to cash in.

The idea that traders might manipulate prediction markets wasn't paranoid. In 2013, academics David Rothschild and Rajiv Sethi found that an unidentified party lost $7 million buying Mitt Romney contracts on Intrade, a now-defunct, unlicensed Irish platform, in the runup to the 2012 election. The authors speculated that the trader, whom they dubbed the “Romney Whale,” may have been looking to boost morale and keep donations coming in.

Kalshi said manipulation and insider trading are risks for any market. It built a surveillance system and said it would hire a team to monitor it. "People trade on events all the time—they just use options and other instruments. This brings everything into the open, Mansour says. Kalshi didn't include election contracts, a red line for CFTC Democrats.

Lopes Lara and Mansour were ready to launch kalshi.com that summer, but the DMO blocked them. Product reviewers were frustrated by spending half their time on an exchange that represented a tiny portion of the derivatives market. Lopes Lara and Mansour pressed politically appointed commissioners during the impasse.

Tarbert, the chairman, had moved on, but Kalshi found a new supporter in Republican Brian Quintenz, a crypto-loving former hedge fund manager. He was unmoved by the DMO's concerns, arguing that speculation on Kalshi's proposed events was desirable and the agency had no legal standing to prevent it. He supported a failed bid to allow NFL futures earlier this year. Others on the commission were cautious but supportive. Given the law's ambiguity, they worried they'd be on shaky ground if Kalshi sued if they blocked a contract. Without a permanent chairman, the agency lacked leadership.

To block a contract, DMO staff needed a majority of commissioners' support, which they didn't have in all but a few cases. "We didn't have the votes," a reviewer says, paraphrasing Hamilton. By the second half of 2021, new contract requests were arriving almost daily at the DMO, and the demoralized and overrun division eventually accepted defeat and stopped fighting back. By the end of the year, three senior DMO officials had left the agency, making it easier for Kalshi to list its contracts unimpeded.

Today, Kalshi is growing. 32 employees work in a SoHo office with big windows and exposed brick. Quintenz, who left the CFTC 10 months after Kalshi was approved, is on its board. He joined because he was interested in the market's hedging and risk management opportunities.

Mid-May, the company's website had 75 markets, such as "Will Q4 GDP be negative?" Will NASA land on the moon by 2025? The exchange recently reached 2 million weekly contracts, a jump from where it started but still a small number compared to other futures exchanges. Early adopters are PredictIt and Polymarket fans. Bets on the site are currently capped at $25,000, but Kalshi hopes to increase that to $100,000 and beyond.

With the regulatory drawbridge down, Lopes Lara and Mansour must move quickly. Chicago's CME Group Inc. plans to offer index-linked event contracts. Kalshi will release a smartphone app to attract customers. After that, it hopes to partner with a big brokerage. Sequoia is a major investor in Robinhood Markets Inc. Robinhood users could have access to Kalshi so that after buying GameStop Corp. shares, they'd be prompted to bet on the Oscars or the next Fed commissioner.

Some, like Illinois Democrat Sean Casten, accuse Robinhood and its competitors of gamifying trading to encourage addiction, but Kalshi doesn't seem worried. Mansour says Kalshi's customers can't bet more than they've deposited, making debt difficult. Eventually, he may introduce leveraged bets.

Tension over event contracts recalls another CFTC episode. Brooksley Born proposed regulating the financial derivatives market in 1994. Alan Greenspan and others in the government opposed her, saying it would stifle innovation and push capital overseas. Unrestrained, derivatives grew into a trillion-dollar industry until 2008, when they sparked the financial crisis.

Today, with a midterm election looming, it seems reasonable to ask whether Kalshi plans to get involved. Elections have historically been the biggest draw in prediction markets, with 125 million shares traded on PredictIt for 2020. “We can’t discuss specifics,” Mansour says. “All I can say is, you know, we’re always working on expanding the universe of things that people can trade on.”

Any election contracts would need CFTC approval, which may be difficult with three Democratic commissioners. A Republican president would change the equation.

Cody Collins

Cody Collins

2 years ago

The direction of the economy is as follows.

What quarterly bank earnings reveal

Photo by Michael Dziedzic on Unsplash

Big banks know the economy best. Unless we’re talking about a housing crisis in 2007…

Banks are crucial to the U.S. economy. The Fed, communities, and investments exchange money.

An economy depends on money flow. Banks' views on the economy can affect their decision-making.

Most large banks released quarterly earnings and forward guidance last week. Others were pessimistic about the future.

What Makes Banks Confident

Bank of America's profit decreased 30% year-over-year, but they're optimistic about the economy. Comparatively, they're bullish.

Who banks serve affects what they see. Bank of America supports customers.

They think consumers' future is bright. They believe this for many reasons.

The average customer has decent credit, unless the system is flawed. Bank of America's new credit card and mortgage borrowers averaged 771. New-car loan and home equity borrower averages were 791 and 797.

2008's housing crisis affected people with scores below 620.

Bank of America and the economy benefit from a robust consumer. Major problems can be avoided if individuals maintain spending.

Reasons Other Banks Are Less Confident

Spending requires income. Many companies, mostly in the computer industry, have announced they will slow or freeze hiring. Layoffs are frequently an indication of poor times ahead.

BOA is positive, but investment banks are bearish.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, outlined various difficulties our economy could confront.

But geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity, combined with the war in Ukraine and its harmful effect on global energy and food prices are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road.

That's more headwinds than tailwinds.

JPMorgan, which helps with mergers and IPOs, is less enthusiastic due to these concerns. Incoming headwinds signal drying liquidity, they say. Less business will be done.

Final Reflections

I don't think we're done. Yes, stocks are up 10% from a month ago. It's a long way from old highs.

I don't think the stock market is a strong economic indicator.

Many executives foresee a 2023 recession. According to the traditional definition, we may be in a recession when Q2 GDP statistics are released next week.

Regardless of criteria, I predict the economy will have a terrible year.

Weekly layoffs are announced. Inflation persists. Will prices return to 2020 levels if inflation cools? Perhaps. Still expensive energy. Ukraine's war has global repercussions.

I predict BOA's next quarter earnings won't be as bullish about the consumer's strength.

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Techletters

Techletters

2 years ago

Using Synthesia, DALL-E 2, and Chat GPT-3, create AI news videos

Combining AIs creates realistic AI News Videos.

Combine different AIs. Image by Lukas from Pixabay.

Powerful AI tools like Chat GPT-3 are trending. Have you combined AIs?

The 1-minute fake news video below is startlingly realistic. Artificial Intelligence developed NASA's Mars exploration breakthrough video (AI). However, integrating the aforementioned AIs generated it.

  • AI-generated text for the Chat GPT-3 based on a succinct tagline

  • DALL-E-2 AI generates an image from a brief slogan.

  • Artificial intelligence-generated avatar and speech

This article shows how to use and mix the three AIs to make a realistic news video. First, watch the video (1 minute).

Talk GPT-3

Chat GPT-3 is an OpenAI NLP model. It can auto-complete text and produce conversational responses.

Try it at the playground. The AI will write a comprehensive text from a brief tagline. Let's see what the AI generates with "Breakthrough in Mars Project" as the headline.

Open AI / GPT-3 Playground was used to generate a text based on our headline.

Amazing. Our tagline matches our complete and realistic text. Fake news can start here.

DALL-E-2

OpenAI's huge transformer-based language model DALL-E-2. Its GPT-3 basis is geared for image generation. It can generate high-quality photos from a brief phrase and create artwork and images of non-existent objects.

DALL-E-2 can create a news video background. We'll use "Breakthrough in Mars project" again. Our AI creates four striking visuals. Last.

DALL-E-2 AI was used to generate a background image based on a short tagline.

Synthesia

Synthesia lets you quickly produce videos with AI avatars and synthetic vocals.

Avatars are first. Rosie it is.

Synthesia AI was used to generate a moving avatar.

Upload and select DALL-backdrop. E-2's

Add DALL-E-2 background to Synthesia AI.

Copy the Chat GPT-3 content and choose a synthetic voice.

Copy text from GPT-3 to Synthesia AI.

Voice: English (US) Professional.

Select synthetic voice in Synthesia AI.

Finally, we generate and watch or download our video.

Synthesia AI completes the AI video.

Overview & Resources

We used three AIs to make surprisingly realistic NASA Mars breakthrough fake news in this post. Synthesia generates an avatar and a synthetic voice, therefore it may be four AIs.

These AIs created our fake news.

  • AI-generated text for the Chat GPT-3 based on a succinct tagline

  • DALL-E-2 AI generates an image from a brief slogan.

  • Artificial intelligence-generated avatar and speech

John Rampton

John Rampton

3 years ago

Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters

Ready to quit full-time? No worries.

Baby Boomer retirement has accelerated since COVID-19 began. In 2020, 29 million boomers retire. Over 3 million more than in 2019. 75 million Baby Boomers will retire by 2030.

First, quit your work to enjoy retirement. Leave a professional legacy. Your retirement will start well. It all starts with a retirement letter.

Retirement Letter

Retirement letters are formal resignation letters. Different from other resignation letters, these don't tell your employer you're leaving. Instead, you're quitting.

Since you're not departing over grievances or for a better position or higher income, you may usually terminate the relationship amicably. Consulting opportunities are possible.

Thank your employer for their support and give them transition information.

Resignation letters aren't merely a formality. This method handles wages, insurance, and retirement benefits.

Retirement letters often accompany verbal notices to managers. Schedule a meeting before submitting your retirement letter to discuss your plans. The letter will be stored alongside your start date, salary, and benefits in your employee file.

Retirement is typically well-planned. Employers want 6-12 months' notice.

Summary

  • Guidelines for Giving Retirement Notice

  • Components of a Successful Retirement Letter

  • Template for Retirement Letter

  • Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters

  • First Example of Retirement Letter

  • Second Example of Retirement Letter

  • Third Example of Retirement Letter

  • Fourth Example of Retirement Letter

  • Fifth Example of Retirement Letter

  • Sixth Example of Retirement Letter

  • Seventh Example of Retirement Letter

  • Eighth Example of Retirement Letter

  • Ninth Example of Retirement Letter

  • Tenth Example of Retirement Letter

  • Frequently Asked Questions

  • 1. What is a letter of retirement?

  • 2. Why should you include a letter of retirement?

  • 3. What information ought to be in your retirement letter?

  • 4. Must I provide notice?

  • 5. What is the ideal retirement age?

Guidelines for Giving Retirement Notice

While starting a new phase, you're also leaving a job you were qualified for. You have years of experience. So, it may not be easy to fill a retirement-related vacancy.

Talk to your boss in person before sending a letter. Notice is always appreciated. Properly announcing your retirement helps you and your organization transition.

How to announce retirement:

  • Learn about the retirement perks and policies offered by the company. The first step in figuring out whether you're eligible for retirement benefits is to research your company's retirement policy.

  • Don't depart without providing adequate notice. You should give the business plenty of time to replace you if you want to retire in a few months.

  • Help the transition by offering aid. You could be a useful resource if your replacement needs training.

  • Contact the appropriate parties. The original copy should go to your boss. Give a copy to HR because they will manage your 401(k), pension, and health insurance.

  • Investigate the option of working as a consultant or part-time. If you desire, you can continue doing some limited work for the business.

  • Be nice to others. Describe your achievements and appreciation. Additionally, express your gratitude for giving you the chance to work with such excellent coworkers.

  • Make a plan for your future move. Simply updating your employer on your goals will help you maintain a good working relationship.

  • Use a formal letter or email to formalize your plans. The initial step is to speak with your supervisor and HR in person, but you must also give written notice.

Components of a Successful Retirement Letter

To write a good retirement letter, keep in mind the following:

  • A formal salutation. Here, the voice should be deliberate, succinct, and authoritative.

  • Be specific about your intentions. The key idea of your retirement letter is resignation. Your decision to depart at this time should be reflected in your letter. Remember that your intention must be clear-cut.

  • Your deadline. This information must be in resignation letters. Laws and corporate policies may both stipulate a minimum amount of notice.

  • A kind voice. Your retirement letter shouldn't contain any resentments, insults, or other unpleasantness. Your letter should be a model of professionalism and grace. A straightforward thank you is a terrific approach to accomplish that.

  • Your ultimate goal. Chaos may start to happen as soon as you turn in your resignation letter. Your position will need to be filled. Additionally, you will have to perform your obligations up until a successor is found. Your availability during the interim period should be stated in your resignation letter.

  • Give us a way to reach you. Even if you aren't consulting, your company will probably get in touch with you at some point. They might send you tax documents and details on perks. By giving your contact information, you can make this process easier.

Template for Retirement Letter

Identify

Title you held

Address

Supervisor's name

Supervisor’s position

Company name

HQ address

Date

[SUPERVISOR],

1.

Inform that you're retiring. Include your last day worked.

2.

Employer thanks. Mention what you're thankful for. Describe your accomplishments and successes.

3.

Helping moves things ahead. Plan your retirement. Mention your consultancy interest.

Sincerely,

[Signature]

First and last name

Phone number

Personal Email

Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters

First Example of Retirement Letter

Martin D. Carey

123 Fleming St

Bloomfield, New Jersey 07003

(555) 555-1234

June 6th, 2022

Willie E. Coyote

President

Acme Co

321 Anvil Ave

Fairfield, New Jersey 07004

Dear Mr. Coyote,

This letter notifies Acme Co. of my retirement on August 31, 2022.

There has been no other organization that has given me that sense of belonging and purpose.

My fifteen years at the helm of the Structural Design Division have given me‌ ‌a‌ ‌strong sense‌ ‌of‌ ‌purpose. I’ve been fortunate to have your support, and I’ll be always grateful for the opportunity you offered me.

I had a difficult time making this decision. ‌As a result of finding a small property in Arizona where we will be able to spend our remaining days together, my wife and I have decided to officially retire.

In spite of my regret at being unable to contribute to the firm we’ve built, I believe it is wise to move on.

My heart will always belong to Acme Co. ‌Thank you for the opportunity and best of luck in the years to come.

Sincerely,

Martin D. Carey

Second Example of Retirement Letter

Gustavo Fring

Los Pollas Hermanos

12000–12100 Coors Rd SW,

Albuquerque, New Mexico 87045

Dear Mr. Fring,

I write this letter to announce my formal retirement from Los Pollas Hermanos as manager, effective October 15.

As an employee at Los Pollas Hermanos, I appreciate all the great opportunities you have given me. ‌It has been a pleasure to work with and learn from my colleagues for the past 10 years, and I am looking forward to my next challenge.

If there is anything I can do to assist during this time, please let me know.

Sincerely,

Linda T. Crespo

Third Example of Retirement Letter

William M. Arviso

4387 Parkview Drive

Tustin, CA 92680

May 2, 2023

Tony Stark

Owner

Stark Industries

200 Industrial Avenue

Long Beach, CA 90803

Dear Tony:

I’m writing to inform you that my final day of work at Stark Industries will be May14, 2023. ‌When that time comes, I intend‌ ‌to‌ ‌retire.

As I embark on this new chapter in my life, I would like to thank you and the entire Stark Industries team for providing me with so many opportunities. ‌You have all been a pleasure to work with and I will miss you all when I retire.

I am glad to assist you with the transition in any way I can to ensure your new hire has a seamless experience. ‌All ongoing projects will be completed until my retirement date, and all key information will be handed over‌ ‌to‌ ‌the‌ ‌team.

Once again, thank you for the opportunity to be part of the Stark Industries team. ‌All the best to you and the team in the days to come.

Please do not hesitate to contact me if you require any additional information. ‌In order to finalize my retirement plans, I’ll meet with HR and can provide any details that may be necessary.

Sincerely,

(Signature)

William M. Arviso

Fourth Example of Retirement Letter

Garcia, Barbara

First Street, 5432

New York City, NY 10001

(1234) (555) 123–1234

1 October 2022

Gunther

Owner

Central Perk

199 Lafayette St.

New York City, NY 10001

Mr. Gunther,

The day has finally arrived. ‌As I never imagined, I will be formally retiring from Central Perk on November 1st, 2022.

Considering how satisfied I am with my current position, this may surprise you. ‌It would be best if I retired now since my health has deteriorated, so I think this is a good time to do so.

There is no doubt that the past‌ ‌two‌ ‌decades‌ ‌have‌ ‌been‌ ‌wonderful. ‌Over the years, I have seen a small coffee shop grow into one of the city’s top‌ ‌destinations.

It will be hard for me to leave this firm without wondering what more success we could have achieved. But I’m confident that you and the rest of the Central Perk team will achieve great things.

My family and I will never forget what you’ve done for us, and I am grateful for the chance you’ve given me. My house is always open to you.

Sincerely Yours

Garcia, Barbara

Fifth Example of Retirement Letter

Pat Williams

618 Spooky Place

Monstropolis, 23221

123–555–0031

pwilliams@email.com

Feb. 16, 2022

Mike Wazowski

Co-CEO

Monters, Inc.

324 Scare Road

Monstropolis

Dear Mr. Wazowski,

As a formal notice of my upcoming retirement, I am submitting this letter. ‌I will be leaving Monters, Inc. on‌ ‌April‌ ‌13.

These past 10 years as a marketing associate have provided me with many opportunities. ‌Since we started our company a decade ago, we have seen the face of harnessing screams change dramatically into harnessing laughter. ‌During my time working with this dynamic marketing team, I learned a lot about customer behavior and marketing strategies. ‌Working closely with some of our long-standing clients, such as Boo, was a particular pleasure.

I would be happy to‌ ‌assist‌ ‌with‌ ‌the‌ ‌transition‌ ‌following‌ ‌my‌ ‌retirement. ‌It would be my pleasure to assist in the hiring or training of‌ ‌my‌ ‌replacement. ‌In order to spend more time with my family, I will also be able to offer part-time consulting services.

After I retire, I plan to cash out the eight unused vacation days I’ve accumulated and take my pension as a lump sum.

Thank you for the opportunity to work with Monters, Inc. ‌In the years to come, I wish you all the best!

Sincerely,

Paul Williams

Sixth Example of Retirement Letter

Dear Micheal,

As In my tenure at Dunder Mifflin Paper Company, I have given everything I had. It has been an honor to work here. But‌ ‌I‌ ‌have‌ ‌decided‌ ‌to‌ ‌move on to new challenges and retire from my position — mainly bears, beets, and Battlestar Galactia.

I appreciate the opportunity to work here and learn so much. During my time at this company, I will always remember the good times and memories we shared. Wishing you all the best in the future.

Sincerely,

Dwight K. Shrute

Your signature

May 16

Seventh Example of Retirement Letter

Greetings, Bill

I am announcing my retirement from Initech, effective March 15, 2023.

Over the course of my career here, I’ve had the privilege of working with so many talented and inspiring people.

In 1999, when I began working as a customer service representative, we were a small organization located in a remote office park.

The fact that we now occupy a floor of the Main Street office building with over 150 employees continues to amaze me.

I am looking forward to spending more time with family and traveling the country in our RV. Although I will be sad to leave.

Please let me know if there are any extra steps I can take to facilitate this transfer.

Sincerely,

Frankin, RenitaEighth Example of Retirement Letter

Height Example of Retirement Letter

Bruce,

Please accept my resignation from Wayne Enterprises as Marketing Communications Director. My last day will be August 1, 2022.

The decision to retire has been made after much deliberation. Now that I have worked in the field for forty years, I believe it is a good time to begin completing my bucket list.

It was not easy for me to decide to leave the company. Having worked at Wayne Enterprises has been rewarding both professionally and personally. There are still a lot of memories associated with my first day as a college intern.

My intention was not to remain with such an innovative company, as you know. I was able to see the big picture with your help, however. Today, we are a force that is recognized both nationally and internationally.

In addition to your guidance, the bold, visionary leadership of our company contributed to the growth of our company.

My departure from the company coincides with a particularly hectic time. Despite my best efforts, I am unable to postpone my exit.

My position would be well served by an internal solution. I have a more than qualified marketing manager in Caroline Crown. It would be a pleasure to speak with you about this.

In case I can be of assistance during the switchover, please let me know. Contact us at (555)555–5555. As part of my responsibilities, I am responsible for making sure all work is completed to Wayne Enterprise’s stringent requirements. Having the opportunity to work with you has been a pleasure. I wish you continued success with your thriving business.

Sincerely,

Cash, Cole

Marketing/Communications

Ninth Example of Retirement Letter

Norman, Jamie

2366 Hanover Street

Whitestone, NY 11357

555–555–5555

jamie.norman@email.com

15 October 2022

Mr. Lippman

Head of Pendant Publishing

600 Madison Ave.

New York, New York

Respected Mr. Lippman,

Please accept my resignation effective‌ ‌November‌ ‌1,‌ ‌2022.

Over the course of my ten years at Pendant Publishing, I’ve had a great deal of fun and I’m quite grateful for all the assistance I’ve received.

It was a pleasure to wake up and go to work every day because of our outstanding corporate culture and the opportunities for promotion and professional advancement available to me.

While‌ ‌I am excited about retiring, I am going to miss being part of our team. ‌It’s my hope that I’ll be able to maintain the friendships I’ve formed here for a long time to come.

In case I can be of assistance prior to or following my departure, please let me know. ‌If I can assist in any way to ensure a smooth transfer to my successor, I would be delighted to do so.

Sincerely,

Signed (hard copy letter)

Norman, Jamie

Tenth Example of Retirement Letter

17 January 2023

Greg S. Jackson

Cyberdyne Systems

18144 El Camino Real,

Sunnyvale, CA

Respected Mrs. Duncan,

I‌ ‌am‌ ‌writing‌ ‌to‌ ‌inform you that I will be resigning from Cyberdyne Systems as of March 1, 2023. I’m grateful to have had this opportunity, and it was a difficult decision to make.

My development as a programmer and as a more seasoned member of the organization has been greatly assisted by your coaching.

I have been proud of Cyberdyne Systems’ ethics and success throughout my 25 years at the company. Starting as a mailroom clerk and currently serving as head programmer.

The portfolios of our clients have always been handled with the greatest care by my colleagues. It is our employees and services that have made Cyberdyne Systems the success it is today.

During my tenure as head of my division, I’ve increased our overall productivity by 800 percent, and I expect that trend to continue after‌ ‌I‌ ‌retire.

In light of the fact that the process of replacing me may take some time, I would like to offer my assistance in any way I can.

The greatest contender for this job is Troy Ledford, my current assistant.

Also, before I leave, I would be willing to teach any partners how to use the programmer I developed to track and manage the development of Skynet.

Over the next few months, I’ll be enjoying vacations with my wife as well as my granddaughter moving‌ ‌to‌ ‌college.

If Cyberdyne Systems has any openings for consultants, please let me know. ‌It has been a pleasure working with you over the last 25 years. I appreciate your concern and care.

Sincerely,

Greg S, Jackson

Questions and Answers

1. What is a letter of retirement?

Retirement letters tell your supervisor you're retiring. This informs your employer that you're departing, like a letter. A resignation letter also requests retirement benefits.

Supervisors frequently receive retirement letters and verbal resignations. Before submitting your retirement letter, meet to discuss your plans. This letter will be filed with your start date, salary, and benefits.

2. Why should you include a letter of retirement?

Your retirement letter should explain why you're leaving. When you quit, your manager and HR department usually know. Regardless, a retirement letter might help you leave on a positive tone. It ensures they have the necessary papers.

In your retirement letter, you tell the firm your plans so they can find your replacement. You may need to stay in touch with your company after sending your retirement letter until a successor is identified.

3. What information ought to be in your retirement letter?

Format it like an official letter. Include your retirement plans and retirement-specific statistics. Date may be most essential.

In some circumstances, benefits depend on when you resign and retire. A date on the letter helps HR or senior management verify when you gave notice and how long.

In addition to your usual salutation, address your letter to your manager or supervisor.

The letter's body should include your retirement date and transition arrangements. Tell them whether you plan to help with the transition or train a new employee. You may have a three-month time limit.

Tell your employer your job title, how long you've worked there, and your biggest successes. Personalize your letter by expressing gratitude for your career and outlining your retirement intentions. Finally, include your contact info.

4. Must I provide notice?

Two-week notice isn't required. Your company may require it. Some state laws contain exceptions.

Check your contract, company handbook, or HR to determine your retirement notice. Resigning may change the policy.

Regardless of your company's policy, notification is standard. Entry-level or junior jobs can be let go so the corporation can replace them.

Middle managers, high-level personnel, and specialists may take months to replace. Two weeks' notice is a courtesy. Start planning months ahead.

You can finish all jobs at that period. Prepare transition documents for coworkers and your replacement.

5. What is the ideal retirement age?

Depends on finances, state, and retirement plan. The average American retires at 62. The average retirement age is 66, according to Gallup's 2021 Economy and Personal Finance Survey.

Remember:

  • Before the age of 59 1/2, withdrawals from pre-tax retirement accounts, such as 401(k)s and IRAs, are subject to a penalty.

  • Benefits from Social Security can be accessed as early as age 62.

  • Medicare isn't available to you till you're 65,

  • Depending on the year of your birth, your Full Retirement Age (FRA) will be between 66 and 67 years old.

  • If you haven't taken them already, your Social Security benefits increase by 8% annually between ages 6 and 77.

Tora Northman

Tora Northman

3 years ago

Pixelmon NFTs are so bad, they are almost good!

Bored Apes prices continue to rise, HAPEBEAST launches, Invisible Friends hype continues to grow. Sadly, not all projects are as successful.
Of course, there are many factors to consider when buying an NFT. Is the project a scam? Will the reveal derail the project? Possibly, but when Pixelmon first teased its launch, it generated a lot of buzz.

With a primary sale mint price of 3 ETH ($8,100 USD), it started as an expensive project, with plenty of fans willing to invest in what was sold as a game. After it was revealed, it fell rapidly.
Why? It was overpromised and under delivered.

According to the project's creator[^1], the funds generated will be used to develop the artwork. "The Pixelmon reveal was wrong. This is what our Pixelmon look like in-game. "Despite the fud, I will not go anywhere," he wrote on Twitter. The goal remains. The funds will still be used to build our game. I will finish this project."

The project raised $70 million USD, but the NFTs buyers received were not the project's original teasers. Some call it "the worst NFT project ever," while others call it a complete scam.

But there's hope for some buyers. Kevin emerged from the ashes as the project was roasted over the fire.

A Minecraft character meets Salad Fingers - that's Kevin. He's a frog-like creature whose reveal was such a terrible NFT that it became part of history – and a meme.

If you're laughing at people paying $8K for a silly pixelated image, you might need to take it back. Precisely because of this, lucky holders who minted Kevin have been able to sell the now-memed NFT for over 8 ETH (around $24,000 USD), with some currently listed for 100 ETH.

Of course, Twitter has been awash in memes mocking those who invested in the project, because what else can you do when so many people lose money?

It's still unclear if the NFT project is a scam, but the team behind it was hired on Upwork. There's still hope for redemption, but Kevin's rise to fame appears to be the only positive outcome so far.

[^1] This is not the first time the creator (A 20-yo New Zealanders) has sought money via an online platform and had people claiming he under-delivered.  He raised $74,000 on Kickstarter for a card game called Psycho Chicken. There are hundreds of comments on the Kickstarter project saying they haven't received the product and pleading for a refund or an update.