More on Economics & Investing
Thomas Huault
3 years ago
A Mean Reversion Trading Indicator Inspired by Classical Mechanics Is The Kinetic Detrender
DATA MINING WITH SUPERALGORES
Old pots produce the best soup.
Science has always inspired indicator design. From physics to signal processing, many indicators use concepts from mechanical engineering, electronics, and probability. In Superalgos' Data Mining section, we've explored using thermodynamics and information theory to construct indicators and using statistical and probabilistic techniques like reduced normal law to take advantage of low probability events.
An asset's price is like a mechanical object revolving around its moving average. Using this approach, we could design an indicator using the oscillator's Total Energy. An oscillator's energy is finite and constant. Since we don't expect the price to follow the harmonic oscillator, this energy should deviate from the perfect situation, and the maximum of divergence may provide us valuable information on the price's moving average.
Definition of the Harmonic Oscillator in Few Words
Sinusoidal function describes a harmonic oscillator. The time-constant energy equation for a harmonic oscillator is:
With
Time saves energy.
In a mechanical harmonic oscillator, total energy equals kinetic energy plus potential energy. The formula for energy is the same for every kind of harmonic oscillator; only the terms of total energy must be adapted to fit the relevant units. Each oscillator has a velocity component (kinetic energy) and a position to equilibrium component (potential energy).
The Price Oscillator and the Energy Formula
Considering the harmonic oscillator definition, we must specify kinetic and potential components for our price oscillator. We define oscillator velocity as the rate of change and equilibrium position as the price's distance from its moving average.
Price kinetic energy:
It's like:
With
and
L is the number of periods for the rate of change calculation and P for the close price EMA calculation.
Total price oscillator energy =
Given that an asset's price can theoretically vary at a limitless speed and be endlessly far from its moving average, we don't expect this formula's outcome to be constrained. We'll normalize it using Z-Score for convenience of usage and readability, which also allows probabilistic interpretation.
Over 20 periods, we'll calculate E's moving average and standard deviation.
We calculated Z on BTC/USDT with L = 10 and P = 21 using Knime Analytics.
The graph is detrended. We added two horizontal lines at +/- 1.6 to construct a 94.5% probability zone based on reduced normal law tables. Price cycles to its moving average oscillate clearly. Red and green arrows illustrate where the oscillator crosses the top and lower limits, corresponding to the maximum/minimum price oscillation. Since the results seem noisy, we may apply a non-lagging low-pass or multipole filter like Butterworth or Laguerre filters and employ dynamic bands at a multiple of Z's standard deviation instead of fixed levels.
Kinetic Detrender Implementation in Superalgos
The Superalgos Kinetic detrender features fixed upper and lower levels and dynamic volatility bands.
The code is pretty basic and does not require a huge amount of code lines.
It starts with the standard definitions of the candle pointer and the constant declaration :
let candle = record.current
let len = 10
let P = 21
let T = 20
let up = 1.6
let low = 1.6Upper and lower dynamic volatility band constants are up and low.
We proceed to the initialization of the previous value for EMA :
if (variable.prevEMA === undefined) {
variable.prevEMA = candle.close
}And the calculation of EMA with a function (it is worth noticing the function is declared at the end of the code snippet in Superalgos) :
variable.ema = calculateEMA(P, candle.close, variable.prevEMA)
//EMA calculation
function calculateEMA(periods, price, previousEMA) {
let k = 2 / (periods + 1)
return price * k + previousEMA * (1 - k)
}The rate of change is calculated by first storing the right amount of close price values and proceeding to the calculation by dividing the current close price by the first member of the close price array:
variable.allClose.push(candle.close)
if (variable.allClose.length > len) {
variable.allClose.splice(0, 1)
}
if (variable.allClose.length === len) {
variable.roc = candle.close / variable.allClose[0]
} else {
variable.roc = 1
}Finally, we get energy with a single line:
variable.E = 1 / 2 * len * variable.roc + 1 / 2 * P * candle.close / variable.emaThe Z calculation reuses code from Z-Normalization-based indicators:
variable.allE.push(variable.E)
if (variable.allE.length > T) {
variable.allE.splice(0, 1)
}
variable.sum = 0
variable.SQ = 0
if (variable.allE.length === T) {
for (var i = 0; i < T; i++) {
variable.sum += variable.allE[i]
}
variable.MA = variable.sum / T
for (var i = 0; i < T; i++) {
variable.SQ += Math.pow(variable.allE[i] - variable.MA, 2)
}
variable.sigma = Math.sqrt(variable.SQ / T)
variable.Z = (variable.E - variable.MA) / variable.sigma
} else {
variable.Z = 0
}
variable.allZ.push(variable.Z)
if (variable.allZ.length > T) {
variable.allZ.splice(0, 1)
}
variable.sum = 0
variable.SQ = 0
if (variable.allZ.length === T) {
for (var i = 0; i < T; i++) {
variable.sum += variable.allZ[i]
}
variable.MAZ = variable.sum / T
for (var i = 0; i < T; i++) {
variable.SQ += Math.pow(variable.allZ[i] - variable.MAZ, 2)
}
variable.sigZ = Math.sqrt(variable.SQ / T)
} else {
variable.MAZ = variable.Z
variable.sigZ = variable.MAZ * 0.02
}
variable.upper = variable.MAZ + up * variable.sigZ
variable.lower = variable.MAZ - low * variable.sigZWe also update the EMA value.
variable.prevEMA = variable.EMA
Conclusion
We showed how to build a detrended oscillator using simple harmonic oscillator theory. Kinetic detrender's main line oscillates between 2 fixed levels framing 95% of the values and 2 dynamic levels, leading to auto-adaptive mean reversion zones.
Superalgos' Normalized Momentum data mine has the Kinetic detrender indication.
All the material here can be reused and integrated freely by linking to this article and Superalgos.
This post is informative and not financial advice. Seek expert counsel before trading. Risk using this material.
Ray Dalio
3 years ago
The latest “bubble indicator” readings.
As you know, I like to turn my intuition into decision rules (principles) that can be back-tested and automated to create a portfolio of alpha bets. I use one for bubbles. Having seen many bubbles in my 50+ years of investing, I described what makes a bubble and how to identify them in markets—not just stocks.
A bubble market has a high degree of the following:
- High prices compared to traditional values (e.g., by taking the present value of their cash flows for the duration of the asset and comparing it with their interest rates).
- Conditons incompatible with long-term growth (e.g., extrapolating past revenue and earnings growth rates late in the cycle).
- Many new and inexperienced buyers were drawn in by the perceived hot market.
- Broad bullish sentiment.
- Debt financing a large portion of purchases.
- Lots of forward and speculative purchases to profit from price rises (e.g., inventories that are more than needed, contracted forward purchases, etc.).
I use these criteria to assess all markets for bubbles. I have periodically shown you these for stocks and the stock market.
What Was Shown in January Versus Now
I will first describe the picture in words, then show it in charts, and compare it to the last update in January.
As of January, the bubble indicator showed that a) the US equity market was in a moderate bubble, but not an extreme one (ie., 70 percent of way toward the highest bubble, which occurred in the late 1990s and late 1920s), and b) the emerging tech companies (ie. As well, the unprecedented flood of liquidity post-COVID financed other bubbly behavior (e.g. SPACs, IPO boom, big pickup in options activity), making things bubbly. I showed which stocks were in bubbles and created an index of those stocks, which I call “bubble stocks.”
Those bubble stocks have popped. They fell by a third last year, while the S&P 500 remained flat. In light of these and other market developments, it is not necessarily true that now is a good time to buy emerging tech stocks.
The fact that they aren't at a bubble extreme doesn't mean they are safe or that it's a good time to get long. Our metrics still show that US stocks are overvalued. Once popped, bubbles tend to overcorrect to the downside rather than settle at “normal” prices.
The following charts paint the picture. The first shows the US equity market bubble gauge/indicator going back to 1900, currently at the 40% percentile. The charts also zoom in on the gauge in recent years, as well as the late 1920s and late 1990s bubbles (during both of these cases the gauge reached 100 percent ).
The chart below depicts the average bubble gauge for the most bubbly companies in 2020. Those readings are down significantly.
The charts below compare the performance of a basket of emerging tech bubble stocks to the S&P 500. Prices have fallen noticeably, giving up most of their post-COVID gains.
The following charts show the price action of the bubble slice today and in the 1920s and 1990s. These charts show the same market dynamics and two key indicators. These are just two examples of how a lot of debt financing stock ownership coupled with a tightening typically leads to a bubble popping.
Everything driving the bubbles in this market segment is classic—the same drivers that drove the 1920s bubble and the 1990s bubble. For instance, in the last couple months, it was how tightening can act to prick the bubble. Review this case study of the 1920s stock bubble (starting on page 49) from my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises to grasp these dynamics.
The following charts show the components of the US stock market bubble gauge. Since this is a proprietary indicator, I will only show you some of the sub-aggregate readings and some indicators.
Each of these six influences is measured using a number of stats. This is how I approach the stock market. These gauges are combined into aggregate indices by security and then for the market as a whole. The table below shows the current readings of these US equity market indicators. It compares current conditions for US equities to historical conditions. These readings suggest that we’re out of a bubble.
1. How High Are Prices Relatively?
This price gauge for US equities is currently around the 50th percentile.
2. Is price reduction unsustainable?
This measure calculates the earnings growth rate required to outperform bonds. This is calculated by adding up the readings of individual securities. This indicator is currently near the 60th percentile for the overall market, higher than some of our other readings. Profit growth discounted in stocks remains high.
Even more so in the US software sector. Analysts' earnings growth expectations for this sector have slowed, but remain high historically. P/Es have reversed COVID gains but remain high historical.
3. How many new buyers (i.e., non-existing buyers) entered the market?
Expansion of new entrants is often indicative of a bubble. According to historical accounts, this was true in the 1990s equity bubble and the 1929 bubble (though our data for this and other gauges doesn't go back that far). A flood of new retail investors into popular stocks, which by other measures appeared to be in a bubble, pushed this gauge above the 90% mark in 2020. The pace of retail activity in the markets has recently slowed to pre-COVID levels.
4. How Broadly Bullish Is Sentiment?
The more people who have invested, the less resources they have to keep investing, and the more likely they are to sell. Market sentiment is now significantly negative.
5. Are Purchases Being Financed by High Leverage?
Leveraged purchases weaken the buying foundation and expose it to forced selling in a downturn. The leverage gauge, which considers option positions as a form of leverage, is now around the 50% mark.
6. To What Extent Have Buyers Made Exceptionally Extended Forward Purchases?
Looking at future purchases can help assess whether expectations have become overly optimistic. This indicator is particularly useful in commodity and real estate markets, where forward purchases are most obvious. In the equity markets, I look at indicators like capital expenditure, or how much businesses (and governments) invest in infrastructure, factories, etc. It reflects whether businesses are projecting future demand growth. Like other gauges, this one is at the 40th percentile.
What one does with it is a tactical choice. While the reversal has been significant, future earnings discounting remains high historically. In either case, bubbles tend to overcorrect (sell off more than the fundamentals suggest) rather than simply deflate. But I wanted to share these updated readings with you in light of recent market activity.
Arthur Hayes
2 years ago
Contagion
(The author's opinions should not be used to make investment decisions or as a recommendation to invest.)
The pandemic and social media pseudoscience have made us all epidemiologists, for better or worse. Flattening the curve, social distancing, lockdowns—remember? Some of you may remember R0 (R naught), the number of healthy humans the average COVID-infected person infects. Thankfully, the world has moved on from Greater China's nightmare. Politicians have refocused their talent for misdirection on getting their constituents invested in the war for Russian Reunification or Russian Aggression, depending on your side of the iron curtain.
Humanity battles two fronts. A war against an invisible virus (I know your Commander in Chief might have told you COVID is over, but viruses don't follow election cycles and their economic impacts linger long after the last rapid-test clinic has closed); and an undeclared World War between US/NATO and Eurasia/Russia/China. The fiscal and monetary authorities' current policies aim to mitigate these two conflicts' economic effects.
Since all politicians are short-sighted, they usually print money to solve most problems. Printing money is the easiest and fastest way to solve most problems because it can be done immediately without much discussion. The alternative—long-term restructuring of our global economy—would hurt stakeholders and require an honest discussion about our civilization's state. Both of those requirements are non-starters for our short-sighted political friends, so whether your government practices capitalism, communism, socialism, or fascism, they all turn to printing money-ism to solve all problems.
Free money stimulates demand, so people buy crap. Overbuying shit raises prices. Inflation. Every nation has food, energy, or goods inflation. The once-docile plebes demand action when the latter two subsets of inflation rise rapidly. They will be heard at the polls or in the streets. What would you do to feed your crying hungry child?
Global central banks During the pandemic, the Fed, PBOC, BOJ, ECB, and BOE printed money to aid their governments. They worried about inflation and promised to remove fiat liquidity and tighten monetary conditions.
Imagine Nate Diaz's round-house kick to the face. The financial markets probably felt that way when the US and a few others withdrew fiat wampum. Sovereign debt markets suffered a near-record bond market rout.
The undeclared WW3 is intensifying, with recent gas pipeline attacks. The global economy is already struggling, and credit withdrawal will worsen the situation. The next pandemic, the Yield Curve Control (YCC) virus, is spreading as major central banks backtrack on inflation promises. All central banks eventually fail.
Here's a scorecard.
In order to save its financial system, BOE recently reverted to Quantitative Easing (QE).
BOJ Continuing YCC to save their banking system and enable affordable government borrowing.
ECB printing money to buy weak EU member bonds, but will soon start Quantitative Tightening (QT).
PBOC Restarting the money printer to give banks liquidity to support the falling residential property market.
Fed raising rates and QT-shrinking balance sheet.
80% of the world's biggest central banks are printing money again. Only the Fed has remained steadfast in the face of a financial market bloodbath, determined to end the inflation for which it is at least partially responsible—the culmination of decades of bad economic policies and a world war.
YCC printing is the worst for fiat currency and society. Because it necessitates central banks fixing a multi-trillion-dollar bond market. YCC central banks promise to infinitely expand their balance sheets to keep a certain interest rate metric below an unnatural ceiling. The market always wins, crushing humanity with inflation.
BOJ's YCC policy is longest-standing. The BOE joined them, and my essay this week argues that the ECB will follow. The ECB joining YCC would make 60% of major central banks follow this terrible policy. Since the PBOC is part of the Chinese financial system, the number could be 80%. The Chinese will lend any amount to meet their economic activity goals.
The BOE committed to a 13-week, GBP 65bn bond price-fixing operation. However, BOEs YCC may return. If you lose to the market, you're stuck. Since the BOE has announced that it will buy your Gilt at inflated prices, why would you not sell them all? Market participants taking advantage of this policy will only push the bank further into the hole it dug itself, so I expect the BOE to re-up this program and count them as YCC.
In a few trading days, the BOE went from a bank determined to slay inflation by raising interest rates and QT to buying an unlimited amount of UK Gilts. I expect the ECB to be dragged kicking and screaming into a similar policy. Spoiler alert: big daddy Fed will eventually die from the YCC virus.
Threadneedle St, London EC2R 8AH, UK
Before we discuss the BOE's recent missteps, a chatroom member called the British royal family the Kardashians with Crowns, which made me laugh. I'm sad about royal attention. If the public was as interested in energy and economic policies as they are in how the late Queen treated Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, UK politicians might not have been able to get away with energy and economic fairy tales.
The BOE printed money to recover from COVID, as all good central banks do. For historical context, this chart shows the BOE's total assets as a percentage of GDP since its founding in the 18th century.
The UK has had a rough three centuries. Pandemics, empire wars, civil wars, world wars. Even so, the BOE's recent money printing was its most aggressive ever!
BOE Total Assets as % of GDP (white) vs. UK CPI
Now, inflation responded slowly to the bank's most aggressive monetary loosening. King Charles wishes the gold line above showed his popularity, but it shows his subjects' suffering.
The BOE recognized early that its money printing caused runaway inflation. In its August 2022 report, the bank predicted that inflation would reach 13% by year end before aggressively tapering in 2023 and 2024.
Aug 2022 BOE Monetary Policy Report
The BOE was the first major central bank to reduce its balance sheet and raise its policy rate to help.
The BOE first raised rates in December 2021. Back then, JayPow wasn't even considering raising rates.
UK policymakers, like most developed nations, believe in energy fairy tales. Namely, that the developed world, which grew in lockstep with hydrocarbon use, could switch to wind and solar by 2050. The UK's energy import bill has grown while coal, North Sea oil, and possibly stranded shale oil have been ignored.
WW3 is an economic war that is balkanizing energy markets, which will continue to inflate. A nation that imports energy and has printed the most money in its history cannot avoid inflation.
The chart above shows that energy inflation is a major cause of plebe pain.
The UK is hit by a double whammy: the BOE must remove credit to reduce demand, and energy prices must rise due to WW3 inflation. That's not economic growth.
Boris Johnson was knocked out by his country's poor economic performance, not his lockdown at 10 Downing St. Prime Minister Truss and her merry band of fools arrived with the tried-and-true government remedy: goodies for everyone.
She released a budget full of economic stimulants. She cut corporate and individual taxes for the rich. She plans to give poor people vouchers for higher energy bills. Woohoo! Margret Thatcher's new pants suit.
My buddy Jim Bianco said Truss budget's problem is that it works. It will boost activity at a time when inflation is over 10%. Truss' budget didn't include austerity measures like tax increases or spending cuts, which the bond market wanted. The bond market protested.
30-year Gilt yield chart. Yields spiked the most ever after Truss announced her budget, as shown. The Gilt market is the longest-running bond market in the world.
The Gilt market showed the pole who's boss with Cardi B.
Before this, the BOE was super-committed to fighting inflation. To their credit, they raised short-term rates and shrank their balance sheet. However, rapid yield rises threatened to destroy the entire highly leveraged UK financial system overnight, forcing them to change course.
Accounting gimmicks allowed by regulators for pension funds posed a systemic threat to the UK banking system. UK pension funds could use interest rate market levered derivatives to match liabilities. When rates rise, short rate derivatives require more margin. The pension funds spent all their money trying to pick stonks and whatever else their sell side banker could stuff them with, so the historic rate spike would have bankrupted them overnight. The FT describes BOE-supervised chicanery well.
To avoid a financial apocalypse, the BOE in one morning abandoned all their hard work and started buying unlimited long-dated Gilts to drive prices down.
Another reminder to never fight a central bank. The 30-year Gilt is shown above. After the BOE restarted the money printer on September 28, this bond rose 30%. Thirty-fucking-percent! Developed market sovereign bonds rarely move daily. You're invested in His Majesty's government obligations, not a Chinese property developer's offshore USD bond.
The political need to give people goodies to help them fight the terrible economy ran into a financial reality. The central bank protected the UK financial system from asset-price deflation because, like all modern economies, it is debt-based and highly levered. As bad as it is, inflation is not their top priority. The BOE example demonstrated that. To save the financial system, they abandoned almost a year of prudent monetary policy in a few hours. They also started the endgame.
Let's play Central Bankers Say the Darndest Things before we go to the continent (and sorry if you live on a continent other than Europe, but you're not culturally relevant).
Pre-meltdown BOE output:
FT, October 17, 2021 On Sunday, the Bank of England governor warned that it must act to curb inflationary pressure, ignoring financial market moves that have priced in the first interest rate increase before the end of the year.
On July 19, 2022, Gov. Andrew Bailey spoke. Our 2% inflation target is unwavering. We'll do our job.
August 4th 2022 MPC monetary policy announcement According to its mandate, the MPC will sustainably return inflation to 2% in the medium term.
Catherine Mann, MPC member, September 5, 2022 speech. Fast and forceful monetary tightening, possibly followed by a hold or reversal, is better than gradualism because it promotes inflation expectations' role in bringing inflation back to 2% over the medium term.
When their financial system nearly collapsed in one trading session, they said:
The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee warned on 28 September that gilt market dysfunction threatened UK financial stability. It advised action and supported the Bank's urgent gilt market purchases for financial stability.
It works when the price goes up but not down. Is my crypto portfolio dysfunctional enough to get a BOE bailout?
Next, the EU and ECB. The ECB is also fighting inflation, but it will also succumb to the YCC virus for the same reasons as the BOE.
Frankfurt am Main, ECB Tower, Sonnemannstraße 20, 60314
Only France and Germany matter economically in the EU. Modern European history has focused on keeping Germany and Russia apart. German manufacturing and cheap Russian goods could change geopolitics.
France created the EU to keep Germany down, and the Germans only cooperated because of WWII guilt. France's interests are shared by the US, which lurks in the shadows to prevent a Germany-Russia alliance. A weak EU benefits US politics. Avoid unification of Eurasia. (I paraphrased daddy Felix because I thought quoting a large part of his most recent missive would get me spanked.)
As with everything, understanding Germany's energy policy is the best way to understand why the German economy is fundamentally fucked and why that spells doom for the EU. Germany, the EU's main economic engine, is being crippled by high energy prices, threatening a depression. This economic downturn threatens the union. The ECB may have to abandon plans to shrink its balance sheet and switch to YCC to save the EU's unholy political union.
France did the smart thing and went all in on nuclear energy, which is rare in geopolitics. 70% of electricity is nuclear-powered. Their manufacturing base can survive Russian gas cuts. Germany cannot.
My boy Zoltan made this great graphic showing how screwed Germany is as cheap Russian gas leaves the industrial economy.
$27 billion of Russian gas powers almost $2 trillion of German economic output, a 75x energy leverage. The German public was duped into believing the same energy fairy tales as their politicians, and they overwhelmingly allowed the Green party to dismantle any efforts to build a nuclear energy ecosystem over the past several decades. Germany, unlike France, must import expensive American and Qatari LNG via supertankers due to Nordstream I and II pipeline sabotage.
American gas exports to Europe are touted by the media. Gas is cheap because America isn't the Western world's swing producer. If gas prices rise domestically in America, the plebes would demand the end of imports to avoid paying more to heat their homes.
German goods would cost much more in this scenario. German producer prices rose 46% YoY in August. The German current account is rapidly approaching zero and will soon be negative.
German PPI Change YoY
German Current Account
The reason this matters is a curious construction called TARGET2. Let’s hear from the horse’s mouth what exactly this beat is:
TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. Central banks and commercial banks can submit payment orders in euro to TARGET2, where they are processed and settled in central bank money, i.e. money held in an account with a central bank.
Source: ECB
Let me explain this in plain English for those unfamiliar with economic dogma.
This chart shows intra-EU credits and debits. TARGET2. Germany, Europe's powerhouse, is owed money. IOU-buying Greeks buy G-wagons. The G-wagon pickup truck is badass.
If all EU countries had fiat currencies, the Deutsche Mark would be stronger than the Italian Lira, according to the chart above. If Europe had to buy goods from non-EU countries, the Euro would be much weaker. Credits and debits between smaller political units smooth out imbalances in other federal-provincial-state political systems. Financial and fiscal unions allow this. The EU is financial, so the centre cannot force the periphery to settle their imbalances.
Greece has never had to buy Fords or Kias instead of BMWs, but what if Germany had to shut down its auto manufacturing plants due to energy shortages?
Italians have done well buying ammonia from Germany rather than China, but what if BASF had to close its Ludwigshafen facility due to a lack of affordable natural gas?
I think you're seeing the issue.
Instead of Germany, EU countries would owe foreign producers like America, China, South Korea, Japan, etc. Since these countries aren't tied into an uneconomic union for politics, they'll demand hard fiat currency like USD instead of Euros, which have become toilet paper (or toilet plastic).
Keynesian economists have a simple solution for politicians who can't afford market prices. Government debt can maintain production. The debt covers the difference between what a business can afford and the international energy market price.
Germans are monetary policy conservative because of the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation. The Bundesbank is the only thing preventing ECB profligacy. Germany must print its way out without cheap energy. Like other nations, they will issue more bonds for fiscal transfers.
More Bunds mean lower prices. Without German monetary discipline, the Euro would have become a trash currency like any other emerging market that imports energy and food and has uncompetitive labor.
Bunds price all EU country bonds. The ECB's money printing is designed to keep the spread of weak EU member bonds vs. Bunds low. Everyone falls with Bunds.
Like the UK, German politicians seeking re-election will likely cause a Bunds selloff. Bond investors will understandably reject their promises of goodies for industry and individuals to offset the lack of cheap Russian gas. Long-dated Bunds will be smoked like UK Gilts. The ECB will face a wave of ultra-levered financial players who will go bankrupt if they mark to market their fixed income derivatives books at higher Bund yields.
Some treats People: Germany will spend 200B to help consumers and businesses cope with energy prices, including promoting renewable energy.
That, ladies and germs, is why the ECB will immediately abandon QT, move to a stop-gap QE program to normalize the Bund and every other EU bond market, and eventually graduate to YCC as the market vomits bonds of all stripes into Christine Lagarde's loving hands. She probably has soft hands.
The 30-year Bund market has noticed Germany's economic collapse. 2021 yields skyrocketed.
30-year Bund Yield
ECB Says the Darndest Things:
Because inflation is too high and likely to stay above our target for a long time, we took today's decision and expect to raise interest rates further.- Christine Lagarde, ECB Press Conference, Sept 8.
The Governing Council will adjust all of its instruments to stabilize inflation at 2% over the medium term. July 21 ECB Monetary Decision
Everyone struggles with high inflation. The Governing Council will ensure medium-term inflation returns to two percent. June 9th ECB Press Conference
I'm excited to read the after. Like the BOE, the ECB may abandon their plans to shrink their balance sheet and resume QE due to debt market dysfunction.
Eighty Percent
I like YCC like dark chocolate over 80%. ;).
Can 80% of the world's major central banks' QE and/or YCC overcome Sir Powell's toughness on fungible risky asset prices?
Gold and crypto are fungible global risky assets. Satoshis and gold bars are the same in New York, London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Shanghai.
As more Euros, Yen, Renminbi, and Pounds are printed, people will move their savings into Dollars or other stores of value. As the Fed raises rates and reduces its balance sheet, the USD will strengthen. Gold/EUR and BTC/JPY may also attract buyers.
Gold and crypto markets are much smaller than the trillions in fiat money that will be printed, so they will appreciate in non-USD currencies. These flows only matter in one instance because we trade the global or USD price. Arbitrage occurs when BTC/EUR rises faster than EUR/USD. Here is how it works:
An investor based in the USD notices that BTC is expensive in EUR terms.
Instead of buying BTC, this investor borrows USD and then sells it.
After that, they sell BTC and buy EUR.
Then they choose to sell EUR and buy USD.
The investor receives their profit after repaying the USD loan.
This triangular FX arbitrage will align the global/USD BTC price with the elevated EUR, JPY, CNY, and GBP prices.
Even if the Fed continues QT, which I doubt they can do past early 2023, small stores of value like gold and Bitcoin may rise as non-Fed central banks get serious about printing money.
“Arthur, this is just more copium,” you might retort.
Patience. This takes time. Economic and political forcing functions take time. The BOE example shows that bond markets will reject politicians' policies to appease voters. Decades of bad energy policy have no immediate fix. Money printing is the only politically viable option. Bond yields will rise as bond markets see more stimulative budgets, and the over-leveraged fiat debt-based financial system will collapse quickly, followed by a monetary bailout.
America has enough food, fuel, and people. China, Europe, Japan, and the UK suffer. America can be autonomous. Thus, the Fed can prioritize domestic political inflation concerns over supplying the world (and most of its allies) with dollars. A steady flow of dollars allows other nations to print their currencies and buy energy in USD. If the strongest player wins, everyone else loses.
I'm making a GDP-weighted index of these five central banks' money printing. When ready, I'll share its rate of change. This will show when the 80%'s money printing exceeds the Fed's tightening.
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Michael Le
3 years ago
Union LA x Air Jordan 2 “Future Is Now” PREVIEW
With the help of Virgil Abloh and Union LA‘s Chris Gibbs, it's now clear that Jordan Brand intended to bring the Air Jordan 2 back in 2022.
The “Future Is Now” collection includes two colorways of MJ's second signature as well as an extensive range of apparel and accessories.
“We wanted to juxtapose what some futuristic gear might look like after being worn and patina'd,”
Union stated on the collaboration's landing page.
“You often see people's future visions that are crisp and sterile. We thought it would be cool to wear it in and make it organic...”
The classic co-branding appears on short-sleeve tees, hoodies, and sweat shorts/sweat pants, all lightly distressed at the hems and seams.
Also, a filtered black-and-white photo of MJ graces the adjacent long sleeves, labels stitch into the socks, and the Jumpman logo adorns the four caps.
Liner jackets and flight pants will also be available, adding reimagined militaria to a civilian ensemble.
The Union LA x Air Jordan 2 (Grey Fog and Rattan) shares many of the same beats. Vintage suedes show age, while perforations and detailing reimagine Bruce Kilgore's design for the future.
The “UN/LA” tag across the modified eye stays, the leather patch across the tongue, and the label that wraps over the lateral side of the collar complete the look.
The footwear will also include a Crater Slide in the “Grey Fog” color scheme.
BUYING
On 4/9 and 4/10 from 9am-3pm, Union LA will be giving away a pair of Air Jordan 2s at their La Brea storefront (110 S. LA BREA AVE. LA, CA 90036). The raffle is only open to LA County residents with a valid CA ID. You must enter by 11:59pm on 4/10 to win. Winners will be notified via email.
Alex Mathers
2 years ago
12 habits of the zenith individuals I know
Calmness is a vital life skill.
It aids communication. It boosts creativity and performance.
I've studied calm people's habits for years. Commonalities:
Have mastered the art of self-humor.
Protectors take their job seriously, draining the room's energy.
They are fixated on positive pursuits like making cool things, building a strong physique, and having fun with others rather than on depressing influences like the news and gossip.
Every day, spend at least 20 minutes moving, whether it's walking, yoga, or lifting weights.
Discover ways to take pleasure in life's challenges.
Since perspective is malleable, they change their view.
Set your own needs first.
Stressed people neglect themselves and wonder why they struggle.
Prioritize self-care.
Don't ruin your life to please others.
Make something.
Calm people create more than react.
They love creating beautiful things—paintings, children, relationships, and projects.
Don’t hold their breath.
If you're stressed or angry, you may be surprised how much time you spend holding your breath and tightening your belly.
Release, breathe, and relax to find calm.
Stopped rushing.
Rushing is disadvantageous.
Calm people handle life better.
Are aware of their own dietary requirements.
They avoid junk food and eat foods that keep them healthy, happy, and calm.
Don’t take anything personally.
Stressed people control everything.
Self-conscious.
Calm people put others and their work first.
Keep their surroundings neat.
Maintaining an uplifting and clutter-free environment daily calms the mind.
Minimise negative people.
Calm people are ruthless with their boundaries and avoid negative and drama-prone people.
Sea Launch
3 years ago
📖 Guide to NFT terms: an NFT glossary.
NFT lingo can be overwhelming. As the NFT market matures and expands so does its own jargon, slang, colloquialisms or acronyms.
This ever-growing NFT glossary goal is to unpack key NFT terms to help you better understand the NFT market or at least not feel like a total n00b in a conversation about NFTs on Reddit, Discord or Twitter.
#
1:1 Art
Art where each piece is one of a kind (1 of 1). Unlike 10K projects, PFP or Generative Art collections have a cap of NFTs released that can range from a few hundreds to 10K.
1/1 of X
Contrary to 1:1 Art, 1/1 of X means each NFT is unique, but part of a large and cohesive collection. E.g: Fidenzas by Tyler Hobbs or Crypto Punks (each Punk is 1/1 of 10,000).
10K Project
A type of NFT collection that consists of approximately 10,000 NFTs (but not strictly).
A
AB
ArtBlocks, the most important platform for generative art currently.
AFAIK
As Far As I Know.
Airdrop
Distribution of an NFT token directly into a crypto wallet for free. Can be used as a marketing campaign or as scam by airdropping fake tokens to empty someone’s wallet.
Alpha
The first or very primitive release of a project. Or Investment term to track how a certain investment outdoes the market. E.g: Alpha of 1.0 = 1% improvement or Alpha of 20.0 = 20% improvement.
Altcoin
Any other crypto that is not Bitcoin. Bitcoin Maximalists can also refer to them as shitcoins.
AMA
Ask Me Anything. NFT creators or artists do sessions where anyone can ask questions about the NFT project, team, vision, etc. Usually hosted on Discord, but also on Reddit or even Youtube.
Ape
Someone can be aping, ape in or aped on an NFT meaning someone is taking a large position relative to its own portfolio size. Some argue that when someone apes can mean that they're following the hype, out of FOMO or without due diligence. Not related directly to the Bored Ape Yatch Club.
ATH
All-Time High. When a NFT project or token reaches the highest price to date.
Avatar project
An NFT collection that consists of avatars that people can use as their profile picture (see PFP) in social media to show they are part of an NFT community like Crypto Punks.
Axie Infinity
ETH blockchain-based game where players battle and trade Axies (digital pets). The main ERC-20 tokens used are Axie Infinity Shards (AXS) and Smooth Love Potions (formerly Small Love Potion) (SLP).
Axie Infinity Shards
AXS is an Eth token that powers the Axie Infinity game.
B
Bag Holder
Someone who holds its position in a crypto or keeps an NFT until it's worthless.
BAYC
Bored Ape Yacht Club. A very successful PFP 1/1 of 10,000 individual ape characters collection. People use BAYC as a Twitter profile picture to brag about being part of this NFT community.
Bearish
Borrowed finance slang meaning someone is doubtful about the current market and that it will crash.
Bear Market
When the Crypto or NFT market is going down in value.
Bitcoin (BTC)
First and original cryptocurrency as outlined in a whitepaper by the anonymous creator(s) Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin Maximalist
Believer that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency needed. All other cryptocurrencies are altcoins or shitcoins.
Blockchain
Distributed, decentralized, immutable database that is the basis of trust in Web 3.0 technology.
Bluechip
When an NFT project has a long track record of success and its value is sustained over time, therefore considered a solid investment.
BTD
Buy The Dip. A bear market can be an opportunity for crypto investors to buy a crypto or NFT at a lower price.
Bullish
Borrowed finance slang meaning someone is optimistic that a market will increase in value aka moon.
Bull market
When the Crypto or NFT market is going up and up in value.
Burn
Common crypto strategy to destroy or delete tokens from the circulation supply intentionally and permanently in order to limit supply and increase the value.
Buying on secondary
Whenever you don’t mint an NFT directly from the project, you can always buy it in secondary NFT marketplaces like OpenSea. Most NFT sales are secondary market sales.
C
Cappin or Capping
Slang for lying or faking. Opposed to no cap which means “no lie”.
Coinbase
Nasdaq listed US cryptocurrency exchange. Coinbase Wallet is one of Coinbase’s products where users can use a Chrome extension or app hot wallet to store crypto and NFTs.
Cold wallet
Otherwise called hardware wallet or cold storage. It’s a physical device to store your cryptocurrencies and/or NFTs offline. They are not connected to the Internet so are at less risk of being compromised.
Collection
A set of NFTs under a common theme as part of a NFT drop or an auction sale in marketplaces like OpenSea or Rarible.
Collectible
A collectible is an NFT that is a part of a wider NFT collection, usually part of a 10k project, PFP project or NFT Game.
Collector
Someone who buys NFTs to build an NFT collection, be part of a NFT community or for speculative purposes to make a profit.
Cope
The opposite of FOMO. When someone doesn’t buy an NFT because one is still dealing with a previous mistake of not FOMOing at a fraction of the price. So choosing to stay out.
Consensus mechanism
Method of authenticating and validating a transaction on a blockchain without the need to trust or rely on a central authority. Examples of consensus mechanisms are Proof of Work (PoW) or Proof of Stake (PoS).
Cozomo de’ Medici
Twitter alias used by Snoop Dogg for crypto and NFT chat.
Creator
An NFT creator is a person that creates the asset for the NFT idea, vision and in many cases the art (e.g. a jpeg, audio file, video file).
Crowsale
Where a crowdsale is the sale of a token that will be used in the business, an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) is the sale of a token that’s linked to the value of the business. Buying an ICO token is akin to buying stock in the company because it entitles you a share of the earnings and profits. Also, some tokens give you voting rights similar to holding stock in the business. The US Securities and Exchange Commission recently ruled that ICOs, but not crowdselling, will be treated as the sale of a security. This basically means that all ICOs must be registered like IPOs and offered only to accredited investors. This dramatically increases the costs and limits the pool of potential buyers.
Crypto Bags/Bags
Refers to how much cryptocurrencies someone holds, as in their bag of coins.
Cryptocurrency
The native coin of a blockchain (or protocol coin), secured by cryptography to be exchanged within a Peer 2 Peer economic system. E.g: Bitcoin (BTC) for the Bitcoin blockchain, Ether (ETH) for the Ethereum blockchain, etc.
Crypto community
The community of a specific crypto or NFT project. NFT communities use Twitter and Discord as their primary social media to hang out.
Crypto exchange
Where someone can buy, sell or trade cryptocurrencies and tokens.
Cryptography
The foundation of blockchain technology. The use of mathematical theory and computer science to encrypt or decrypt information.
CryptoKitties
One of the first and most popular NFT based blockchain games. In 2017, the NFT project almost broke the Ethereum blockchain and increased the gas prices dramatically.
CryptoPunk
Currently one of the most valuable blue chip NFT projects. It was created by Larva Labs. Crypto Punk holders flex their NFT as their profile picture on Twitter.
CT
Crypto Twitter, the crypto-community on Twitter.
Cypherpunks
Movement in the 1980s, advocating for the use of strong cryptography and privacy-enhancing technologies as a route to social and political change. The movement contributed and shaped blockchain tech as we know today.
D
DAO
Stands for Decentralized Autonomous Organization. When a NFT project is structured like a DAO, it grants all the NFT holders voting rights, control over future actions and the NFT’s project direction and vision. Many NFT projects are also organized as DAO to be a community-driven project.
Dapp
Mobile or web based decentralized application that interacts on a blockchain via smart contracts. E.g: Dapp is the frontend and the smart contract is the backend.
DCA
Acronym for Dollar Cost Averaging. An investment strategy to reduce the impact of crypto market volatility. E.g: buying into a crypto asset on a regular monthly basis rather than a big one time purchase.
Ded
Abbreviation for dead like "I sold my Punk for 90 ETH. I am ded."
DeFi
Short for Decentralized Finance. Blockchain alternative for traditional finance, where intermediaries like banks or brokerages are replaced by smart contracts to offer financial services like trading, lending, earning interest, insure, etc.
Degen
Short for degenerate, a gambler who buys into unaudited or unknown NFT or DeFi projects, without proper research hoping to chase high profits.
Delist
No longer offer an NFT for sale on a secondary market like Opensea. NFT Marketplaces can delist an NFT that infringes their rules. Or NFT owners can choose to delist their NFTs (has long as they have sufficient funds for the gas fees) due to price surges to avoid their NFT being bought or sold for a higher price.
Derivative
Projects derived from the original project that reinforces the value and importance of the original NFT. E.g: "alternative" punks.
Dev
A skilled professional who can build NFT projects using smart contracts and blockchain technology.
Dex
Decentralised Exchange that allows for peer-to-peer trustless transactions that don’t rely on a centralized authority to take place. E.g: Uniswap, PancakeSwap, dYdX, Curve Finance, SushiSwap, 1inch, etc.
Diamond Hands
Someone who believes and holds a cryptocurrency or NFT regardless of the crypto or NFT market fluctuations.
Discord
Chat app heavily used by crypto and NFT communities for knowledge sharing and shilling.
DLT
Acronym for Distributed Ledger Technology. It’s a protocol that allows the secure functioning of a decentralized database, through cryptography. This technological infrastructure scraps the need for a central authority to keep in check manipulation or exploitation of the network.
Dog coin
It’s a memecoin based on the Japanese dog breed, Shiba Inu, first popularised by Dogecoin. Other notable coins are Shiba Inu or Floki Inu. These dog coins are frequently subjected to pump and dumps and are extremely volatile. The original dog coin DOGE was created as a joke in 2013. Elon Musk is one of Dogecoin's most famous supporters.
Doxxed/Doxed
When the identity of an NFT team member, dev or creator is public, known or verifiable. In the NFT market, when a NFT team is doxed it’s a usually sign of confidence and transparency for NFT collectors to ensure they will not be scammed for an anonymous creator.
Drop
The release of an NFT (single or collection) into the NFT market.
DYOR
Acronym for Do Your Own Research. A common expression used in the crypto or NFT community to disclaim responsibility for the financial/strategy advice someone is providing the community and to avoid being called out by others in theNFT or crypto community.
E
EIP-1559 EIP
Referring to Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, commonly known as the London Fork. It’s an upgrade to the Ethereum protocol code to improve the blockchain security and scalability. The major change consists in shifting from a proof-of-work consensus mechanism (PoW) to a low energy and lower gas fees proof-of-stake system (PoS).
ERC-1155
Stands for Ethereum Request for Comment-1155. A multi-token standard that can represent any number of fungible (ERC-20) and non-fungible tokens (ERC-721).
ERC-20
Ethereum Request for Comment-20 is a standard defining a fungible token like a cryptocurrency.
ERC-721
Ethereum Request for Comment-721 is a standard defining a non-fungible token (NFT).
ETH
Aka Ether, the currency symbol for the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain.
ETH2.0
Also known as the London Fork or EIP-1559 EIP. It’s an upgrade to the Ethereum network to improve the network’s security and scalability. The most dramatic change is the shift from the proof-of-work consensus mechanism (PoW) to proof-of-stake system (PoS).
Ether
Or ETH, the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum blockchain.
Ethereum
Network protocol that allows users to create and run smart contracts over a decentralized network.
F
FCFS
Acronym for First Come First Served. Commonly used strategy in a NFT collection drop when the demand surpasses the supply.
Few
Short for "few understand". Similar to the irony behind the "probably nothing" expression. Like X person bought into a popular NFT, because it understands its long term value.
Fiat Currencies or Money
National government-issued currencies like the US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR) or Great British Pound (GBP) that are not backed by a commodity like silver or gold. FIAT means an authoritative or arbitrary order like a government decree.
Flex
Slang for showing off. In the crypto community, it’s a Lamborghini or a gold Rolex. In the NFT world, it’s a CryptoPunk or BAYC PFP on Twitter.
Flip
Quickly buying and selling crypto or NFTs to make a profit.
Flippening
Colloquial expression coined in 2017 for when Ethereum’s market capitalisation surpasses Bitcoin’s.
Floor Price
It means the lowest asking price for an NFT collection or subset of a collection on a secondary market like OpenSea.
Floor Sweep
Refers when a NFT collector or investor buys all the lowest listed NFTs on a secondary NFT marketplace.
FOMO
Acronym for Fear Of Missing Out. Buying a crypto or NFT out of fear of missing out on the next big thing.
FOMO-in
Buying a crypto or NFT regardless if it's at the top of the market for FOMO.
Fractionalize
Turning one NFT like a Crypto Punk into X number of fractions ERC-20 tokens that prove ownership of that Punk. This allows for i) collective ownership of an NFT, ii) making an expensive NFT affordable for the common NFT collector and iii) adds more liquidity to a very illiquid NFT market.
FR
Abbreviation for For Real?
Fren
Means Friend and what people in the NFT community call each other in an endearing and positive way.
Foundation
An exclusive, by invitation only, NFT marketplace that specializes in NFT art.
Fungible
Means X can be traded for another X and still hold the same value. E.g: My dollars = your dollars. My 1 ether = your 1 ether. My casino chip = your casino chip. On Ethereum, fungible tokens are defined by the ERC-20 standard.
FUD
Acronym for Fear Uncertainty Doubt. It can be a) when someone spreads negative and sometimes false news to discredit a certain crypto or NFT project. Or b) the overall negative feeling regarding the future of the NFT/Crypto project or market, especially when going through a bear market.
Fudder
Someone who has FUD or engages in FUD about a NFT project.
Fudding your own bags
When an NFT collector or crypto investor speaks negatively about an NFT or crypto project he/she has invested in or has a stake in. Usually negative comments about the team or vision.
G
G
Means Gangster. A term of endearment used amongst the NFT Community.
Gas/Gas fees/Gas prices
The fee charged to complete a transaction in a blockchain. These gas prices vary tremendously between the blockchains, the consensus mechanism used to validate transactions or the number of transactions being made at a specific time.
Gas war
When a lot of NFT collectors (or bots) are trying to mint an NFT at once and therefore resulting in gas price surge.
Generative art
Artwork that is algorithmically created by code with unique traits and rarity.
Genesis drop
It refers to the first NFT drop a creator makes on an NFT auction platform.
GG
Interjection for Good Game.
GM
Interjection for Good Morning.
GMI
Acronym for Going to Make It. Opposite of NGMI (NOT Going to Make It).
GOAT
Acronym for Greatest Of All Time.
GTD
Acronym for Going To Dust. When a token or NFT project turns out to be a bad investment.
GTFO
Get The F*ck Out, as in “gtfo with that fud dude” if someone is talking bull.
GWEI
One billionth of an Ether (ETH) also known as a Shannon / Nanoether / Nano — unit of account used to price Ethereum gas transactions.
H
HEN (Hic Et Nunc)
A popular NFT art marketplace for art built on the Tezos blockchain. Big NFT marketplace for inexpensive NFTs but not a very user-friendly UI/website.
HODL
Misspelling of HOLD coined in an old Reddit post. Synonym with “Hold On for Dear Life” meaning hold your coin or NFT until the end, whether that they’ll moon or dust.
Hot wallet
Wallets connected to the Internet, less secure than cold wallet because they’re more susceptible to hacks.
Hype
Term used to show excitement or anticipation about an upcoming crypto project or NFT.
I
ICO
Acronym for Initial Coin Offering. It’s the crypto equivalent to a stocks’ IPO (Initial Public Offering) but with far less scrutiny or regulation (leading to a lot of scams). ICO’s are a popular way for crypto projects to raise funds.
IDO
Acronym for Initial Dex Offering. To put it simply it means to launch NFTs or tokens via a decentralized liquidity exchange. It’s a common fundraising method used by upcoming crypto or NFT projects. Many consider IDOs a far better fundraising alternative to ICOs.
IDK
Acronym for I Don’t Know.
IDEK
Acronym for I Don’t Even Know.
Imma
Short for I’m going to be.
IRL
Acronym for In Real Life. Refers to the physical world outside of the online/virtual world of crypto, NFTs, gaming or social media.
IPFS
Acronym for Interplanetary File System. A peer-to-peer file storage system using hashes to recall and preserve the integrity of the file, commonly used to store NFTs outside of the blockchain.
It’s Money Laundering
Someone can use this expression to suggest that NFT prices aren’t real and that actually people are using NFTs to launder money, without providing much proof or explanation on how it works.
IYKYK
Stands for If You Know, You Know This. Similar to the expression "few", used when someone buys into a popular crypto or NFT project, slightly because of FOMO but also because it believes in its long term value.
J
JPEG/JPG
File format typically used to encode NFT art. Some people also use Jpeg to mock people buying NFTs as in “All that money for a jpeg”.
K
KMS
Short for Kill MySelf.
L
Larva Labs/ LL
NFT Creators behind the popular NFT projects like Cryptopunks,Meebits or Autoglyphs.
Laser eyes
Bitcoin meme signalling support for BTC and/or it will break the $100k per coin valuation.
LFG
Acronym for Let’s F*cking Go! A common rallying call used in the crypto or NFT community to lead people into buying an NFT or a crypto.
Liquidity
Term that means that a token or NFT has a high volume activity in the crypto/NFT market. It’s easily sold and resold. But usually the NFT market it’s illiquid when compared to the general crypto market, due to the non-fungibility nature of an NFT (there are less buyers for every NFTs out there).
LMFAO
Stands for Laughing My F*cking Ass Off.
Looks Rare
Ironic expression commonly used in the NFT Community. Rarity is a driver of an NFT’s value.
London Hard Fork
Known as EIP-1559, was an Ethereum code upgrade proposal designed to improve the blockchain security and scalability. It’s major change is to shift from PoW to PoS consensus mechanism.
Long run
Means someone is committed to the NFT market or an NFT project in the long term.
M
Maximalist
Typically refers to Bitcoin Maximalists. People who only believe that Bitcoin is the most secure and resilient blockchain. For Maximalists, all other cryptocurrencies are shitcoins therefore a waste of time, development and money.
McDonald's
Common and ironic expression amongst the crypto community. It means that Mcdonald’s is always a valid backup plan or career in the case all cryptocurrencies crash and disappear.
Meatspace
Synonymous with IRL - In Real Life.
Memecoin
Cryptocurrency like Dogecoin that is based on an internet joke or meme.
Metamask
Popular crypto hot wallet platform to store crypto and NFTs.
Metaverse
Term was coined by writer Neal Stephenson in the 1992 dystopian novel “Snow Crash”. It’s an immersive and digital place where people interact via their avatars. Big tech players like Meta (formerly known as Facebook) and other independent players have been designing their own version of a metaverse. NFTs can have utility for users like buying, trading, winning, accessing, experiencing or interacting with things inside a metaverse.
Mfer
Short for “mother fker”.
Miners
Single person or company that mines one or more cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum. Both blockchains need computing power for their Proof of Work consensus mechanism. Miners provide the computing power and receive coins/tokens in return as payment.
Mining
Mining is the process by which new tokens enter in circulation as for example in the Bitcoin blockchain. Also, mining ensures the validity of new transactions happening in a given blockchain that uses the PoW consensus mechanism. Therefore, the ones who mine are rewarded by ensuring the validity of a blockchain.
Mint/Minting
Mint an NFT is the act of publishing your unique instance to a specific blockchain like Ethereum or Tezos blockchain. In simpler terms, a creator is adding a one-of-kind token (NFT) into circulation in a specific blockchain.
Once the NFT is minted - aka created - NFT collectors can i) direct mint, therefore purchase the NFT by paying the specified amount directly into the project’s wallet. Or ii) buy it via an intermediary like an NFT marketplace (e.g: OpenSea, Foundation, Rarible, etc.). Later, the NFT owner can choose to resell the NFT, most NFT creators set up a royalty for every time their NFT is resold.
Minting interval
How often an NFT creator can mint or create tokens.
MOAR
A misspelling that means “more”.
Moon/Mooning
When a coin (e.g. ETH), or token, like an NFT goes exponential in price and the price graph sees a vertical climb. Crypto or NFT users then use the expression that “X token is going to the moon!”.
Moon boys
Slang for crypto or NFT holders who are looking to pump the price dramatically - taking a token to the moon - for short term gains and with no real long term vision or commitment.
N
Never trust, always verify
Treat everyone or every project like something potentially malicious.
New coiner
Crypto slang for someone new to the cryptocurrency space. Usually newcomers can be more susceptible to FUD or scammers.
NFA
Acronym for Not Financial Advice.
NFT
Acronym for Non-Fungible Token. The type of token that can be created, bought, sold, resold and viewed in different dapps. The ERC-721 smart contract standard (Ethereum blockchain) is the most popular amongst NFTs.
NFT Marketplace / NFT Auction platform
Platforms where people can sell and buy NFTs, either via an auction or pay the seller’s price. The largest NFT marketplace is OpenSea. But there are other popular NFT marketplace examples like Foundation, SuperRare, Nifty Gateway, Rarible, Hic et Nunc (HeN), etc.
NFT Whale
A NFT collector or investor who buys a large amount of NFTs.
NGMI
Acronym for Not Going to Make It. For example, something said to someone who has paper hands.
NMP
Acronym for Not My Problem.
Nocoiner
It can be someone who simply doesn’t hold cryptocurrencies, mistrust the crypto market or believes that crypto is either a scam or a ponzi scheme.
Noob/N00b/Newbie
Slang for someone new or not experienced in cryptocurrency or NFTs. These people are more susceptible to scams, drawn into pump and dumps or getting rekt on bad coins.
Normie/Normy
Similar expression for a nocoiner.
NSFW
Acronym for Not Suitable For Work. Referring to online content inappropriate for viewing in public or at work. It began as mostly a tag for sexual content, nudity, or violence, but it has envolved to range a number of other topics that might be delicate or trigger viewers.
Nuclear NFTs
An NFT or collectible with more than 1,000 owners. For the NFT to be sold or resold, every co-owners must give their permission beforehand. Otherwise, the NFT transaction can’t be made.
O
OG
Acronym for Original Gangster and it popularized by 90s Hip Hop culture. It means the first, the original or the person who has been around since the very start and earned respect in the community. In NFT terms, Cryptopunks are the OG of NFTs.
On-chain vs Off-chain
An on-chain NFT is when the artwork (like a jpeg, video or music file) is stored directly into the blockchain making it more secure and less susceptible to being stolen. But, note that most blockchains can only store small amounts of data.
Off-chain NFTs means that the high quality image, music or video file is not stored in the blockchain. But, the NFT data is stored on an external party like a) a centralized server, highly vulnerable to the server being shut down/exploited. Or b) an InterPlanetary File System (IPFS), also an external party but more secure way of finding data because it utilizes a distributed, decentralized system.
OpenSea
By far the largest NFT marketplace in the world, currently.
P
Paper Hands
A crypto or NFT holder who is permeable to negative market sentiment or FUD. And does not hold their crypto or NFT for long. Expression used to describe someone who sells as soon as NFTs enter a bear market.
PFP
Stands for Picture For Profile. Twitter users who hold popular NFTs like Crypto Punk or BAYC use their punk or monkey avatar as their profile picture.
POAP NFT
Stands for Proof of Attendance Protocol. These types of NFTs are awarded to attendees of events, regardless if they’re physical or virtual, as proof you attended.
PoS
Stands for Proof of Stake. A consensus mechanism used by blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum to achieve agreement, trust and security in every transaction and keep the integrity of the blockchain intact. PoS mechanisms are considered more environmentally friendly than PoW as they’re lower energy and in emissions.
PoW
Stands for Proof of Work. A consensus mechanism used by blockchains like Bitcoin to achieve agreement, trust and security and keep the transactional integrity of the blockchain intact. PoW mechanism requires a lot of computational power, therefore uses more energy resources and higher CO2 emissions than the PoS mechanism.
Private Key
It can be similar to a password. It’s a secret number that allows users to access their cold or hot wallet funds, prove ownership of a certain address and sign transactions on the blockchain.
It’s not advisable to share a private key with anyone as it makes a person vulnerable to thefts. In case someone loses or forgets its private key, it can use a recovery phrase to restore access to a crypto or NFT wallet.
Pre-mine
A term used in crypto to refer to the act of creating a set amount of tokens before their public launch. It can also be known as a Genesis Sale and is usually associated with Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in order to compensate founders, developers or early investors.
Probably nothing
It’s an ironic expression used by NFT enthusiasts to refer to an important or soon to be big news, project or person in the NFT space. Meaning when someone says probably nothing it actually means that it is probably something.
Protocol Coin
Stands for the native coin of a blockchain. As in Ether for the Ethereum blockchain or BTC on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Pump & Dump
The term pump means when a person or a group of people buy or convince others to buy large quantities of a crypto or an NFT with the single goal to drive the price to a peak. When the price peaks, these people sell their position high and for a hefty profit, therefore dumping the price and leaving other slower investors or newbies rekt or at a loss.
R
Rarity
Rarity in NFT terms refers to how rare an NFT is. The rarity can be defined by the number of traits, scarcity or properties of an NFT.
Reaching
Slang for an exaggeration over something to make it sound worse than what it actually is or to take a point/scenario too far.
Recovery phrase
A 12-word phrase that acts like backup for your crypto private keys. A person can recover all of the crypto wallet accounts’ private keys from the recovery phrase. Is not advisable to share the recovery phrase with anyone.
Rekt
Slang for wrecked. When a crypto or NFT project goes wrong or down in value sharply. Or more broadly, when something goes wrong like a person is price out by the gas surge or an NFT floor price goes down.
Right Click Save As
An Ironic expression used by people who don’t understand the value or potential unlocked by NFTs. Person who makes fun that she/he can easily get a digital artwork by Right Click Save As and mock the NFT space and its hype.
Roadmap
The strategy outlined by an NFT project. A way to explain to the NFT community or a potential NFT investor, the different stages, value and the long term vision of the NFT project.
Royalties
NFT creators can set up their NFT so each time their NFT is resold, the creator gets paid a percentage of the sale price.
RN
Acronym for Right Now.
Rug Pull/Rugged
Slang for a scam when the founders, team or developers suddenly leave a crypto project and run away with all the investors’ funds leaving them with nothing.
S
Satoshi Nakamoto
The anonymous creator of the Bitcoin whitepaper and whose identity has never been verified.
Scammer
Someone actively trying to steal other people’s crypto or NFTs.
Secondary
Secondary refers to secondary NFT marketplaces, where NFT collectors or investors can resell NFTs after they’ve been minted. The price of an NFT or NFT collection is determined by those who list them.
Seed phrase
Another name for recovery phrase is the 12-word phrase that allows you to recover all of the crypto wallet accounts’ private keys and regain control of the wallet. Is not advisable to share the seed phrase with anyone.
Seems legit
When an NFT project or a person in the NFT community looks promising and the real deal, meaning seems legitimate. Depending on the context can also be used ironically.
Seems rare
An ironic expression or dismissive comment used by the NFT community. For example, It can be used sarcastically when someone asks for feedback on an NFT they own or created.
Ser
Slang for sir and a polite way of addressing others in an NFT community.
Shill
Expression when someone wants to promote or get exposure to an NFT they own or created.
Shill Thread
It’s a common Twitter strategy to gain traction by encouraging NFT creators to share a link to their NFT project in the hopes of getting bought or noticed by the NFT Community and potential buyers.
Simp/Simping
A NFT holder or creator who comes off as trying to hard impress an NFT whale or investor.
Sh*tposter
A person who mostly posts meme content on Twitter for fun.
SLP
Acronym for Smooth Love Potion. It’s a token players can earn as a reward in the NFT game Axie Infinity.
Smart Contract
A self-executing contract where the terms of the agreement between buyer and seller are directly written into the code and without third party or human intervention. Ethereum is a blockchain that can execute smart contracts, on the contrary to Bitcoin which does not have that capability.
SMFH
Acronym for Shaking My F*cking Head. Common reply to a person showing unbelievable idiocy.
Sock Puppet
Scam account used to lure noob investors into fake investment services.
Snag
It means to buy an NFT quickly and for a very low price. Can also be known as sniping.
Sotheby’s
Very famous auction house that has recently auctioned Beeple’s NFTs or Bored Ape Yacht Club and Crypto Punks’ NFT collections.
Stake
Crypto term for locking up a certain amount of crypto tokens for a set period of time to earn interest. In the NFT space, there are popping up a lot of projects or services that allow NFT holders to earn interest for holding a certain NFT.
Szn
Stands for season referring to crypto or NFT market cycles.
T
TINA
Acronym for There Is No Alternative. Example: someone asks “why are you investing in BTC?”, to which the reply is “TINA”.
TINA RIF
Acronym for There Is No Alternative Resistance Is Futile.
This is the way
A commendation for positive behavior by someone in the NFT Community.
Tokenomics
Referring to the economics of cryptocurrencies, DeFi or NFT projects.
V
Valhalla
Ironic use of the Viking “heaven”. Meaning someone’s NFT collection is either going to be a profitable and blue chip project, therefore they can ascend to Valhalla or is going to tank and that person will have to work at a Mcdonald’s.
Vibe
Term used to express a positive emotional state.
Volatile/Volatility
Term used to describe rapid market fluctuations and crypto or NFT prices go up and down quickly in a short period.
W
WAGMI
Acronym for We Are Going to Make It. Rally cry to build momentum for a crypto or NFT project and lead even more people into buying, shilling or supporting a specific project.
Wallet
There can be a hot or cold wallet, but both are a place where someone can store their cryptocurrency and tokens. Hot wallets are always connected to the Internet like MetaMask, Trust wallet or Phantom. On the contrary cold wallets are hardware wallets to store crypto or NFTs offline like Nano Ledger.
Weak Hands
Synonymous with Paper Hands. Someone who immediately sells their crypto or NFT because of a bear market, FUD or any other negative sentiment.
Web 1.0
Refers to the beginning of the Web. A period from around 1990 to 2005, also known as the read-only web.
Web 2.0
Refers to an iteration of Web 1.0. From 2005 to the present moment, where social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Google, Twitter, etc reshaped the web, therefore becoming the read-write web.
Web 3.0
A term coined by Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood and it’s an idea of what the future of the web could look like. Most peoples’ data, info or content would no longer be centralized in Web 2.0 giants - the Big Tech - but decentralized, mostly thanks to blockchain technology. Web 3.0 could be known as read-write-trust web.
Wen
As in When.
Wen Moon
Popular expression from crypto Twitter not so much in the NFT space. Refers to the still distant future when a token will moon.
Whitepaper
Document released by a crypto or NFT project where it lays the technical information behind the concept, vision, roadmap and plans to grow a certain project.
Whale
Someone who owns a large position on a specific or many cryptos or NFTs.
Y
Yodo
Acronym for You Only Die Once. The opposite of Yolo.
Yolo
Acronym for You Only Live Once. A person can use this when they just realized they bought a shitcoin or crap NFT and they’re getting rekt.
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